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Commodities

Commodity prices fall after Donald Trump elected US President

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By Naveen Thukral, Emily Chow and Nina Chestney

SINGAPORE/LONDON (Reuters) -Commodities from oil and gas to metals and grains dropped on Wednesday as the dollar rallied and victory for Republican Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election stoked concerns about tariffs and economic growth.

Trump recaptured the White House by securing more than the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the presidency, following a campaign of dark rhetoric that deepened the polarization in the country.

Oil prices fell by more than 1% on pressure from the U.S. dollar rally, which was set for its biggest one-day rise since March 2023 against major peers. [USD/]

Investors believe Trump’s presidency will bolster the dollar as interest rates may need to remain high to combat inflation that would stem from new tariffs.

A stronger U.S. dollar makes greenback-denominated commodities such as oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Precious metals also fell, with gold sliding to a near three-week low, while lost more than 2%, making it the worst performer of the base metals complex.

“Gold will be torn between the risk of rising inflation, potentially slowing the pace of U.S. rate cuts, as tariffs are rolled out and continued demand for safe haven assets,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said.

Commodity prices started to fall overnight as traders started to price in the likelihood of a Trump win.

“This scenario is expected to bring about the promised tariffs on imported goods, particularly targeting China, potentially triggering a new wave of trade tensions and economic disruptions,” Hansen added.

However, Trump could renew sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, removing oil barrels from the market, which would be bullish, said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. Iran exports about 1.3 million barrels per day.

Benchmark European gas prices also fell by nearly 3% amid concerns about gas supplies and Trump’s stance on the Middle East conflict and Russia-Ukraine war.

China’s industrial metals and steel industries could face headwinds as Trump has pledged to impose blanket 60% tariffs on Chinese goods to boost U.S. manufacturing.

“China’s steel prices will undertake more downward pressure if Trump wins the election, and domestic steelmakers may face even more severe losses,” said Ge Xin, deputy director at Lange Steel Research Centre. 

“This is because Trump will be more aggressive in terms of measures against China.”

The copper market was pricing in the possible roll-back of U.S. electrification initiatives, including subsidies for electric vehicles, which would dampen demand.

Agricultural commodities were also hit, with soybean futures in particular trading lower. Wheat and corn were seen as less exposed to renewed trade tensions with China.

A stronger dollar makes U.S. grain more expensive overseas, while tariffs proposed by Trump could disrupt U.S. agricultural trade, with soybeans particularly reliant on sales to leading importer China.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Soybean plants begin to show signs of growth at Mark Tuttle's soy farm in Somonauk, Illinois, U.S., May 30, 2024.  REUTERS/Jim Vondruska/File Photo

There are also fears that China could respond with retaliatory measures, potentially reducing U.S. exports of key crops and creating downward pressure on prices.

Shares in European clean energy companies also fell as Trump has vowed to scrap offshore wind projects through an executive order on his first day in office.

Commodities

US deepens sanctions on Iran’s ‘shadow’ oil fleet

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By Doina Chiacu, Susan Heavey and Florence Tan

WASHINGTON/SINGAPORE (Reuters) -The Biden administration on Tuesday ramped up sanctions on Iran, targeting 35 entities and vessels it said carried illicit Iranian petroleum to foreign markets as part of what the U.S. Treasury Department called Tehran’s “shadow fleet.”

The sanctions build on those imposed on Oct. 11 and come in response to Iran’s Oct. 1 attack on Israel and to its announced nuclear escalations, the Treasury Department said in a statement.

“Iran continues to funnel revenues from its petroleum trade toward the development of its nuclear program, proliferation of its ballistic missile and unmanned aerial vehicle technology, and sponsorship of its regional terrorist proxies, risking further destabilizing the region,” Acting Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Bradley Smith said.

“The United States remains committed to disrupting the shadow fleet of vessels and operators that facilitate these illicit activities, using the full range of our tools and authorities.”

Such sanctions target key sectors of Iran’s economy with the aim of denying the government funds for its nuclear and missile programs. The move generally prohibits any U.S. individuals or entities from doing any business with the targets and freezes any U.S.-held assets.

Eight of the 21 sanctioned ships are loaded with oil, while another was on its way to a Russian port to lift a cargo, shipping data on LSEG Workspace showed.

Suezmax-sized tanker Min Hang loaded Russian Urals crude at Ust-Luga port on Nov. 17 and is heading to Port Said in Egypt while Vesna, an Aframax-sized tanker, is heading to the Pacific port of Kozmino to load Russian ESPO Blend crude on Dec. 8, the data showed.

The Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) Phonix was due to discharge its cargo at the port of Rizhao in China’s eastern province of Shandong while medium-range tanker Rio Napo was set to offload its naphtha cargo at Sohar port on Dec. 4.

Off Malaysia, fully-laden VLCC Elva is anchored along with VLCCs FT Island and Yuri which appear to be empty.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Iran's and U.S.' flags are seen printed on paper in this illustration taken January 27, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

VLCC Bertha is moving away from western Africa after loading Nigerian Egina crude.

Two other tankers – Lady Lucy and Merope – are loaded with fuel oil while tanker Tonil is carrying naphtha.

 

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Commodities

Gold prices steady as S.Korea turmoil spurs some haven demand; Powell awaited

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Investing.com– Gold prices rose marginally in Asian trade on Wednesday as political turmoil in South Korea spurred some safe haven demand, although anticipation of more cues on U.S. interest rates kept traders to the sidelines.

The yellow metal saw some relief this week as fears of a collapse in the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire also spurred haven demand. But any gains in gold were largely limited by a spike in the dollar, as the greenback soared on uncertainty over the long term outlook for U.S. rates.

rose 0.1% to $2,646.53 an ounce, while expiring in February rose 0.1% to $2,668.60 an ounce by 23:25 ET (04:25 GMT). 

S.Korea in focus after failed martial law declaration

South Korea President Yoon Suk-Yeol declared martial law on Tuesday, although he swiftly rescinded the move after it was heavily opposed by the Parliament and citizens. 

The Parliament entirely voted against martial law, while South Korea’s opposition party also called for Yoon’s impeachment, putting the country into its worst political crisis since the 1980s. 

Political uncertainty in the country undermined investor sentiment across Asia, given that South Korea is regarded as a pillar for the East Asian economy. This spurred some safe haven demand for gold.

Increased tensions between Israel and Lebanon also spurred some safe haven buying, after Israel threatened to hold Lebanon’s government accountable for a collapse in its ceasefire with Hezbollah. Both Israel and the militant group launched strikes against each other over the past week, violating a U.S.-brokered truce.

Metal markets pressured by dollar strength before Powell speech 

Broader metal prices were muted on Wednesday as traders awaited an address by for more cues on interest rates. 

Powell is set to speak later in the day, with his address coming just weeks before the Fed’s final meeting for the year.

While the central bank is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in December, the long term outlook for rates has grown more uncertain in the face of sticky inflation and inflationary policies under Trump.

This uncertainty sparked sharp gains in the , pressuring metal prices across the board.

Other precious metals, including and , moved little on Wednesday. Among industrial metals, benchmark on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.3% to $9,096.0 a ton, while February fell 0.2% to $4.1895 a pound. 

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Commodities

Oil prices steady ahead of imminent OPEC+ decision; geopolitical turmoil in focus

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By Arunima Kumar

(Reuters) -Oil prices were little changed on Wednesday, with traders expecting OPEC+ to announce an extension to supply cuts this week while heightened geopolitical tensions continue to dominate market sentiment.

futures were up 5 cents, or 0.07%, at $73.67 a barrel by 1214 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 4 cents, or 0.06%, to $69.90.

On Tuesday, Brent posted its biggest gain in two weeks, rising by 2.5%.

A shaky ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, South Korea’s curtailed declaration of martial law and a rebel offensive in Syria that threatens to draw in forces from several oil-producing countries all lent support to oil prices, said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova.

In the Middle East, Israel said on Tuesday that it would return to war with Hezbollah if their truce collapses and that its attacks would go deeper into Lebanon and target the state itself.

In South Korea, meanwhile, lawmakers have submitted a bill to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol after his declaration of martial law on Tuesday, which was reversed within hours, sparking a political crisis in Asia’s fourth-largest economy.

However, the bullish momentum hasn’t pushed crude past the $75 resistance, indicating market sensitivity to geopolitical and economic developments may be waning, said Dilin Wu, research strategist at Pepperstone.

“With OPEC+ widely expected to extend its 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary production cut into the first quarter of 2025, prices are likely to stay range-bound unless a new catalyst emerges,” Wu said.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, together known as OPEC+, are likely extend output cuts until the end of the first quarter next year when members meet on Thursday, industry sources told Reuters.

OPEC+ has been looking to phase out supply cuts through next year.

“Neither geopolitics and OPEC+ action nor sanguine financial data will alter the underlying fundamental outlook. Protracted attempts to push oil towards $80 a barrel will be reined in by supply checks and loose oil balances,” said PVM oil analyst Tamas Varga.

U.S., crude oil inventories rose 1.2 million barrels last week, market sources said, citing data from the American Petroleum Institute. [API/S]

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The sun sets behind a crude oil pump jack on a drill pad in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, U.S. November 24, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo

Gasoline stocks also rose, by 4.6 million barrels, even though the week included Thanksgiving, when demand typically rises.

Official data on oil stocks from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is due on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. ET (1530 GMT). Analysts polled by Reuters expect crude stocks to decline by 700,000 barrels and gasoline stocks to rise by 639,000 barrels.

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