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Marketmind: A week of central banks

A look at the day ahead from Sujata Rao.

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Marketmind: A week of central banks
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The Federal Reserve building is set against a blue sky in Washington, U.S., May 1, 2020. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

A look at the day ahead from Sujata Rao.

It’s hard to believe that just a month or so back the first Fed rate hike was not expected until Jan 2023. Goldman Sachs (NYSE:) is among those to now predict a hike next July, bringing forecasts forward a whole year after the U.S. core PCE index — the Fed’s preferred inflation measure – came in at 4.4% annualised.

A euro zone rate rise in July? Highly unlikely, even if headline inflation is at 4.1%, nonetheless it’s fully priced.

All of which makes it an scintillating week for central bank watchers, with the Fed likely announcing a taper, the Bank of England an interest rate rise, Norway signalling its second rate hike of the year. The most interesting might be the Reserve Bank of Australia which could revise its guidance after last week letting its 3-year bond yield bust past the targeted 0.1%.

Bond markets are calmer this morning — the yield is down more than 22 bps, after rising 90 bps last week.

Stock markets got off to a good start, with rising 2.3% after an unexpectedly comfortable election victory for Prime minister Fumio Kishida. European shares are opening higher and Wall Street futures are pointing north.

Company results are cheerful too, with analysts upping earnings expectations – among others, Ryanair reported its first quarterly profit since before COVID-19 and jewellery firm Pandora (OTC:) lifted sales and profit margin outlook for the year.

There is no shortage of growth headwinds though. After last week’s below-forecast U.S. Q3 GDP, another reminder from China on Monday, with factory activity shrinking for the second month, while German retail sales dropped 0.9% year/year versus forecasts of a 1.8% rise.

Finally an interesting nugget from BofA which points out that mentions of supply chain issues during Q3 earnings calls were up 412% year-on-year.

(For graphic on supply chain mentions – https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/zdvxormoapx/supplychains.PNG)

Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Monday:

-Biden to tout ‘largest investment’ in climate in Glasgow

-Asian factories shake off lockdown blues, now face supply headaches

– China knocked oil prices lower with forecast it would release gasoline and diesel reserves

– Britain warned France on Monday to back down in a fish row

-International Energy Forum conference starts – 2 days

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Economy

RCB Bank Cyprus latest news: Bank will stop providing banking services to its clients from October 8

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rcb bank cyprus latest news

RCB Bank Cyprus latest news: As of October 8, the bank will cease to provide banking services to its customers. The bank has warned its customers that within two months it will close their accounts. The last day of banking services – October 7, 2022.

In March, RCB Bank, which had close ties with clients from Russia, said it would give up its banking license and transform itself into a management company. In an agreement with the ECB, it stopped attracting new clients.

RCB Bank news today

The bank was planning to negotiate with clients whose liabilities mature after June 2022 about the terms of early repayment with payment of the full amount of the deposit and interest for the period during which the amount was held by the bank.

After all liabilities were fully repaid, RCB planned to transform itself into an asset management company, which would continue to manage the remaining loan portfolio and specialize in providing other services.

At the end of 2020, it had €2.75 billion in deposits, of which €769 million came from retail customers. The Cypriot bank had a combined loan portfolio of 3.5 billion euros. The bank indicated in reports that the most part of the credits were given to organizations which work in Russia and CIS countries.

RCB said in June that it had sold a portfolio of corporate loans worth €356 million to Hellenic Bank. The sale of the loan portfolio will strengthen RCB Bank’s capital and liquidity reserves and create additional reserves that will enable the bank to meet its obligations to all of its clients in full. It was expected that the bank would get more than 500 million euros from the deal.

Earlier we reported that Markets get restless ahead of weekend.

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Economy

Stainless steel market news: EC to impose five-year duties on stainless steel from Russia and Turkey

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stainless steel market

Stainless steel market news: The European Commission, after completing an anti-dumping investigation that covered the period from January 1 to December 31, 2020, decided to impose duties on the supply of corrosion-resistant steel from Russia and Turkey, says the materials EC. 

How will the situation affect steel market prices? 

The investigation was carried out at the request of the European Association of the Steel Industry (Eurofer). The subject of the investigation was rolled steel with galvanized, magnesium, and aluminum coatings. Transformers and high-speed steel were not included in the investigation.

The anti-dumping duty on steel from Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works is 36.6%; from Novolipetsk Steel – 10.3%; from Severstal – 31.3% and from all other mills – 37.4%.

For the Turkish asset MMK (MMK Metalurji) the duty is 10.5%; for other Turkish steel producers – from 2.4% to 11%.

Imports of corrosion-resistant steel from Russia and Turkey increased more than fivefold – from 196,643 tons in 2017 to more than 1 million tons during the investigation period; the share of such metal from these countries increased from 2.2% to 13.1%. At the same time, the EC draws attention to the materials to implement supplies at prices below the average market prices in the EU.

The European Commission recalls that the sanctions imposed against Russia affect the supply of steel products in the region or directly to companies producing and exporting metal during the investigation, and since mid-March a complete ban on the supply of stainless steel to the EU was introduced.

Earlier we reported that Germany’s economic outlook for the second half of the year has deteriorated significantly.

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Economy

German Ministry of Economics news: Economic outlook for the second half of the year significantly worsened

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German Ministry of Economics

German Ministry of Economics news: The ministry said in its monthly report published this Friday that the economy is facing a “considerably worsened outlook” in the second half of the year due to shrinking gas supplies, rising energy prices, supply chain problems, and general uncertainty.

Despite the gloomy economic outlook, Germany’s 10-year bond yield, the benchmark for the eurozone, rose above 1% for the first time since July 28.

Meanwhile, money markets continue to price in a 100% chance of a 50bp rate hike in September.

Now, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0296, down 0.19% for the day.

Earlier we reported that Chip makers fear worst recession in a decade.

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