Economy
Dollar stumbles as rate path fuels recession worries
Published
4 days agoon
By
letizo News
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. dollar banknotes are displayed in this illustration taken, February 14, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic
By Kevin Buckland
TOKYO (Reuters) – The U.S. dollar slipped against its major peers on Friday, on course for its first weekly decline this month as investors assess the path for Federal Reserve policy and whether aggressive rate hikes would trigger a recession.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six rivals, edged down 0.07% to 104.33 in the Asian morning. It fell back from a 0.19% rise the previous day that was driven mostly by a decline in the euro after weak European factory data reduced bets for European Central Bank tightening.
Dollar trading has been choppy this week, with markets now betting on more cautious policy action from the Fed after another expected 75 basis point rate increase in July.
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said on Thursday that she supports 50 basis point hikes for “the next few” meetings after July’s. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in his second day of Congresional testimony, stressed the central bank’s “unconditional” commitment to taming inflation, even amid risks to growth.
Recession fears have tamed Treasury yields, suppressing a key support for the dollar, with that on the 10-year note sliding to a two-week low overnight. [US/]
Against the yen, which is extremely sensitive to changes in U.S. yields, the dollar eased 0.1% to 134.795. For the week, it was down about the same amount, and set to snap a three-week, 6.19% winning streak.
The euro ticked up 0.11% to $1.0533, but after tumbling 0.44% overnight after weaker-than-expected German and French PMI figures.
Germany also triggered the “alarm stage” of its emergency gas plan on Thursday in response to falling Russian supplies.
“The market has started to trim a reasonable amount out of pricing for the next couple of ECB meetings,” National Australia Bank (OTC:NABZY) interest-rate strategist Ken Crompton said on a podcast.
“There have been a couple of factors there which have really added up, which have really started to question how far the ECB will be able to get into its tightening.”
For the week though, the euro remains up 0.44% against the dollar.
Sterling rebounded 0.16% to $1.2281, putting it on track for a 0.5% weekly rise that would end a three-week losing run.
Australia’s dollar ticked up 0.13% to $0.6904, but was still set for a 0.48% weekly decline, its third straight losing week.
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Economy
Asia stocks edge down after Wall Street falls; oil rises
Published
20 mins agoon
June 28, 2022By
letizo News
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A man wearing a protective mask, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, walks past an electronic board displaying graphs (top) of Nikkei index outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan, March 10, 2022. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon
By Julie Zhu
HONG KONG (Reuters) – Asian shares edge down in early trade on Tuesday with investors taking their cue from a volatile Wall Street session overnight, while oil prices climbed following last week’s rout.
Oil continued to rise with investors still weighing worries over an economic slowdown against concern over lost Russian supply amid sanctions related to the conflict in Ukraine.
“A seam of tight supply news bolstered the (oil) market,” analysts at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (OTC:CMWAY) said in a research note. “Political unrest might curtail supply from a couple of second-tier producers, Ecuador and Libya. And then there’s the G7’s proposed price cap on Russian oil.”
Early in the Asian trading day, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.7%. The index is down 3.8% so far this month. U.S. stock futures, the S&P 500 e-minis, were up 0.27%.
Australian shares were up 0.25%, while Japan’s Nikkei stock index rose 0.5%.
China’s blue-chip CSI300 index was 0.4% lower in early trade. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index opened down 0.36%.
On Monday, U.S. stocks ended a volatile trading session slightly lower with few catalysts to sway investor sentiment as they approach the half-way point of a year in which the equity markets have been slammed by heightened inflation worries and tightening Fed policy.
The major U.S. stock indexes lost ground after oscillating earlier in the session, with weakness in interest rate sensitive megacaps such as Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Inc providing the heaviest drag.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%, the S&P 500 lost 0.30% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.72%.
Oil prices rose as the Group of Seven nations promised to tighten the squeeze on Russia’s finances with new sanctions that include a plan to cap the price of Russian oil.
U.S. crude ticked up 0.99% to $110.65 a barrel. Brent crude rose to $116.22 per barrel.
Treasury yields climbed on Monday following capital and durable goods orders data and as pending home sales surprised to the upside from the previous month.
The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes last reached 3.1847% on Tuesday, compared with its U.S. close of 3.194% on Monday. The two-year yield, which rises with traders’ expectations of higher Fed fund rates, touched 3.0974% compared with a U.S. close of 3.123%.
Also, the U.S. dollar edged lower versus major rivals as investors weighed expectations on inflation and interest rate hikes. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies of other major trading partners, was down at 103.91.
Gold was slightly higher. Spot gold was traded at $1,824.28 per ounce. [GOL/]
Economy
Japan says hard to confirm impact from Russia’s debt default
Published
20 mins agoon
June 28, 2022By
letizo News
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Japan’s new Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki wearing a protective mask, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, speaks at a news conference in Tokyo, Japan, October 5, 2021. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon
TOKYO (Reuters) -Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Tuesday that it was “a little difficult” at present to confirm the definite impact on Japan from Russia’s debt default.
Suzuki, who commented on the issue after being asked about it by reporters at a news conference following a regular cabinet meeting, added that any moves in Russian government bonds were likely to have a limited impact on Japanese investors.
“The ratio of investments in Russia as part of Japan’s overall foreign bond investments is limited,” Suzuki said.
“Moves in Russian government bonds are likely to result in limited direct losses for Japanese investors, including financial institutions,” he said.
The White House and Moody’s (NYSE:MCO) credit agency on Monday said Russia had defaulted on its international bonds for the first time in more than a century.
The Kremlin, which has the money to make payments thanks to oil and gas revenues, has rejected the claims that it has defaulted on its external debt.
Economy
Euro gains traction ahead of inflation data, dollar steadies
Published
50 mins agoon
June 28, 2022By
letizo News
© Reuters. A shopper pays with a ten Euro bank note at a local market in Nice, France, June 7, 2022. REUTERS/Eric Gaillard
By Tom Westbrook
SINGAPORE (Reuters) – The euro won support on Tuesday as traders braced for European inflation figures to run hot this week and awaited a speech from central bank chief Christine Lagarde, while worries about a recession kept the U.S. dollar firm.
The euro rose 0.3% overnight and at one point poked above its 50-day moving average. It last sat at $1.0578.
The dollar held modest overnight gains on other currencies and traded at 135.37 yen and $0.6936 per Australian dollar early in the Asia session.
German inflation figures are due on Wednesday, French data on Thursday and euro zone numbers on Friday. European Central Bank President Lagarde is also due to speak at the ECB forum in Sintra, Portugal, at 0800 GMT on Tuesday.
“This set of inflation data will have a significant influence on the ECB’s monetary policy forward guidance, especially on the trajectory … of its interest rate hike cycle that is expected to kick start in July,” said CMC analyst Kelvin Wong.
Hike expectations have the euro trading firmly against the yen and it last bought 143.28 yen, close to last week’s seven-year high of 144.24. It also has momentum on sterling and has gained 1.2% this month to 86.15 pence.
The weak spot is against the Swiss franc which has rocketed to test parity on the common currency following a surprise rate hike by the Swiss National Bank earlier in June.
Moves elsewhere were modest as traders try and navigate between relief that signs of weakness in recent global economic data can moderate rate hikes, and worry that it could be a harbinger of the onset of a difficult period of stagflation.
Some of the heat has come out of bets on U.S. interest rate rises, with the peak in the Federal Reserve’s benchmark funds rate now seen hovering around 3.5% next year rather than 4% or above, but the dollar has not yet fallen far from lofty peaks.
The U.S. dollar index struck a two-decade high of 105.79 this month and was last steady at 103.93.
The risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars have been left behind in last week’s stock market bounce. The kiwi was steady at $0.6306 on Tuesday.
Sterling was similarly becalmed at $1.2274.
“Stay long the dollar until some of the uncertainty has reduced,” said Societe Generale (OTC:SCGLY) strategist Kit Juckes.
“The dollar will fall likely only when the global economy is on a more sustainable growth path … markets are forward-looking, but all we can see ahead today is danger.”
========================================================
Currency bid prices at 0130 GMT
Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid
Previous Change
Session
Euro/Dollar
$1.0579 $1.0583 +0.00% -6.91% +1.0586 +1.0571
Dollar/Yen
135.3050 135.4600 -0.12% +17.63% +135.5850 +135.3000
Euro/Yen
143.15 143.35 -0.14% +9.84% +143.4500 +143.1300
Dollar/Swiss
0.9558 0.9562 -0.07% +4.75% +0.9567 +0.9555
Sterling/Dollar
1.2274 1.2265 +0.07% -9.24% +1.2283 +1.2263
Dollar/Canadian
1.2866 1.2872 -0.05% +1.76% +1.2878 +1.2858
Aussie/Dollar
0.6929 0.6925 +0.09% -4.65% +0.6938 +0.6918
NZ
Dollar/Dollar 0.6300 0.6302 -0.02% -7.96% +0.6307 +0.6293
All spots
Tokyo spots
Europe spots
Volatilities
Tokyo Forex market info from BOJ
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