Two of America’s largest banks are urging crypto investors to remain cautious around the upcoming Bitcoin halving, which analysts believe may not play out much like prior cycles.

In a Wednesday report, JPMorgan predicted that Bitcoin’s price will not rise following the event, and is more likely to resume declines that began earlier this month.

Could The Halving Be Bearish For Bitcoin?

The bank’s outlook remains consistent with its relatively bearish forecasts throughout the year, refusing to be swayed by growing optimism around Bitcoin spot ETFs or the halving.

“We do not expect bitcoin price increases post-halving as it has already been priced in,” wrote analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou. “In fact, we see a downside for the bitcoin price post-halving for several reasons.”

The analyst used the price of gold as a reference point, as both assets share a similar investment thesis as a risk-off store of value and inflation hedge. On a volatility-adjusted basis, the bank argued that Bitcoin’s price should only be $45,000, meaning its current market price ($63,700) is significantly overbought.

Backing their case is a continuing long bias in Bitcoin futures open interest, and a lack of venture funding in the crypto industry this year.

“The technical picture for bitcoin is rather worrying, as we saw no rebound after the price drop on Friday and Saturday,” added Alex Kuptsikevich, FxPro’s senior market analyst, in an email to Forbes. “On the contrary, the market seems to be getting used to current prices in anticipation of a halving.”

Goldman’s Bitcoin Outlook

In a note to clients last week, Goldman Sachs acknowledged that Bitcoin’s past three halving cycles have resulted in massive price run-ups in the aftermath – though the exact time it took to reach a new al time high afterward has differed greatly.

This cycle looks even more different: Bitcoin already topped its previous cycle’s all-time high above $69,000 in March, one month before the halving even occurred.

“Caution should be taken against extrapolating the past cycles and the impact of halving, given the respective prevailing macro conditions,” analysts said.

The halving itself is due later this week, expected on April 20 at 01:44 UTC. Whether or not it results in a “buy the rumor, sell the news” event in the short term, Goldman thinks BTC’s immediate price action is hardly relevant.

“Bitcoin price performance will likely continue to be driven by the said supply-demand dynamic and continued demand for bitcoin ETFs, which combined with the self-reflexive nature of crypto markets is the primary determinant for spot price action,” the bank said.

Worldcoin, the project co-founded by Open AI CEO Sam Altman, which uses iris-scanning technology to verify a user’s “humanness,” is planning to launch an Ethereum layer-2 blockchain prioritizing verified humans over bots.

Worldcoin currently has more than 10 million users, with 50% of them having verified their human identities using the project’s Orb.

An Anti-Bot Blockchain Network

In a blog announcement on April 17, Worldcoin introduced its new human-centered blockchain called World Chain, which will be built on Optimism’s Superchain.

Worldcoin is the largest protocol on Optimism, an Ethereum Layer-2 scaling solution, accounting for 44% of user transactions on the network, and sometimes over 80% during peak periods.

According to the announcement, the continuous growth of the Worldcoin community caused developers to build an independent chain.

“Migrating to a dedicated network will already yield meaningful gains. After this, World Chain will be on the forefront of scaling and decentralizing the Layer 2 paradigm on Ethereum with the Superchain ecosystem.”

The Worldcoin Foundation aims to prioritize human transactions on the World Chain network, in a sector that is mainly controlled by bots. Automated transactions which account for more than half of user activity on major blockchains often cause network congestion and high gas fees that affect human users.

But with World Chain, Worldcoin seeks to solve this issue by focusing on users who verify their identity using the World ID, which will enable them to get a free gas allowance and “faster confirmation times” over bots.

While gas fees will, in the meantime, be handled by the Worldcoin Foundation, the ultimate goal is to “reach an equilibrium where gas for casual users is ultimately covered by fees from bots and power users.”

Also, Ether (ETH) will serve as the native token for World Chain, but verified users will be able to use Worldcoin (WLD) tokens when they claim their token grants to pay for fees.

The World Chain launch is slated for this summer, while a developer preview is expected to happen soon, according to the announcement.

Worldcoin’s Regulatory Issues

Worldcoin, however, continues to face regulatory hurdles in different countries, with the issue of possible privacy violations causing concern for data protection regulators.

In March, authorities in Portugal and Spain instructed Worldcoin to halt its biometric data collection for 90 days, while Hong Kong began an investigation into the project in January.

Amid the setbacks, Worldcoin has recorded over 10 million users on the World App – the World ID-compatible crypto wallet app designed by Tools for Humanity (TFH) – in 160 countries, with more than five million having verified World IDs. The wallet app also boasts over 70 million transactions.

TL;DR

• Cardano’s ADA has significantly declined, currently priced around $0.45, reflecting a broader market downturn.
• However, analysts remain optimistic, with forecasts suggesting a rebound to $1 in the near term and possibly reaching higher milestones like $1.70 or even $10 under favorable conditions.

ADA Ready for a Bull Run?

Cardano’s ADA has underperformed in the past few weeks, coinciding with the broader crypto market retreat. Its price currently hovers around $0.45 (per CoinGecko’s data), representing a 22% decline on a weekly scale and 25% in a month.

The chart analyst using the X handle Trend River, though, believes ADA may experience a substantial rally in the following months if it mirrors its performance from the past:

“If history repeats itself, we might be on the cusp of ADA’s ultimate support test before skyrocketing. Recall October 2020? The price dipped to $0.10 before soaring to $3.”

The analyst also claimed that fear levels related to Cardano’s native token “are peaking,” which indicates the testing of major support zones. 

“If it manages to hold, we could be at the exact bottom right now before the move to $1,” Trend River predicted.

Who Else Expects a Bullish Trend?

Earlier this month, the X user Ali Martinez presented a chart, according to which ADA’s valuation “is exactly where it should be.” He thinks the token is poised to reach $1.70 as long as it enters the $0.55-$0.80 range. Previously, the analyst envisioned a “parabolic” jump for ADA to a new all-time high of $10.

If you are curious to explore additional price predictions involving Cardano’s native cryptocurrency, feel free to check our dedicated video below: