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BOJ board debated fate of pandemic-relief scheme at Sept mtg -minutes

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BOJ board debated fate of pandemic-relief scheme at Sept mtg -minutes
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A man stands in front of the headquarters of Bank of Japan in Tokyo, Japan, May 22, 2020. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/File Photo

TOKYO (Reuters) – Bank of Japan policymakers debated the fate of a pandemic-relief loan scheme at their September meeting, with one of them proposing phasing it out when the economic impact of the COVID-19 crisis subsides, minutes of the meeting showed on Tuesday.

The nine-member board shared the view that Japan’s economy was likely to improve but several of them pointed to risks, such as the chance supply constraints could last longer and hurt the economy more than expected, the minutes showed.

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Economy

Rough gas storage facility UK to be mothballed

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Rough gas storage facility UK

Rough gas storage facility UK, which was mothballed in 2017 due to safety concerns, will resume operations due to the country’s energy crisis. According to The Telegraph, Centrica, which owns the facility, is ready to begin filling it in early September.

The Occupational Safety and Health Administration has already approved the storage facility’s reopening. Now Centrica needs to coordinate state support and get the go-ahead from the North Sea Transition Authority. According to the authors, both of these tasks “do not appear to be problematic” for the company.

At the same time, the newspaper reports that Rough will initially operate at only a quarter of its capacity. A total of about 3.4 billion cubic meters of natural gas could be pumped there. According to the newspaper’s calculations, a partial return to service would increase the current total volume of blue fuel stored in Great Britain to 1.6 billion cubic meters.

“We can bring Rough back into service by increasing its capacity in stages each winter,” Centrica said.

Economists predict that in January 2023, electricity bills in the UK for local households could rise to more than three thousand pounds per year.

Earlier we reported that the U.S. economy was falling for the second quarter in a row.



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Economy

Will the decline in the US economy begin to slow? The economy is falling for the second quarter in a row. What does it mean?

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decline in the US economy begins to slow

Will the decline in the US economy begin to slow? Compared to the first quarter of 2022, U.S. GDP has fallen by 0.9% year on year, said the country’s Commerce Department. At the same time, the economy was supposed to show growth of 0.3 p. p. This was the second decrease in the year – in the first quarter of 2022; it decreased by 0.3 p p. compared to the previous quarter. The decline in real GDP reflects a decline in private investment in inventories and fixed capital, as well as reduced spending and investment by the federal government.

Decline in the US economy becoming stronger or weaker? 

Despite the decline in real GDP, the Commerce Department reported a 7.8% ($465.1 billion) year-over-year increase in GDP at current prices, as well as an increase in exports and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) related to Americans’ domestic and foreign travel.

Consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of U.S. GDP, increased 1% in Q2 after rising 1.8% a quarter earlier. Business fixed investment fell 3.9% and federal government spending declined 1.9%. Exports jumped 18% last quarter, while imports rose only 3.1%.

Economists at Deutsche Bank predicted recessions in the U.S. and Germany on July 15. In their opinion, markets were seriously changed after the data publication on July 13, which showed an acceleration of consumer price growth in the USA. The futures-markets dynamics allow for an almost 100% probability of a recession in the American economy till the end of 2022.

A report from the International Monetary Fund on July 12 stressed that the U.S. will find it “increasingly difficult” to avoid a recession. The Institute worsened its estimates of the economy: the growth forecast for 2022 was decreased from 2.9% to 2.3%; the real GDP growth expectation for 2023 was decreased from 1.7% to 1%.

The Fed is raising the rate at an accelerated pace: at the last meeting – immediately by 0.75 bp to 1.75%, which was the biggest increase since 1994. However, the current prime rate (1.58%) remains very low – far below both the neutral level (2.5%), and the inflation rate (9.1% in annual terms in June). Most analysts expect the Fed to have to raise the rate to at least 3.75-4% at the end of the year.

We should not expect that the very fact of a recession in the U.S. will have a strong negative impact on other developed world economies. The effect will strongly depend on the depth of the crisis. In any case, the severity of the recession will not be comparable to the Great Depression, when for four years there was a rapid drop in GDP.

Earlier we reported on whether Europe is in a recession.

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Economy

Is Europe in a recession now: the consequences are listed

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is there a recession in Europe

Is Europe in a recession now? The depth of the recession in the eurozone will depend on the pace as well as the extent of the economic decline, which can be tried to regulate by raising key interest rates. The consequences of a recession could be a drop in personal income and a rise in unemployment. 

The euro zone economy is very likely to face a recession, according to 60 percent of experts surveyed by Bloomberg. That number has risen from 45 percent in the last survey and 20 percent since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Is there a recession in Europe? 

Is there a recession in Europe? There are different variations on the speed at which the eurozone is going into this dynamic. Most markets will show zero or negative growth in the third quarter. Naturally, this will have an immediate impact on equity and commodity markets. This, in turn, will lead to big changes in the economy.

Different countries, regions and markets will go into recession unevenly. Most likely, the USA will show one more quarter of negative growth rates, which will be a clear indicator of a departure into this phase. The same is likely to be true for Europe.

There is no recession in China, but the growth rate is already declining. This is also a significant factor which will affect the global economy. The depth of the failure will depend on how the authorities of different countries will react to what is happening: whether they will slow down the increase in rates; whether they will manage to achieve a balance. This will have an impact on the price of raw materials, unemployment, etc.

No precise predictions are impossible to make at the moment: we will have to wait for statistics for the third quarter or at least for August.

Earlier we reported on an unexpected threat to the U.S. economy



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