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Gold ends week little changed, clinging to mid $1,900, despite hawkish Fed

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Gold ends week little changed, clinging to mid $1,900, despite hawkish Fed
© Reuters.

Investing.com — Gold prices ended the week little changed, rebounding from a one-week low, as markets continued their debate on whether the Federal Reserve’s final rate hike for the year would be in November or December.

“Weakening global growth prospects are (also) starting to attract some safe-haven flows towards bullion,” Ed Moya, analyst at online trading platform OANDA, said. “Gold has shown that the $1,900 level was a major line in the sand and now it appears to be poised to consolidate around the $1,950 level.”

Gold’s most-active futures contract on New York’s Comex, , settled up $6, or 0.3%, at $1945.60 an ounce. For the week, it closed virtually flat, down 0.03%.

The was at $1,925.01 by 15:10 ET (19:10 GMT). Spot gold, determined by real-time trades in physical bullion and more closely followed than futures by some traders, was up $4.90, or 0.3%, on the day. For the week, it rose 0.1%.

“For gold to move back above the $2,000 level, investors will need to see major dollar weakness, which will be driven by evidence that the labor market is breaking,” Moya said.

Markets debating when next Fed hike will be

The hit six-month highs on Friday, limiting buying of dollar-denominated commodities by holders of other currencies. Offsetting some of the dollar’s charge was a decline in U.S. bonds, measured by the , which hit its highest since 2007 before retreating.
Both yields and the dollar shot up this week after the Fed projected another quarter-percentage point by the year-end, despite leaving rates unchanged for September itself at a policy meeting on Wednesday.

“We are prepared to raise rates further, if appropriate,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told a news conference on Wednesday. “The fact that we decided to maintain the policy rate at this meeting doesn’t mean we have decided that we have or have not at this time reached that stance of monetary policy that we are seeking.”

The Fed had raised interest rates 11 times between February 2022 and July 2023, adding a total of 5.25 percentage points to a prior base rate of just 0.25%. The central bank has forecast that U.S. rates will trend around 5.1% through 2024.

The Fed has two more policy meetings left for this year — in November and December. Markets are trying to guess which month the central bank would pick for what would be its last hike for 2023.

(Ambar Warrick l

Commodities

Oil set for weekly loss on surplus fears despite OPEC+ cut extensions

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By Enes Tunagur

(Reuters) -Oil prices fell on Friday as analysts continued to forecast a supply surplus in 2025 despite the OPEC+ decision to postpone planned supply increases and extend deep output cuts to the end of 2026.

futures were down 66 cents, or 0.9%, to $71.43 per barrel at 1128 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 65 cents, or 1%, to $67.65 per barrel.

For the week, Brent was on track to fall 2%, while WTI was on course for a 0.5% drop.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies on Thursday pushed back the start of oil output rises by three months until April and extended the full unwinding of cuts by a year until the end of 2026.

The group, known as OPEC+ and responsible for about half of the world’s oil output, was planning to start unwinding cuts from October 2024, but a slowdown in global demand – especially in China – and rising output elsewhere have forced it to postpone the plan several times.

“The outcome of the latest meeting of OPEC+ members surprised us positively … The extension of the production cuts shows the group remains united and is still targeting to keep the oil market in balance,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.

Pressuring prices on Friday, analysts reiterated expectations of a supply surplus next year, although some of them now view a smaller surplus than before.

Bank of America forecasts increasing oil surpluses to drive Brent to average $65 a barrel in 2025, while expecting oil demand growth to rebound to 1 million barrels per day (bpd) next year, the bank said in a note on Friday.

HSBC, meanwhile, now expects a smaller oil market surplus of 0.2 million bpd, from 0.5 million bpd previously, it said in a note.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Crude oil tanker Otis delivers crude oil for Dangote Refinery in Lagos, Nigeria December 9, 2023. REUTERS/Seun Sanni/File Photo

Brent has largely stayed in a tight range of $70-75 per barrel in the past month, as investors weighed weak demand signals in China and heightened geopolitical risk in the Middle East.

“The general narrative is that the market is stuck in its rather narrow range. While immediate developments might push it out of this range on the upside briefly, the medium-term view remains rather pessimistic,” PVM analyst Tamas Varga said.

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Commodities

Oil pares some gains after source says OPEC+ to delay output hike

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By Paul Carsten

LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices pared some gains on Thursday after a source told Reuters OPEC+ has agreed to delay a planned oil output hike until April 2025.

was up 24 cents, or 0.3%, to $72.55 a barrel at 1237 GMT. It had been at $72.84 before Reuters reported the delay.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 25 cents, 0.4%, and was trading at $68.79 a barrel.

The planned delay comes as OPEC+, made up the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus allies including Russia, tries to support prices as it wrestles with weak demand, notably from China, and rising supply outside the producer group.

“It will not make next year’s oil balance tight and supply surplus is still anticipated,” said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM. “This view was mirrored in the gut price reaction.”

There remains the question of how long the delays could last, with this only the latest in a series. OPEC+ was originally due to begin raising output in October as part of a plan to gradually unwind the group’s most recent layer of output curbs of 2.2 million barrels per day.

“They reiterate that these barrels will indeed come back,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB. “It’s a limited time frame. This means there is no upside to the oil price in the next couple of years.”

Elsewhere, a larger-than-expected draw in stockpiles last week also provided some support to prices.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: An oil pump is seen operating in the Permian Basin near Midland, Texas, U.S. on May 3, 2017. Picture taken May 3, 2017. REUTERS/Ernest Scheyder/File Photo

In the Middle East, Israel said on Tuesday it would return to war with Hezbollah if their truce collapses and its attacks would go deeper into Lebanon and target the state itself.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy has travelled to Qatar and Israel to kick-start the U.S. President-elect’s diplomatic push to help reach a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal before he takes office on Jan. 20, a source briefed on the talks told Reuters.

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OPEC+ likely to extend oil output cuts to support market- report

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On Thursday, OPEC+ is expected to postpone its planned increase in oil production, which was initially scheduled to commence in January, Reuters reported.

The decision to maintain current output levels aims to provide additional support for the oil market. The group, responsible for about half of the world’s oil supply, had intended to start easing output restrictions through 2025 but is now reconsidering in light of a global demand slowdown and increased production from non-member countries.

The consortium’s plan to unwind output cuts has faced challenges due to these market conditions, which have also exerted downward pressure on oil prices.

Accordingly, an extension of the current output cuts for an additional three months is the most probable outcome of the online meeting. However, there are indications that an even longer extension could be under consideration.

The deliberations within OPEC+ reflect the group’s ongoing efforts to balance oil supply with fluctuating global demand. The decision to delay the increase in output is seen as a measure to stabilize the market, which has been affected by various economic factors.

Market participants are closely monitoring the developments from OPEC+’s meeting, as the group’s decisions have significant implications for global oil supply and pricing. The final outcome of the meeting, including the length of the extension, will be determined by the consensus of the member countries.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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