© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Oil rigs are seen at Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas drilling, in the Patagonian province of Neuquen, Argentina January 21, 2019. REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian/File Photo
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK (Reuters) -Oil prices fell about 2% on Monday to a three-week low as a higher-priced contract expired, the U.S. dollar strengthened and traders took profits, concerned about rising crude supplies and pressure on demand from high interest rates.
On its first day as the front-month, Brent futures for December delivery settled $1.49, or 1.6%, lower at $90.71 a barrel, or down about 5% from where the November contract expired on Friday. That was the Brent front-month’s biggest daily percentage decline since early May.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) , meanwhile, fell $1.97, or 2.2%, to settle at $88.82 per barrel.
Analysts said some traders took profits after crude prices rose nearly 30% to 10-month highs in the third quarter.
Before the crude price pullback that started on Sept. 28, U.S. speculators boosted their net long futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges to the highest since May 2022, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
It is “highly likely that profit-taking by speculators is currently playing a role (in the recent price decline) and should cease weighing on markets as the days pass,” analysts at energy consulting firm Gelber and Associates said in a note.
On Monday, the U.S. dollar rose to a 10-month high against a basket of other currencies after the U.S. government avoided a partial shutdown and economic data fuelled expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep rates higher longer, which could slow economic growth.
Higher interest rates along with a stronger dollar, which makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, could dent oil demand.
“The global outlook is quickly taking a turn for the worse and that is both driving the king dollar trade again and weighing on the crude demand outlook,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at data and analytics firm OANDA, noting that soaring bond yields were also pressuring crude prices.
In Europe, manufacturing data showed the euro zone, Germany and Britain remained mired in a downturn in September.
In China, the world’s biggest oil importer, the World Bank maintained its forecast for 2023 economic growth at 5.1%, but trimmed its prediction for 2024, citing persistent weakness of its property sector.
MORE OIL COMING
Pumping more crude supply into the system, Turkey’s energy minister said the country will restart operations this week on a pipeline from Iraq that has been suspended for about six months.
Additionally, Saudi Arabia could start to ease its additional voluntary supply cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd), ING analysts said in a note.
OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) plus Russia and other allies, will meet on Wednesday but is unlikely to tweak its current oil output policy.
A Reuters survey showed OPEC oil output rose for a second straight month in September despite cuts by Saudi Arabia.
Oil prices steady on OPEC+ cut uncertainty and Middle East tension
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: An aerial view shows tugboats helping a crude oil tanker to berth at an oil terminal, off Waidiao Island in Zhoushan, Zhejiang province, China July 18, 2022. cnsphoto via REUTERS/File Photo
By Natalie Grover
London (Reuters) -Oil prices were little changed on Tuesday against a backdrop of uncertainty over voluntary output cuts by the OPEC+ group of producers, tensions in the Middle East and some encouraging economic signals in Europe.
futures edged down by 25 cents, or 0.3%, to $77.78 a barrel by 1301 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures lost 21 cents, or 0.3%, to $72.83.
Comments by Saudi Arabia’s energy minister that OPEC+ production cuts could continue past the first quarter of 2024 lent some price support, said OANDA analyst Kelvin Wong.
Oil prices had declined on Monday on doubts that OPEC+ supply cuts would have a significant impact, said CMC Markets (LON:) analyst Tina Teng.
On Tuesday, however, the Kremlin said that the cuts agreed by the OPEC+ group will take time to kick in.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, together known as OPEC+, agreed on Thursday to voluntary output cuts of about 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) for the first quarter of 2024.
At least 1.3 million bpd of those cuts, however, were an extension of voluntary curbs that Saudi Arabia and Russia already had in place.
The additional cuts were below the 1 million bpd reduction that was already baked into market expectations in the run-up to the OPEC+ meeting, FGE analysts wrote in a note, adding that in practice they expect the overall OPEC+ cut to be closer to 500,000 bpd more than the reductions to fourth-quarter output.
Meanwhile, the resumption of fighting in the Israel-Hamas war has stoked supply concerns, as did attacks on three commercial vessels in international waters in the southern Red Sea.
There was a bright spot on the demand side, with European Central Bank board member Isabel Schnabel telling Reuters the bank can take further interest rate hikes off the table after a “remarkable” fall in inflation.
In the United States, however, data on Tuesday showed factory orders fell by more than analysts had expected in October and the most in more than three years, raising concerns about the health of U.S. demand.
That bolstered the view that increases to interest rates are beginning to limit spending, analysts said.
Oil falls on demand fears and doubts over OPEC+ cuts
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: An aerial view shows a crude oil tanker at an oil terminal off Waidiao island in Zhoushan, Zhejiang province, China January 4, 2023. China Daily via REUTERS
By Alex Lawler
LONDON (Reuters) – Oil prices extended declines on Monday, pressured by investor scepticism over the latest OPEC+ decision on supply cuts and uncertainty surrounding global fuel demand, though the risk of supply disruptions from the Middle East conflict limited losses.
Monday’s fall adds to a 2% decline last week after the supply cuts announced on Thursday by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, together known as OPEC+.
futures were down 45 cents, or 0.6%, at $78.43 a barrel by 1243 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 43 cents, or 0.6%, to $73.64.
“Crude seems to be under continued pressure from the OPEC+ decision,” said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda (NASDAQ:) Insights.
The OPEC+ cuts were voluntary in nature, raising doubts about whether or not producers would fully implement them. Investors were also unsure about how the cuts would be measured.
“The OPEC+ ‘deal’ last week was unconvincing to say the least,” said Craig Erlam, analyst at brokerage OANDA. “And with markets seemingly anticipating more of an economic slowdown next year, the announcement simply doesn’t go far enough.”
Surveys on Friday showed global manufacturing activity remained weak in November on soft demand, with euro zone factory activity contracting, while there were mixed signs on the strength of China’s economy.
Geopolitical considerations were back in focus as fighting resumed in Gaza, lending some support to prices. Three commercial vessels came under attack in international waters in the southern Red Sea, the U.S. military said on Sunday.
Elsewhere, Western countries have stepped up efforts to enforce the $60 a barrel price cap on seaborne shipments of Russian oil imposed to punish Moscow for its war in Ukraine.
Washington on Friday imposed additional sanctions on three entities and three oil tankers.
Gold prices hit record high on bets of early Fed rate cuts
Investing.com — Gold prices touched an all-time high on Monday, but later pared back some of these gains, as traders bet on the potential for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next year.
By 07:26 ET (12:26 GMT), was mostly unchanged at $2,071.29 a troy ounce, retreating slightly from an earlier rally that had lifted the typical safe haven asset to a record $2,135 per troy ounce. Gold posted strong gains last week, and also rose for a second consecutive month in November.
The yellow metal has appreciated sharply in recent sessions as easing inflation, soft labor market data, and less-hawkish signals from the Fed bolstered speculation that the bank will bring down borrowing costs from a more than two-decade peak in 2024.
Near-term demand for gold was also fueled by an attack on an American warship and commercial vessels in the Red Sea, which ramped up concerns over an escalation in the violence in the Middle East.
Speaking on Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated his stance that U.S. rates will remain higher for longer. But some changes in his language — particularly an acknowledgement of progress made towards curbing inflation and the potential for a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy — reinforced expectations that the Fed will no longer hike rates in December and possibly begin cutting them by March 2024.
More economic cues on tap this week
shows an almost 97% chance that the Fed will keep rates on hold at a range of 5.25% to 5.50% when policymakers meet later this month. Meanwhile, there is a more than 50% probability that the central bank will trim rates by 25 basis points as soon as March of next year, up from around 21% one week ago.
The prospect of falling borrowing costs bodes well for gold, given that elevated rates push up the opportunity cost of investing in non-interest bearing assets like the metal. This notion had battered bullion prices over the past year.
But markets still have a slew of economic figures to assess. data for November — a key gauge of the labor market — is due later this week, while inflation readings for the remainder of the year are also slated for release in the coming weeks.
Some facets of the labor market remain strong, while inflation is still comfortably above the Fed’s 2% target — a trend that, if persistent, may diminish the chances of an early rate cut.
Ambar Warrick contributed to this report.
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