© Reuters. A shopping cart is seen in a supermarket as inflation affected consumer prices in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., June 10, 2022. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly
A look at the day ahead in markets from Sujata Rao.
A half-point U.S. Fed interest rate rise was always a done deal for Wednesday, but with annual inflation rising at the fastest since 1981, expectations are growing of a 75 basis-point move, either this month, or at one of the bank’s upcoming meetings.
That’s sent two-year Treasury yields to 15-year highs at almost 3.2%, having jumped 40 bps last week. The dollar has surged back to four-week peaks.
GRAPHIC: CPI and wage growth (https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-STOCKS/gkvlgznropb/cpiwages.png)
But the combo of inflation and central bank action is tightening the screws on the economy, sending U.S. consumer sentiment to a record low in early-June.
With the 2-year/10-year Treasury yield curve back on track for inversion, recession warnings are flashing.
The Fed is not the only game in town this week, with policy meetings scheduled in Britain, Japan and Switzerland. The Bank of England, particularly, has its work cut out, after Monday’s data showed GDP shrank in April.
Near-10% inflation (exacerbated by sterling weakness) will force the Bank of England stick to plans for a 25 bps rate hike on Thursday, but navigating the inflation-growth dilemma may prove trickier than elsewhere.
Given inflation angst has transformed hitherto-dovish policymakers into hawks, more surprises may loom; the Swiss National Bank may decide on Thursday it’s time for a hawkish pivot and Sweden may spring a half-point rate rise on Friday.
And Japan? The yen is at 24-year lows beyond 135.20 per dollar, despite last week’s joint government-central bank statement that raised expectations of currency intervention.
What would really stem yen decline is a softer Bank of Japan line on yield curve control.
But there’s no such pivot yet; the BOJ plans to buy 500 billion yen ($3.70 billion) of government bonds on Tuesday to keep 10-year yields within 0.25 percentage points around 0%.
Throw in Beijing’s new “ferocious” COVID-19 outbreak and global recession increasingly seems like a done deal.
European and U.S. shares are looking at a dour session ahead and world stocks are at the lowest in three weeks.
GRAPHIC: Japan currency (https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/myvmnwzrlpr/G10%20FX%20performance%20YTD.JPG)
Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Monday:
– Oil falls, spooked by Beijing COVID warning and inflation
-French President Emmanuel Macron has a razor-thin edge over the left, first parliament elections show
-ECB policymakers Robert Holzmann and Luis de Guindos speak
Oil Prices Fall amid Protests in China
Oil prices fell on Monday amid a general decline in investor appetite for risk amid information about the ongoing protests in China against vested restrictions.
The cost of January futures on Brent crude oil on London’s ICE Futures exchange was $81.31 per barrel on Monday, down $2.32 (2.77%) from the close of the previous session. At the close of trading on Friday, those contracts fell $1.71 per barrel to $83.63.
Oil prices decline – what’s going on in the market?
The price of WTI futures for January crude fell by $2.31 (3.03%) to $73.97 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). By closing of previous trades, the cost of these contracts decreased by $1.66 (2.1%) to $76.28 per barrel. Brent and WTI gained 4.6% and 4.8%, respectively, last week.
According to Bloomberg, protests were held in cities across the country, including the capital Beijing, as well as Shanghai, Xinjiang, and Wuhan, which was originally the epicenter of the COVID-19 spread.
That contributes to a stronger U.S. dollar, which reduces the attractiveness of investments in crude, and also raises the possibility of even more significant tightening of restrictions by Chinese authorities, the agency said.
“The outlook for the oil market remains unfavorable and the events of this weekend in China do not add to the positive,” notes Warren Patterson, who is in charge of commodities strategy at ING Groep NV in Singapore.
According to the forecast of analytical company Kpler, oil demand in China in the fourth quarter will decrease to 15.11 million barrels per day (bpd) compared to 15.82 million bpd a year earlier.
Earlier we reported that Russia will ban the sale of its oil to countries that have imposed a price ceiling.
Oil Russia ban news: Russia will ban the sale of its oil to countries that have imposed a price ceiling
Will Russia sell oil to Europe? The administration of President Vladimir Putin is preparing an order prohibiting Russian companies and any trader from buying Russian oil to sell raw materials to countries and companies that have imposed a price ceiling on Moscow. Bloomberg news agency wrote this, citing a report from sources.
“The Kremlin is preparing a presidential decree banning Russian companies and any traders buying national oil from selling it to anyone who participates in the price ceiling,” the publication wrote.
According to the newspaper’s interlocutors, this would prohibit any mention of the price ceiling in contracts for Russian crude, as well as transferring it to countries that have joined the price ceiling for the natural resource.
In the first half of September, the press service of the US Treasury Department said that the USA, together with its allies from G7 (Great Britain, Germany, Italy, Canada, France and Japan) and the European Union (EU) would impose a ban on marine transportation of Russian oil on December 5 and oil products – on February 5.
Earlier we reported that EU negotiations on limiting the prices of Russian oil reached a deadlock today.
EU talks on restrictions on Russian crude oil prices today stalled
Negotiations between the European Union countries about the “ceiling” of Russian crude oil prices today reached an impasse; Bloomberg reported, according to its sources.
Representatives of the bloc cannot reach an agreement on the ceiling price of Russian oil. According to the agency, the proposed European Commission limit of $65-70 per barrel, Poland and the Baltic countries believe “too generous,” while Greece and Malta, which is actively engaged in transporting fuel, do not want the limit to fall below $ 70. Recall that the Russian response to the oil price cap was negative. The Russian government has officially said that it will only sell oil at market prices.
“We are looking for ways to make this solution work and we are trying to find a common ground to implement it in a perfectly pragmatic and efficient way, while avoiding that it may cause excessive inconvenience to the European Union,” said German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
Earlier, we reported that the SEC fined Goldman Sachs $4 million for non-compliance with ESG fund principles.
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