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Oil prices surge, Brent near $92 as Israel-Hamas tensions worsen

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Oil prices surge, Brent near $92 as Israel-Hamas tensions worsen
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Investing.com– Oil prices rose sharply in Asian trade on Wednesday after a deadly blast at a Gaza hospital appeared to have stymied a U.S. diplomatic effort in the Israel-Hamas war, while industry data showed that U.S. inventories shrank more than expected last week. 

The White House said U.S. President Joe Biden will not visit Jordan as part of his Israel trip, after Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said that a planned summit between U.S., Egyptian and Palestinian leaders will not take place. The trip was seen as an attempt to maintain support for Israel while also placating Arab states and preventing a bigger escalation in the conflict.

The move came just a few hours after an explosion at a crowded hospital in Gaza City reportedly killed hundreds of Palestinians, which was blamed on both Israeli and Hamas forces. The blast drew ire from the international community, and dampened hopes for a swift deescalation in tensions in the Middle East.

This in turn fueled renewed concerns that a spillover of the Israel-Hamas conflict could disrupt crude supplies in the oil-rich Middle East region- a notion that had boosted oil prices through the past week. 

The news helped oil prices reverse most losses seen earlier this week, with Brent futures now sitting comfortably above the key $90 a barrel level. 

jumped 2.3% to $91.97 a barrel, while surged 2.6% to $87.63 a barrel by 22:20 ET (02:20 GMT). 

Fears of an escalation in the Israel-Hamas war, particularly that other Middle Eastern countries could join the fray, had boosted oil prices over the past week, helping them shrug off headwinds from a stronger dollar and fears of higher interest rates. 

Stronger-than-expected third-quarter data from world no.1 oil importer China also offered some support to oil markets on Wednesday, as a string of monetary stimulus measures from Beijing appeared to be bearing fruit.

Markets largely looked past reports that the U.S. was close to lifting sanctions on Venezuela, given that any supply unlocked from such a move appeared unlikely to help soothe tight global crude markets. 

US stockpiles seen shrinking more than expected- API 

In another sign of tight supplies, data from the showed on late-Tuesday that U.S. inventories shrank 4.4 million barrels in the week to October 13, more than expectations for a draw of 1.3 million barrels.

The draw comes after a bumper build in the prior week, which also saw U.S. production reach new peaks. But the API data indicated that U.S. exports had picked up again, while gasoline and distillates consumption remained steady.

Robust and data also pointed to strength in the U.S. economy, likely indicating that fuel demand will remain strong amid tightening supplies. Focus is now on , due later on Wednesday.

Expectations of tighter global oil supplies, following deep production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia, underpinned oil prices earlier this year, and are also expected to keep crude supported in the coming months, despite increasing economic headwinds.

More cues on the U.S. economy are due this week, most notably an address by on Thursday.

Commodities

OPEC output cut extension positive for oil prices near-term, UBS says

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Investing.com — The decision by OPEC+ to extend its production cuts through December is seen by UBS analysts as a modest but positive step for oil prices in the short term. 

This extension maintains a cut of 2.2 million barrels per day (Mb/d), an agreement initially struck last year. 

UBS noted that while this action aligns with their expectations, market speculations about a potential production increase had raised concerns prior to the announcement, making the continuity of cuts a reassuring factor for price stability​.

UBS outlines that OPEC+ remains cautious about reintroducing additional barrels into the market, particularly as demand typically softens seasonally at this time of year. 

A sudden increase in production from Libya had already somewhat alleviated supply constraints, further justifying the extended restraint by OPEC+. 

This approach reflects a prudent stance from OPEC+ amid mixed compliance on compensation requirements from members like Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia who had exceeded previous production targets.

Looking beyond December, UBS anticipates that apprehensions regarding potential output increases will persist, with the group scheduled to review policy in early December. 

A more substantial production ramp-up is currently slated for 2025, at which point OPEC+ will likely reassess market conditions and U.S. policy implications, though UBS maintains that sluggish demand growth and stable output from non-OPEC sources could still discourage any major increases. 

“We see the market just about balanced next year with no unwind of the production cuts, which keeps at an average $75/bbl in 2025 in our base case,” the analysts said.

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Commodities

Oil prices soar after OPEC+ delays production hike

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Investing.com– Oil prices rose sharply Monday after a group of top producers said they will delay a planned output hike in December by at least a month, citing recent pressure on prices from weak demand. 

At 04:45 ET (09:45 GMT), rose 2.6% to $75.03 a barrel, while rose 2.9% to $71.47 a barrel. 

OPEC+ delays production hike 

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, a group known as OPEC+, announced on Sunday that its members will delay a planned output hike of 180,000 barrels per day by at least a month.

The cartel had previously outlined plans to begin winding down its most recent 2.2 million bpd output curbs from December.

But plans to increase production raised concerns in the group about weaker oil prices, especially as prices slid to a near three-year low in September. The OPEC+ had slashed production by nearly 6 million bpd in the past two years to support prices. 

Weakness in China was the biggest point of concern for oil markets, as the world’s biggest oil importer grappled with a prolonged downturn in economic growth. Oil imports to the country also weakened sharply in recent months.

“With continued uncertainty around 2025’s demand outlook, the pause decision is consistent with the leadership’s June pledge to remain prudent about production decisions and to avoid sudden shocks,” said analysts at RBC Capital Markets, in a note. “Concerns that OPEC was poised to oversupply a fragile market have been weighing significantly on sentiment.”

US elections, China stimulus in focus 

Oil prices were also aided by a softer , as the greenback retreated in anticipation of the U.S. presidential election this week. Recent polls showed Donald Trump and Kamala Harris were set for a tight race.

Both candidates have promised to increase domestic oil production, which is already at record highs of over 13 million bpd.

Focus this week is also on a meeting of China’s National People’s Congress this week, where policymakers are widely expected to approve more fiscal spending to boost economic growth.

Recent reports said the government could approve as much as $1.4 trillion in stimulus over the coming years to support growth.

Middle East tensions remain 

Both crude benchmarks posted hefty weekly declines last week, but edged up on Friday on reports that Iran could launch a retaliatory strike on Israel within days.

On Thursday, U.S. news website Axios said Israeli intelligence suggested that Iran was preparing to attack Israel from Iraq within days, citing two unidentified Israeli sources.

“Though the market sold off sharply after Israel avoided targeting Iranian nuclear and energy infrastructure, the threat of Iranian retaliation remains a clear and present danger,” RBC added. “Certainly, a continuing cycle of retaliatory strikes between Israel and Iran raises the risk that oil facilities will be caught in the crosshairs.”

(Ambar Warrick contributed to this article.)

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Gold prices rise with elections, Fed meeting in focus

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Investing.com– Gold prices rose in Asian trade on Monday, remaining in sight of record highs as anticipation of a tight presidential election and an upcoming Federal Reserve meeting kept haven demand high.

The yellow metal was also buoyed by weakness in the dollar after substantially softer-than-expected nonfarm payrolls data last week, which furthered the case for more interest rate cuts by the Fed. 

Still, the yellow metal was nursing a tumble from recent record highs, hit mostly by profit-taking at the end of October. 

rose 0.2% to $2,741.31 an ounce, while expiring in December steadied at $2,750.40 an ounce by 23:56 ET (04:56 GMT). 

Trump, Harris neck-and-neck as ballots loom

Recent polls showed Donald Trump and Kamala Harris were largely neck-and-neck in the upcoming election, with voting set for this Tuesday.

Particular focus is on the seven battleground states that are likely to decide the direction of the election. Recent polls showed Harris had a strong base in female supporters, while Trump was mostly favored by young white men.

Gold buoyed by dollar weakness ahead of Fed meeting

In addition to pre-election haven demand, gold also took support from recent declines in the , as the greenback tumbled from three-month highs after data released last week.

The reading showed the U.S. job market barely grew in October, with downward revisions for the past two months pointing to a cooling in the labor sector.

Such a trend is expected to give the Fed more impetus to cut interest rates. The central bank is widely expected to later this week, although its plans for future rate cuts remain uncertain.

Gold benefits from lower rates, given that they reduce the opportunity cost of investing in non-yielding assets. 

Among other precious metals, rose 0.4% to $1,006.75 an ounce, while rose 0.3% to $32.773 an ounce. Both metals, like gold, were hit with a sharp bout of profit-taking last week.

Among industrial metals, benchmark on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.9% to $9,637.50 an ounce, while December rose 0.7% to $4.4032.

Focus this week was squarely on a meeting of China’s National People’s Congress, where the government is widely expected to outline plans for more fiscal spending.

The country is the world’s biggest copper importer and is grappling with years of weak economic growth.

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