Macroeconomic uncertainty gripped markets after US President Donald Trump threatened Iran’s supreme leader, which caused Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to drop in response.

Despite this, BTC may be on track for significant gains in 2025 if it follows its long-established yearly performance pattern, according to new analysis of long-term price cycles.

BTC on Track for 120% Gain in 2025?

Data shows that since 2011, Bitcoin has followed a recurring four-year rhythm – three years of upward growth followed by one year of consolidation – mirroring the cryptocurrency’s halving cycle. With 2023 and 2024 already closing as positive years, 2025 would represent the third and typically strongest year in the cycle.

If this historical trend continues, BTC’s price could rise by roughly 120% by the end of 2025, according to the latest analysis by CryptoQuant. Starting from a base of $93,226, that would take the leading cryptocurrency to around $205,097, which could potentially mark the cycle’s peak.

The analysis stated that Bitcoin is now in the final bullish phase of its current cycle, which may have important implications for investor strategy and timing.

The latest prediction stands in contrast to the often short-term focus of on-chain metrics like MVRV ratios, UTXO bands, and SOPR readings, which, while valuable, can miss the broader structural forces shaping price action, CryptoQuant’s analysis explained.

Meanwhile, the long-term view is further supported by Realized Cap data, which continues to print new all-time highs this year, indicating steady market strength.

“Bitcoin adheres to a structural rhythm that repeats with striking consistency: three years of expansion followed by one of compression. This long-term lens helps investors stay grounded during short-term volatility and align better with Bitcoin’s historical performance.”

Strong Institutional Interest in Bitcoin

This long-term optimism is mirrored in institutional behavior, with continued capital inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs despite the broader market pullback. Data from SoSoValue revealed that these funds recorded $216 million in net inflows on June 17th, which marked seven straight days of inflows.

Interestingly, more than $1.46 billion was added over the last five trading sessions.

Bitcoin (BTC) has been consolidating over the past few days following a significant correction triggered by geopolitical tensions last week. As the consolidation continues, analysts at the crypto exchange Bitfinex have found reasons to believe that the digital asset may have hit its bottom for this correction.

According to the latest Bitfinex Alpha report, market behavior, historical data, and certain metrics, such as Bitcoin Net Taker Volume, suggest that the correction may not extend further than it already has.

BTC Reacts to Geopolitical Tensions

Last week, BTC started with a strong rebound and recovery from earlier lows. The asset reclaimed key support levels around its previous all-time high (ATH) of $109,900, marking a 4.7% gain from the weekly open. This was supported by a temporary pause in profit-taking activity and improving market sentiment.

However, things took a turn for the worse after tensions in the Middle East increased and Israel attacked Iran. BTC experienced a 7.33% peak-to-trough decline, losing much of its early-week gains amid heightened uncertainty in the markets. The cryptocurrency ended the week at 0.09% despite earlier gains.

“The swift reversal highlights the marketʼs fragility in the face of exogenous shocks, and underscores how quickly sentiment can shift even during strong trend conditions. Heading into this week, all eyes are on the macro newsflow and whether BTC can maintain support above the $103-105K region,” Bitfinex stated.

Is The Bottom In?

While global markets continue to react to the effects of ongoing geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin is experiencing a spike in selling activity. This is evident in the Net Taker Volume, a metric that measures the balance between market buys and sells. The indicator has dropped to -$197 million, its most negative level since June 6, which suggests that traders are offloading BTC at market prices rather than waiting with passive bids.

Such low readings in Net Taker Volume, especially below -$160 million, have coincided with local BTC bottoms. This is because panic selling exhausts weaker market participants, allowing larger players to accumulate the asset.

One more reason for believing that BTC has hit its bottom for this decline is that the magnitude of this plunge closely aligns with the cycle median drawdown of roughly 7%, which is neither extreme nor anomalous. Analysts say this reflects a healthy consolidation phase during an ongoing uptrend rather than the onset of a deeper structural correction and that BTC is likely to recover soon.

The volatile bitcoin price moves continued in the past 24 hours due to the quickly developing situation in the Middle East, but the asset seemed to have calmed at around $105,000.

However, more fluctuations are expected today as the US Federal Reserve concludes its fourth FOMC meeting of the year, although most anticipate no changes in interest rates.

BTC Back to $105K

Israel’s rather surprising attack against Iran last Friday morning caused an immediate turmoil in the cryptocurrency market, as bitcoin slumped from $108,400 to under $103,000 within hours. Although both sides continued to exchange missile blows for the next several days, BTC started to recover some ground over the weekend and even went on the offensive at the start of the current business week.

The culmination transpired on Monday evening and Tuesday morning when the bulls drove the primary cryptocurrency to a multi-day peak of roughly $109,000.

However, the asset faced immediate rejection at that point and was pushed south hard once again. After the latest developments on the Middle East front, which include Trump’s threats against Iran, bitcoin plunged beneath $103,500 yesterday.

It has bounced off since then and even tapped $105,600, but that was short-lived, and the asset is back to just under $105,000 now. As mentioned above, volatility is expected to pick up later today as the US Fed will announce its interest rate decision.

For now, BTC’s market cap has dropped below $2.090 trillion on CG, while its dominance over the alts is close to 62%.

Alts in Red

Most altcoins have registered further losses over the past day. Ethereum is close to breaking below $2,500 after another minor decline, while XRP has dumped to $2.15 following a 3% drop. SOL, HYPE, ADA, LINK, UNI, and PEPE have marked similar losses, while SUI has plunged by over 6%.

The top performers from the largest 100 alts include KAIA (5%), SEI (2%), and NEXO (2%). In contrast, SKY, FARTCOIN, TKX, and VIRTUAL have lost the most value.

The total crypto market cap has declined by another $60 billion in a day and is down to $3.380 trillion on CG.