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After fires and floods, climate-conscious independents could determine Australian election

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© Reuters. Local residents Fiona and Ian Stuart stand near blackened trees on their property, burnt during the bushfires of the “Black Summer,” in Yatte Yattah, Australia, April 11, 2022. Picture taken April 11, 2022. REUTERS/Jill Gralow

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By Kate Lamb

SYDNEY (Reuters) – After some of the worst fires and floods ever to hit Australia, a new cohort of climate-conscious independents are threatening to shake up the federal election on Saturday, putting the government under pressure in key districts and potentially reshaping the country’s political landscape.

Enraged by the lack of government action on climate change, the candidates are campaigning hard on environmental issues in the hope of wooing moderate voters away from the major parties. 

“There is deep frustration that real action hasn’t been taken on climate change,” said Allegra Spender, 44, an independent candidate in the wealthy Sydney electoral district of Wentworth. “It’s become ideological rather than based on science and business, and that’s what people are seeking: just a rational, proportional response to the evidence.”

Spender, a former analyst with McKinsey & Co, is one of more than 20 independent candidates, predominately women, who are running for seats in traditionally conservative, mostly urban districts, and who draw some of their funding from Climate 200, a fund set up three years ago to back candidates looking to advance climate policy.

About half a dozen of these candidates have come to be known as the “teal independents,” reflecting the combination of their appeal to ‘blue’ moderate liberals and ‘green’ stance on climate change.

Opinion polls show the group is gaining traction among voters with their environmental, anti-corruption and gender equality policies, posing a threat to the established parties which have trodden lightly around the climate issue for fear of alienating voters in a country that is one of the world’s largest exporters of coal and gas.

Liberal Party leader Scott Morrison, who became prime minister in August 2018, seems likely to lose power at the election, ending nine years of conservative government. A poll conducted last week suggested the Labor Party would win 80 seats, more than the 76 needed for majority government. The poll showed the current government could be reduced to 63 seats with the remaining eight seats won by minor parties and independents. If the polls are wrong, as they were at the last election, a hung parliament where independents hold the balance of power is possible.

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg – the country’s most senior finance minister and widely seen as the next leader of the Liberal Party – is in danger of losing his Melbourne seat of Kooyong to a teal independent, neurologist Monique Ryan, according to a recent poll. Another independent, former journalist Zoe Daniel, is leading a poll in her Melbourne seat.

Spender appears to be attracting voters across the spectrum in Wentworth, which includes Bondi and some of the country’s most affluent harbourside areas.

“Climate change,” said 36-year-old Jess Daniel, when asked about her top priority after casting an early ballot in Bondi. “I have a little one and I am thinking of him, not just the here and now.”

After 58 years of voting conservative, Ian Tresise has donned the teal T-shirt and joined Spender’s army of 1,000 volunteers. 

“The world’s going to be cooked at 3 degrees,” he told Reuters, referring to global warming, as he handed out flyers at a Bondi pre-polling booth. “It’s getting pretty cooked at 1.5.” 

The goal of the Paris Agreement, which came into force in 2016, is to limit global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius, preferably to 1.5 degrees, compared to pre-industrial levels.

‘RACK AND RUIN’

A survey published by the Lowy Institute independent think-tank last May showed that concern over climate change is rising, with 60% of Australians agreeing that “global warming is a serious and pressing problem,” up from 56% the year before.

But away from the big cities, in areas which have experienced some of the country’s worst natural disasters in the last few years, opinions remain deeply divided.

In Conjola, a quiet holiday town on the south coast of New South Wales, some doubt climate change has anything to do with the fires that ripped through the town in the so-called “Black Summer” of 2019-2020, or the floods that followed weeks after, and again in recent months. The fires came after Australia’s hottest and driest year on record.

“These days we sneeze and its climate change,” said Barry, 59, who witnessed the Conjola fires. He asked to use his first name only, for fear of being targeted by climate activists.

For some in Conjola, as in the nation’s coal and gas heartlands, distrust of climate science is fused with concerns over jobs and rising living costs, which opinion polls show are still the most important issues for voters. Inflation hit a 20-year high in the first three months of the year, and voters are feeling the pinch as interest rates start to rise.

The fossil fuel industry is a significant employer in every Australian state. Mining accounts for 11.5% of the country’s economic output and fossil fuels make up about a quarter of total exports, according to Australia’s central bank.

“It’s a climate change election in that I want to vote for the government that is going to do the least,” said Barry. “Because closing coal-fired powered stations is going to cost jobs.”

Another Conjola resident, Samantha Kneeshaw, a high school science teacher who survived the fires by jumping in her pool with a scuba tank, said climate was the most important issue for her in the upcoming election.

“It is going to cause rack and ruin for so many people,” she said. “I cannot fathom this government getting back in again and not doing anything, because Australia is so crucial to this climate debate.” 

SHIFTING THE BALANCE

To achieve the Paris Agreement goal of keeping global warming under 2 degrees, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says the world needs to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050.

Australia is well below that and was branded a “holdout” by United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in March. At global climate change talks in Glasgow last year, Australia refused to commit to phasing out coal or increase its carbon emission reduction targets.

Morrison’s coalition government has pledged to reduce emissions by 26% to 28% below 2005 levels by 2030 and hit net zero emissions by 2050, among the least ambitious of developed nations. But divisions within conservative ranks have raised questions over their commitment to the targets. In April, one Nationals senator in Queensland declared the government’s net-zero 2050 target “dead.”

After years of climate wars, many of Australia’s politicians have shied away from promoting renewable energy or trying to wean the country off fossil fuels for fear of a backlash from industry and some voters.

On the campaign trail, Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce, the leader of the Nationals, said he would not use the term “transition” applied to a move to cleaner energy as it “equals unemployment.” The opposition Labor Party is only slightly more ambitious, pledging a 43% reduction in emissions by 2030.

That has given the teal independents room to campaign on much more aggressive emissions targets. The group has already had an impact on the country’s politics, and has put establishment parties on the defensive.

New South Wales treasurer and energy minister Matt Kean, representing the Liberal Party, warned voters specifically not to vote for the teal candidates running against progressive Liberal Party candidates.

“To see what happens when the progressive voices are removed from centre-right political parties, just look at the Republican Party in the United States,” Kean said in an opinion piece published in the Sydney Morning Herald last weekend.

Frank Jotzo, a climate economist and professor at the Australian National University, said a general shift toward firmer climate change policies was underway.

“The fact that some of these climate change independents are getting so much interest and support in their respective electorates will shift the balance and is already shifting the balance among the parties they are competing with, in particular the Liberal Party.”

Commodities

Why Russian oil and gas price cap is easier said than done

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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Model of petrol pump is seen in front of EU and Russian flag colors in this illustration taken March 25, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

LONDON (Reuters) – G7 leaders have agreed to study possible price caps on Russian oil and gas to try to limit Moscow’s ability to fund its invasion of Ukraine, G7 officials said on Tuesday.

The officials, who include U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, say the measure will limit the price that Russia receives for energy while allowing Western consumers to continue getting supply.

Below are some of the most commonly asked questions about the price cap and challenges it could face.

HAS IT BEEN DONE BEFORE?

A somewhat similar mechanism was established as part of the oil-for-food programme by the United Nations in 1995 to allow Iraq to sell oil in exchange for food and medicine.

The programme, introduced by U.S. President Bill Clinton’s administration was meant to meet the humanitarian needs of ordinary Iraqis while preventing Saddam Hussein’s government from boosting military capabilities.

Oil buyers paid money into an escrow account run by BNP Paribas (OTC:BNPQY) bank. The money was used to pay for war reparations to Kuwait, U.N. operations in Iraq and Iraq was allowed to purchase regulated items with any remaining funds.

The programme suffered from widespread corruption and abuse.

While the United Nations was united in opposing Saddam Hussein’s government, the body is divided over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which Russia calls a “special military operation”.

China, India and Pakistan are among 35 countries that have refused to condemn Russia. China and India have become the biggest buyers of heavily-discounted Russian oil as Europe cut imports.

WHAT’S THE GOAL OF A BUYERS’ CARTEL?

Western officials say they want to encourage sales of Russian oil at levels slightly above production costs to ensure Russia’s earnings are reduced while it maintains production.

Today, Russia receives more revenue than before the invasion began on Feb. 24 as global price rises have offset the impact of sanctions.

Tamas Varga from oil broker PVM said the price cap idea amounted to evidence that outright bans on Russian oil have been counterproductive as Russian revenues have increased.

But creating a buyers’ cartel to starve Russia of petrodollars while alleviating inflationary pressure from oil prices is challenging.

“The big unknown is Vladimir Putin’s reaction,” said Varga.

If Russian President Vladimir Putin decides to reduce oil or gas exports the plan will backfire and lead to a rise in prices: “It is a nightmare scenario – both for Europe and Russia.”

The Kremlin said on Tuesday that Russian gas giant Gazprom (MCX:GAZP) could seek to revise its delivery contracts if Western countries implemented a price cap on Russian gas.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said he could not comment on how much the move would cost Russia.

WHAT LEVEL FOR THE CAP?

With benchmark Brent prices at $110-$120 per barrel, Russian oil sells at heavy discounts of $30-$40 per barrel and Chinese and Indian buyers are snapping it up.

“G7 countries want to reduce Russian oil revenues and this implies a price cap well below what buyers are currently paying. Some campaigners advocate for a very aggressive reduction, pointing to Russia’s low production costs and arguing it would continue to sell oil at any price above this level,” said Richard Mallinson from Energy Aspects.

Russian production costs are $3-$4 per barrel and Russian firms could probably profit even if oil prices were $25-$30 per barrel.

The Dutch wholesale gas price for July, the European benchmark, has risen around 43% since the start of the year to $127.60 euros per megawatt hour.

European imports of Russian pipeline gas have dropped sharply after Gazprom this month reduced capacity of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which rus under the Baltic Sea to Germany, capacity to 40%.

The EU energy chief said on Monday that “serious disruption” to gas supplies from Russia is likely.

CAN THE CAP WORK VIA SHIPPING INSURANCE?

Imposing a price cap on Russian oil sales could be done via shipping insurance, Louise Dickson from Rystad and Mallinson said.

The International Group of Protection & Indemnity Clubs in London covers around 95% of the global oil shipping fleet.

Russian oil buyers could be offered a waiver from the ban on European shipping insurance, which takes effect in early December, if they are paying at or below the price cap.

However, there are many obstacles.

“The most obvious is that Russia might not agree to sell at those prices, particularly if the cap is very low and close to production cost,” said Dickson.

“In fact, Putin has already shown his willingness to withhold supplies of natural gas to EU countries that refused to meet payment demands”.

The next obstacle would be China, which could accept Russian insurance, said Dickson.

State-controlled Russian National Reinsurance Company (RNRC) has become the main reinsurer of Russian ships.

WILL CHINA AND INDIA COOPERATE?

India has provided safety certification for dozens of ships, enabling Russian oil exports.

“Russia and some buyers are already finding alternatives to European insurance markets, using a combination of local insurers and sovereign guarantees. So this mechanism would not force full participation in a price cap,” said Mallinson.

In addition, European insurers might not want to be responsible for monitoring the price cap and could decide to avoid covering such deals even if waivers are available, he said.

The EU would also need to amend the sanctions it passed at the end of May, which would require unanimous support.

“Given the difficult negotiations in May, some countries are worried about reopening this issue and giving Hungary and others another opportunity to push for concessions,” Mallinson said.

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Commodities

G7 agrees to explore cap on Russian oil price – communique

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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Yang Mei Hu oil products tanker owned by COSCO Shipping gets moored at the crude oil terminal Kozmino on the shore of Nakhodka Bay near the port city of Nakhodka, Russia June 13, 2022. REUTERS/Tatiana Meel/File Photo

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By Andreas Rinke and Angelo Amante

SCHLOSS ELMAU, Germany (Reuters) – The Group of Seven economic powers have agreed to explore imposing a ban on transporting Russian oil that has been sold above a certain price, they said on Tuesday.

“We invite all like-minded countries to consider joining us in our actions,” the G7 leaders said in the communique.

The war in Ukraine and its dramatic economic fallout, in particular soaring food and energy inflation, has dominated this year’s summit of the group of rich democracies at a castle resort in the Bavarian Alps.

The G7 is looking at price caps as a way to prevent Moscow profiting from its invasion of Ukraine, which has sharply raised energy prices, taking the sting out of Western efforts to reduce imports of Russian oil and gas.

Russian oil export revenues climbed in May even as volumes fell, the International Energy Agency said in its June monthly report.

A ceiling on how much other countries pay Russia for oil would squeeze Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “resources that he has to wage war and secondly increase stability and the security of supply in global oil markets,” a senior U.S. administration official said on Tuesday.

G7 leaders have also agreed to push for a ban on imports of Russian gold as part of efforts to tighten the sanctions squeeze on Moscow, an EU official said on Tuesday.

The war, which has killed thousands and sent millions fleeing, entered its fifth month with no signs of abating.

Firefighters and soldiers searched on Tuesday for survivors in the rubble of a shopping mall in central Ukraine struck by a Russian missile.

TACKLING FOOD INSECURITY

G7 nations want to crank up pressure on Russia without stoking already soaring inflation that is causing strains at home and savaging developing nations.

There is a “real risk” of multiple famines this year as the Ukraine war has compounded the negative impact of climate crises and the COVID-19 pandemic on food security, United Nations chief Antonio Guterres said last week.

G7 leaders pledged $4.5 billion on Tuesday to fight global hunger, according to the communique.

The United States will provide over half of that sum, which would go to efforts to fight hunger in 47 countries and fund regional organisations, a senior U.S. official said.

The G7 is attempting to rally emerging countries, many with close ties to Russia, to oppose Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, and invited five major middle-and-low income democracies to the summit to win them over.

Some are more concerned with the impact of soaring food prices at home, blaming Western sanctions, not Russia’s invasion of one of the world’s top grain producers and blockade of its ports, for the shortages.

Asked if G7 leaders had found a way to let Ukraine export its grain, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Tuesday: “We’re working on it, we’re all working on it”.

G7 leaders also committed on Tuesday to creating an international “Climate Club” to forge cooperation on climate change and made pledges on decarbonising industrial sectors.

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Commodities

G7 agrees to study Russian energy price caps, raise $5 billion to tackle hunger

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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Yang Mei Hu oil products tanker owned by COSCO Shipping gets moored at the crude oil terminal Kozmino on the shore of Nakhodka Bay near the port city of Nakhodka, Russia June 13, 2022. REUTERS/Tatiana Meel/File Photo

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By Angelo Amante and Philip Blenkinsop

GARMISCH-PARTENKIRCHEN, Germany (Reuters) – G7 leaders have agreed to study placing global price caps on imports of Russian energy to curb Moscow’s ability to fund its invasion of Ukraine and to contribute up to $5 billion to address global food insecurity, officials said on Tuesday.

The war in Ukraine and its dramatic economic fallout, in particular soaring food and energy inflation, has dominated this year’s summit of the group of rich democracies at a castle resort in the Bavarian Alps.

The European Union will explore with international partners ways to curb Russian energy prices, including the feasibility of introducing temporary import price caps, a section of the final G7 communique seen by Reuters said. The officials said this meant both oil and gas.

The G7 has been debating price caps as a way to prevent Moscow profiting from its invasion of Ukraine, which has sharply raised energy prices, cushioning the impact of Western moves to reduce imports of Russian oil and gas.

Russian oil export revenues climbed in May even though export volumes fell, the International Energy Agency said in its June monthly report.

A cap on the price other countries pay Russia for oil would squeeze Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “resources that he has to wage war and secondly increase stability and the security of supply in global oil markets”, a senior U.S. administration official said on Tuesday.

The idea is to tie financial services, insurance and the shipping of oil cargoes to a cap on Russian oil prices. So if a shipper or importer wanted these services, they would have to commit to the Russian oil being sold for a set maximum price.

Italy, whose economy is reliant on Russian energy, pushed to extend the price cap to gas.

Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi last week warned of the need to tackle energy prices to contain inflation and said the main objection to a gas cap from fellow Europeans was fear it could lead Russia to reduce supplies further.

France has said the price cap mechanism should extend beyond Russian products to reduce prices more broadly, including for the G7 nations that are looking to source energy from elsewhere.

France supports the language in the final communique but it remains unclear how such a mechanism would work and needs “thorough” discussions, a French official said.

G7 leaders have also agreed to push for a ban on imports of Russian gold as part of efforts to tighten the sanctions squeeze on Moscow, an EU official said on Tuesday.

Britain, the United States, Japan and Canada agreed at the start of the G7 summit on Sunday that they would ban imports of newly mined or refined Russian gold, while the European Union expressed some reservations.

TACKLING FOOD INSECURITY

G7 nations, which generate nearly half the world’s economic output, want to crank up pressure on Russia without stoking already soaring inflation that is causing strains at home and savaging developing nations.

There is a “real risk” of multiple famines this year as the Ukraine war has compounded the negative impact of climate crises and the COVID-19 pandemic on food security, United Nations chief Antonio Guterres said last week.

The G7 will commit up to $5 billion to improve global food security, the senior U.S. official said, with the United States providing over half of that sum, which would go to efforts to fight hunger in 47 countries and fund regional organisations.

The G7 is attempting to rally emerging countries, many with close ties to Russia, to oppose Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, and invited five major middle-and-low income democracies to the summit to win them over.

Some are more concerned at the impact of soaring food prices on their populations, blaming Western sanctions, not Russia’s invasion of one of the world’s largest grain producers and blockade of its ports, for the shortages.

Asked if G7 leaders had found a way to let Ukraine export its grain, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Tuesday: “We’re working on it, we’re all working on it”.

The G7 leaders have also agreed to take a more coordinated approach to challenging China’s “market-distorting” practices in global trade, the U.S. official said.

“You’ll see leaders release a collective statement, which is unprecedented in the context of the G7, acknowledging the harms caused by China’s non-transparent, market-distorting industrial directives,” the official said on Tuesday.

Among their commitments was one to accelerate efforts to remove forced labour, including state-backed forced labour, from global supply chains, the official added

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