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Crude oil prices forecast: Swiss analysts predict $110 a barrel

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crude oil prices forecast

New crude oil prices forecast. In the second half of 2023, world prices for Brent crude oil will rise to $110 per barrel, and in the coming months will exceed the threshold of a hundred dollars. This forecast, quite favorable for Russia, was made by the largest Swiss financial holding UBS. Meanwhile, at the moment, oil continues to fall in price, and so far this trend looks quite stable.

Will the forecast come true? Crude oil prices real time

Crude oil prices in real time will be pushed by the restoration of demand for energy in emerging markets as a whole, and in China in particular, analysts believe UBS. According to their calculations, demand for oil in China will exceed the level of 2019. At the same time, to the maximum extent will be aware of the key energy problems in 2022 due to sanctions against Russian supplies of raw materials and the chronic underfunding of oil production.

On Wednesday, January 4, oil quotes accelerated their fall to nearly 3%, with Brent futures falling below $80 a barrel. The previous trading day, the first one this year, the price of Brent dropped by 4.43% at once, to $82.1. On Thursday, January 5, the price was $79.65 per barrel.

The situation is associated with an increase in the incidence of coronavirus in China (which worsens the short-term prospects for oil demand in this country). There are also concerns about a possible recession in the global economy. Also, China’s non-manufacturing sector business activity index (PMI) fell to 41.6 points in December from 46.7 in November.

Now all forecasts on oil prices, including UBS estimates, are tentative. In this case, the Swiss holding joined a group of large international banks like Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, which voiced the same figure – $110 per barrel, in the second half of the year or in the 4th quarter. However, there is another expert point of view, according to which oil will cost about $90 on average. It is hard to say who is closer to the truth here, we have to wait at least two months until the risks associated with the sanctions are realized.

On January 19-20, the last contracts concluded between Russia and foreign buyers of its energy resources before December 5, the date of entry into force of EU sanctions (embargo on maritime deliveries and the ceiling price of $ 60 per barrel) expired. And until they are implemented, it is difficult to predict further price trajectory.

Also, the UBS forecast does not consider the factor of a likely global recession. The recession in 2023 will cover one third of the world’s economy. It means that consumption and, consequently, demand for energy carriers will decrease. In such a case, there will be neither a deficit, nor a serious (maximum up to $90 per barrel) rise in oil prices.

Earlier, we reported that oil prices slowed down after Saudi Aramco’s decision to sell prices.

Commodities

Alberta Premier Smith starts new term, vows financial relief, Trudeau pushback

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Danielle Smith swore in as the premier of Canada’s main oil-producing province on Friday, promising financial support measures, tax cuts and a pledge to push back against federal climate policies she says would harm the region’s fossil fuel industry.

Smith secured her first election victory as United Conservative Party leader last month, defeating the left-leaning New Democratic Party to return to power for another four-year term with 49 seats in Alberta’s 87-seat legislature.

The victory signaled a further rightward shift in the traditionally conservative province and put the populist premier on a collision course with Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau over climate goals.

“Today marks the start of an exciting future,” Smith said at a swearing-in ceremony in Edmonton, after unveiling her new cabinet. “Over the next four years, we will improve on the affordability measures we already have in place such as fuel tax relief and electricity and natural gas rebates.”

Smith also repeated her claim that Trudeau’s climate policies will destroy tens of thousands of jobs in the oil and gas sector, which contributes more than 20% to Alberta’s annual Gross Domestic Product.

Trudeau’s government is aiming to cut climate-warming carbon emissions 40-45% by 2030, but will struggle to meet that target without significant reductions from Alberta, Canada’s highest-polluting province.

“We will vigorously and firmly defend our province from disastrous federal policies that would devastate tens of thousands of hardworking families,” Smith said.

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VTB to sell one of Russia’s biggest grain traders, Demetra-Holding, CEO Kostin says

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VTB, Russia’s second largest bank, will sell its stake in one of Russia’s biggest grain traders, Demetra-Holding, and is in negotiations with both Russian and foreign buyers, CEO Andrei Kostin told Reuters in an interview.

Demetra has a network of grain elevators, major deep sea grain terminals and its own logistics. It owns a non controlling stake in major grain trader United Grain Company (OZK).

VTB has a 45% stake in the holding.

“We’re coming out of there. It’s decided,” Kostin told Reuters. “We have been out of control for a long time, and we will leave completely.”

He said the asset would be sold this year.

When asked if buyers had been found, he said: “Yes, and even, maybe, there will be not only Russian ones, we’ll see.”

He declined to say who the buyers were but clarified that they would be from “friendly” countries – a word Russia uses to describe countries which have not imposed sanctions on Russia.

When asked if billionaire Vadim Moshkovich was a bidder, Kostin said: “No.”

Asked if it could be the Chinese, Kostin said: “Why China? We have lots of friends, more than 100 countries did not support the anti-Russian sanctions, so we will choose one of them.”

Kostin said VTB saw few prospects for itself in the grain business, adding that a sanctioned bank in the shareholding hindered the holding.

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Commodities

Hedge Funds Pile Into Bullish Oil Wagers Amid Saudi’s Surprise Oil Cut

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Hedge funds boosted bullish bets on Brent crude to a six-week high amid Saudi Arabia’s surprise move to deepen output cuts.

Money managers raised bullish bets for a third straight week, according to exchange data released on Friday. The shift came as Saudi Arabia pledged to make an extra 1 million barrel reduction in daily output starting next month to “stabilize” the market, shorthand for halting a price slump. Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman’s warning that speculators better “watch out” already was hanging over the market. 

In the lead up to last weekend’s OPEC+ meeting, non-commercial players such as hedge funds had amassed the most bearish stance in over a decade across major oil contracts such as crude, diesel and gasoline. Despite the output cuts, oil prices have failed to rally as investors remain focused on the global economic outlook. 

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