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Commodities

Oil slips as investors digest US election fallout

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By Alex Lawler

LONDON (Reuters) – Oil slipped on Thursday, extending a sell-off triggered by the U.S. presidential election, as a strong dollar and lower crude imports in China outweighed supply risks from a Trump presidency and output cuts caused by Hurricane Rafael.

Donald Trump’s election win initially triggered a sell-off that pushed oil down more than $2 as the dollar rallied. But crude prices later pared losses to settle at a less than 1% decline by the end of Wednesday’s session.

futures fell 63 cents, or 0.8%, to $74.29 a barrel by 1253 GMT on Thursday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude lost 73 cents, or 1%, to $70.96.

Downside factors include a strong dollar and sluggish demand, while upside pressures come from potentially increased sanctions on Iran and Venezuela under Trump, as well as conflict in the Middle East, said Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen.

“Some of these potential drivers will have no impact in the foreseeable future, but they all add up to the current narrative leading to rangebound trading,” he said.

“Absent any major geopolitical escalation, the short-term outlook leans toward downside risk in my opinion.”

The dollar held near four-month highs on Thursday as investors prepared for several central bank decisions, including from the U.S. Federal Reserve. A strong dollar makes oil more expensive for other currency holders and tends to weigh on prices.

“Historically, Trump’s policies have been pro-business, which likely supports overall economic growth and increases demand for fuel,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova. “However, any interference in the Fed’s easing policies could lead to further challenges for the oil market.”

Further downward pressure came from data showing that crude oil imports in China fell 9% in October – the sixth consecutive month showing a year-on-year decline – as well as from a rise in inventories.

Trump is expected to reimpose his “maximum pressure policy” of sanctions on Iranian oil exports. That could cut supply by as much as 1 million barrels per day (bpd), according to Energy Aspects estimates.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A pump jack operates in an oil field in Midland, Texas U.S. August 22, 2018. Picture taken August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo

In his first term, Trump also put in place harsher sanctions on Venezuelan oil. Those measures were briefly rolled back by the Biden administration but later reinstated.

Actual, rather than feared, supply cuts also lent support. In the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, about 17% of crude output or 304,418 bpd has been shut because of Hurricane Rafael, the U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said.

Commodities

US deepens sanctions on Iran’s ‘shadow’ oil fleet

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By Doina Chiacu, Susan Heavey and Florence Tan

WASHINGTON/SINGAPORE (Reuters) -The Biden administration on Tuesday ramped up sanctions on Iran, targeting 35 entities and vessels it said carried illicit Iranian petroleum to foreign markets as part of what the U.S. Treasury Department called Tehran’s “shadow fleet.”

The sanctions build on those imposed on Oct. 11 and come in response to Iran’s Oct. 1 attack on Israel and to its announced nuclear escalations, the Treasury Department said in a statement.

“Iran continues to funnel revenues from its petroleum trade toward the development of its nuclear program, proliferation of its ballistic missile and unmanned aerial vehicle technology, and sponsorship of its regional terrorist proxies, risking further destabilizing the region,” Acting Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Bradley Smith said.

“The United States remains committed to disrupting the shadow fleet of vessels and operators that facilitate these illicit activities, using the full range of our tools and authorities.”

Such sanctions target key sectors of Iran’s economy with the aim of denying the government funds for its nuclear and missile programs. The move generally prohibits any U.S. individuals or entities from doing any business with the targets and freezes any U.S.-held assets.

Eight of the 21 sanctioned ships are loaded with oil, while another was on its way to a Russian port to lift a cargo, shipping data on LSEG Workspace showed.

Suezmax-sized tanker Min Hang loaded Russian Urals crude at Ust-Luga port on Nov. 17 and is heading to Port Said in Egypt while Vesna, an Aframax-sized tanker, is heading to the Pacific port of Kozmino to load Russian ESPO Blend crude on Dec. 8, the data showed.

The Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) Phonix was due to discharge its cargo at the port of Rizhao in China’s eastern province of Shandong while medium-range tanker Rio Napo was set to offload its naphtha cargo at Sohar port on Dec. 4.

Off Malaysia, fully-laden VLCC Elva is anchored along with VLCCs FT Island and Yuri which appear to be empty.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Iran's and U.S.' flags are seen printed on paper in this illustration taken January 27, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

VLCC Bertha is moving away from western Africa after loading Nigerian Egina crude.

Two other tankers – Lady Lucy and Merope – are loaded with fuel oil while tanker Tonil is carrying naphtha.

 

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Commodities

Gold prices steady as S.Korea turmoil spurs some haven demand; Powell awaited

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Investing.com– Gold prices rose marginally in Asian trade on Wednesday as political turmoil in South Korea spurred some safe haven demand, although anticipation of more cues on U.S. interest rates kept traders to the sidelines.

The yellow metal saw some relief this week as fears of a collapse in the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire also spurred haven demand. But any gains in gold were largely limited by a spike in the dollar, as the greenback soared on uncertainty over the long term outlook for U.S. rates.

rose 0.1% to $2,646.53 an ounce, while expiring in February rose 0.1% to $2,668.60 an ounce by 23:25 ET (04:25 GMT). 

S.Korea in focus after failed martial law declaration

South Korea President Yoon Suk-Yeol declared martial law on Tuesday, although he swiftly rescinded the move after it was heavily opposed by the Parliament and citizens. 

The Parliament entirely voted against martial law, while South Korea’s opposition party also called for Yoon’s impeachment, putting the country into its worst political crisis since the 1980s. 

Political uncertainty in the country undermined investor sentiment across Asia, given that South Korea is regarded as a pillar for the East Asian economy. This spurred some safe haven demand for gold.

Increased tensions between Israel and Lebanon also spurred some safe haven buying, after Israel threatened to hold Lebanon’s government accountable for a collapse in its ceasefire with Hezbollah. Both Israel and the militant group launched strikes against each other over the past week, violating a U.S.-brokered truce.

Metal markets pressured by dollar strength before Powell speech 

Broader metal prices were muted on Wednesday as traders awaited an address by for more cues on interest rates. 

Powell is set to speak later in the day, with his address coming just weeks before the Fed’s final meeting for the year.

While the central bank is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in December, the long term outlook for rates has grown more uncertain in the face of sticky inflation and inflationary policies under Trump.

This uncertainty sparked sharp gains in the , pressuring metal prices across the board.

Other precious metals, including and , moved little on Wednesday. Among industrial metals, benchmark on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.3% to $9,096.0 a ton, while February fell 0.2% to $4.1895 a pound. 

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Commodities

Oil prices steady ahead of imminent OPEC+ decision; geopolitical turmoil in focus

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By Arunima Kumar

(Reuters) -Oil prices were little changed on Wednesday, with traders expecting OPEC+ to announce an extension to supply cuts this week while heightened geopolitical tensions continue to dominate market sentiment.

futures were up 5 cents, or 0.07%, at $73.67 a barrel by 1214 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 4 cents, or 0.06%, to $69.90.

On Tuesday, Brent posted its biggest gain in two weeks, rising by 2.5%.

A shaky ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, South Korea’s curtailed declaration of martial law and a rebel offensive in Syria that threatens to draw in forces from several oil-producing countries all lent support to oil prices, said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova.

In the Middle East, Israel said on Tuesday that it would return to war with Hezbollah if their truce collapses and that its attacks would go deeper into Lebanon and target the state itself.

In South Korea, meanwhile, lawmakers have submitted a bill to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol after his declaration of martial law on Tuesday, which was reversed within hours, sparking a political crisis in Asia’s fourth-largest economy.

However, the bullish momentum hasn’t pushed crude past the $75 resistance, indicating market sensitivity to geopolitical and economic developments may be waning, said Dilin Wu, research strategist at Pepperstone.

“With OPEC+ widely expected to extend its 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary production cut into the first quarter of 2025, prices are likely to stay range-bound unless a new catalyst emerges,” Wu said.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, together known as OPEC+, are likely extend output cuts until the end of the first quarter next year when members meet on Thursday, industry sources told Reuters.

OPEC+ has been looking to phase out supply cuts through next year.

“Neither geopolitics and OPEC+ action nor sanguine financial data will alter the underlying fundamental outlook. Protracted attempts to push oil towards $80 a barrel will be reined in by supply checks and loose oil balances,” said PVM oil analyst Tamas Varga.

U.S., crude oil inventories rose 1.2 million barrels last week, market sources said, citing data from the American Petroleum Institute. [API/S]

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The sun sets behind a crude oil pump jack on a drill pad in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, U.S. November 24, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo

Gasoline stocks also rose, by 4.6 million barrels, even though the week included Thanksgiving, when demand typically rises.

Official data on oil stocks from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is due on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. ET (1530 GMT). Analysts polled by Reuters expect crude stocks to decline by 700,000 barrels and gasoline stocks to rise by 639,000 barrels.

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