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Factbox-Rival estimates on the cost of Biden’s $1.75 trillion social spending bill

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Factbox-Rival estimates on the cost of Biden's $1.75 trillion social spending bill
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Congressional Democrats discuss the ‘Build Back Better Act’ and climate investments during a news conference at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, U.S., November 17, 2021. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz/File Photo

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives were pushing ahead on Thursday with a vote on President Joe Biden’s $1.75 trillion domestic spending bill, after a lengthy wait on a Congressional Budget Office report.

The CBO found that the bill would increase the deficit, although the nonpartisan arbiter noted that it did not take into account additional tax enforcement called for in the bill. The White House and Democrats produced their own figures that found the bill paid for itself.

CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE

The research agency, seen as the gold standard for legislative analysis, predicts that Biden’s “Build Back Better” bill would increase the deficit by $367 billion from 2022 to 2031. But the CBO cautions that the estimate does not include any additional revenues from a provision intended to enhance the Internal Revenue Service’s ability to collect tax revenues.

WHITE HOUSE

The White House economic team has produced its own forecast showing the legislation reducing – not increasing – the federal deficit by $36.3 billion over a decade. The sum is based in part on an estimate that the IRS provision would raise $400 billion.

CBO/TREASURY/JOINT TAX COMMITTEE

The White House also produced an estimate that combines separate forecasts from the CBO, the Treasury and the bipartisan Joint Committee on Taxation, an arm of Congress that assesses the tax provisions in legislation.

The CBO/Treasury/JTC estimate forecasts a $112.5 billion deficit reduction over the next decade, based in part on a bigger savings on the cost of Medicare prescription drugs and lower spending estimates on provisions including childcare, universal preschool and housing, compared with the White House estimate.

PENN WHARTON

Republicans in Congress have pointed to more worrisome forecasts from independent sources including the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania.

The Penn Wharton Budget Model estimates that the legislation as written would produce a $274 billion deficit over a decade – smaller than the one forecast by the CBO. But if the bill’s temporary provisions were made permanent, Penn Wharton warns that spending would soar to $4.6 trillion and increase the federal debt 24.4% by 2050.

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Economy

South Korean exports dropped 14% in November, the highest in 2.5 years

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exports South Korea

South Korea’s exports fell 14 percent year-on-year to $51.91 billion in November, preliminary data from the Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy showed. The November drop was the biggest in 2.5 years since May 2020 and was caused both by the deteriorating global economy, which even a Google price chart showed, and a truckers’ strike in the country.

South Korea exports 2022 – reasons for the drop

Exports fell for the second month in a row. Analysts on average expected an 11% decline, according to Trading Economics. Respondents to MarketWatch predicted a 10.5% decline.

Shipments of semiconductor products overseas, the country’s top export item, fell 29.8%; petrochemicals fell 26.5% and steel exports fell 10.6%. Meanwhile, exports of automobiles jumped 31% and petroleum products 26%.

Exports to China, South Korea’s largest trading partner, fell by 25.5%, and to Asian countries – by 13.9%. Below, supplies to the USA grew by 8% and to the European Union – by 0.1%.

In January-November exports rose by 7.8% on the same period last year and reached a record $629.1 billion.

South Korean imports rose 2.7% to $59.2 billion in November, marking the 23rd consecutive month of gains, but the current rate of growth is the lowest since November 2020. Experts had predicted an increase of only 0.2%.

South Korea’s trade deficit last month was $7.01 billion, compared with a surplus of $2,973 billion a year earlier.

The negative balance was recorded for the eighth month in a row. As a result, by the end of 2022, the country may record a foreign trade deficit for the first time since the financial crisis in 2008.

Earlier we reported that the UN estimates the cost of humanitarian aid in 2023 at a record $51 billion.

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Economy

The UN estimates humanitarian aid costs in 2023 at a record $51 billion because of an impending humanitarian crisis

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a humanitarian crisis

Joint humanitarian operations will require a record $51.5 billion in 2023 to address urgent problems.

The UN Office for the OCHA estimates that 339 million people will need urgent aid in 2023. At the same time, OCHA called on donor countries to provide funds for assistance in 2023 to the 230 million people most in need, living in 68 countries.

Griffiths explained that aid is needed not only for people experiencing conflicts and disease outbreaks. but also for those suffering the effects of climate change, such as people in peninsular Somalia facing drought and those in Pakistan experiencing severe flooding. For the first time, the growing humanitarian crisis has brought the number of displaced people worldwide to the 100 million mark. Also worsening an already bad situation is the worldwide coronavirus pandemic, which affects the poor. Note that the general economic crisis has begun to negatively affect even the Netflix price chart.

Earlier we reported that house prices in the UK fell by 1.4% in November.

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Economy

Average house prices in the UK fell 1.4% in November

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average house prices in the uk

Average house prices in the UK fell 1.4% in the previous month in November to 263,788 thousand pounds (about $319,000), according to the British mortgage company Nationwide Building Society.

The decline was recorded at the end of the second consecutive month and was the most significant in almost 2.5 years – since June 2020. Analysts on average had forecast a decline of only 0.3%, according to Trading Economics.

Are house prices in the UK going to fall even more?

Residential real estate prices in November compared to the same month last year increased by 4.4%. At the same time, experts expected a larger increase of 5.8%. The growth rate slowed down significantly compared with 7.2% in October. Because of the difficult economic situation, British investors are investing in other instruments. The Microsoft price chart, for example, is showing potential for growth, so many are interested in the U.S. stock market. 

“The market looks set to remain under pressure in the coming quarters. Inflation will remain high for some time, and interest rates are likely to continue to rise,” believes Nationwide Senior Economist Robert Gardner. – The outlook is unclear, and much will depend on how the overall economy behaves, but a relatively soft landing is still possible.”

Earlier we reported that Sanctions Circumvention was included in the EU’s list of criminal offenses.

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