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Economy

U.S. profit forecasts weaken as companies assess inflation risks

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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A specialist trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, August 21, 2015. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

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By Caroline Valetkevitch

NEW YORK (Reuters) – With first-quarter U.S. earnings in the final stretch, corporate growth expectations for the current quarter and 2022 mostly are declining as costs surge for oil and other supplies and interest rates rise.

Sky-high oil has boosted forecasts for energy company earnings while feeding into concerns about profit margins for many other S&P 500 industries.

Disappointing outlooks from Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN), Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) and other major players have stood out among recent reports, even as the first quarter’s estimated year-over-year profit growth has risen to 10.4% from 6.4% at the start of April, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.

Amazon.com delivered a disappointing quarter and outlook, saying it was swamped by higher costs to run its warehouses and deliver packages.

As of Friday, analysts had lowered their overall forecast for S&P 500 second-quarter profit growth to 5.6% from 6.8% at the start of April, while the full-year forecast has held at 8.8%, based on Refinitiv data.

The 2022 growth estimate, however, drops to about 5% without the energy sector’s growth – a sizeable impact for a sector that accounts for just 4% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization.

“There will be more downside given the oil shock that we saw,” said Ohsung Kwon, U.S. equity strategist at BofA Securities in New York.

“It’s going to take some time for this to play out,” he said. “It’s not just from energy; it’s overall inflation, plus the higher rate environment.”

To be sure, negative corporate outlooks typically outnumber positive ones in a quarter because companies tend to be cautious when giving guidance.

But, according to BofA data, the three-month ratio of above-consensus corporate guidance versus below-consensus guidance fell in April to its lowest level since June 2020.

Stocks have slumped in recent weeks as investors worried the Federal Reserve may need to hike interest rates more aggressively to tame inflation. The S&P 500 is down about 13% for the year so far.

On Wednesday, the U.S. central bank raised rates by half a percentage point as expected. Recent data showed U.S. monthly consumer prices in March increased by the most in 16-1/2 years, as Russia’s war against Ukraine boosted the cost of gasoline to record highs.

Forward-looking comments from companies have done little to allay investor fears.

“If anything, the comments from CEOs are just reflecting the same macro-economic concerns,” said Shannon Saccocia, chief investment officer at SVB Private Bank. “They have been very conservative because they have very little transparency on how well engineered an economic slowdown will be.”

Since the start of April, estimated 2022 S&P 500 energy sector earnings growth has gone up to about 93% from about 65%, per Refinitiv data. Over that same period, the 2022 S&P 500 consumer discretionary earnings growth forecast has gone down to about 7% from 17%.

“If inflation peaks, we’ll be OK and we’ll continue to see growth,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York. “If not, then it’s going to be a problem. Companies are going to have to do cost cuttings even though they might have earnings that on the surface look good.”

Economy

Brazil’s govt will maintain GDP outlook for 2022 and 2023 -sources

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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Consumers shop at a weekly street market in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, September 2, 2021. REUTERS/Ricardo Moraes

By Marcela Ayres

BRASILIA (Reuters) – Brazil’s Economy Ministry will hold its economic growth outlook at 1.5% in 2022 and 2.5% in 2023, two officials told Reuters on Wednesday, forecasting activity ahead of market projections due to labor market strength and growing private investments.

The ministry will update its forecasts for economic indicators on Thursday and inflation figures are expected to be lifted from the previous outlook, in March, when the IPCA consumer price index was seen at 6.55% this year.

Data will be used in the bi-monthly income and expenditure report calculations, scheduled for Friday.

Economists have been increasing their forecasts for this year’s GDP, bringing the numbers closer to those forecast by the government.

Analysts say demand in the country has been helped by greater fiscal stimulus, following an increase in a cash transfer program to poorer people. In addition, the job market has shown signs of strength and the Omicron coronavirus wave has not knocked social mobility as feared.

However, they say expectations for 2023 have deteriorated, with aggressive central bank monetary tightening to tame inflation set to affect activity from the second half of the year onwards.

The central bank has raised interest rates to 12.75% from a record-low 2% in March 2021, and has already signaled another likely hike in June.

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) and Credit Suisse now see Brazil’s GDP rising 1.25% and 1.4% this year, respectively, against previous 0.6% and 0.2% projections. For 2023, Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast to 0.9% from 1.2%, while Credit Suisse cut its outlook to 0.9% from 2.1%.

Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) projected on Tuesday that Brazil will grow 1.5% in 2022 from 0.5% earlier. However, expansion is now seen at 0.9% in 2023, from 1.8% previously.

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Economy

Factbox-U.S. companies offering abortion travel benefits

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© Reuters. Signage is seen at an Amazon facility in Staten Island, New York City, U.S., April 24, 2022. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly

(Reuters) -A small but growing number of companies, including Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) Inc, are rolling out policies to offer benefits to U.S. employees who may need to access abortion services as some state legislatures impose tighter restrictions.

An unprecedented leak of a draft opinion earlier this month suggests that the U.S. Supreme Court is set to vote to overturn the landmark 1973 Roe v. Wade ruling, which legalized abortion nationwide.

Following is a list of companies who have offered their U.S. employees reproductive healthcare benefits including abortion coverage or travel benefits for out-of-state abortions.

Company Benefit(s) Offered

Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C) The bank has started covering travel expenses for employees

who go out of state for abortions because of newly enacted

restrictions in Texas and other places, becoming the first

major U.S. bank to make that commitment.

Yelp (NYSE:YELP) Inc The crowd-sourced review platform will extend its abortion

coverage to cover expenses for its employees and their

dependents who need to travel to another state for abortion

services.

Amazon.com The second-largest U.S. private employer told employees it

will pay up to $4,000 in travel expenses yearly for

non-life threatening medical treatments, among them

elective abortions.

Levi Strauss (NYSE:LEVI) & CO The apparel company will reimburse travel expenses for its

full- and part-time employees who need to travel to another

state for healthcare services, including abortions.

United Talent Agency The private Hollywood talent agency said it would reimburse

travel expenses related to women’s reproductive health

services that are not accessible in an employee’s state of

residence.

Tesla Inc Tesla’s Safety Net program and health insurance includes

travel and lodging support for its employees who may need

to seek healthcare services that are unavailable in their

home state, according to the company’s 2021 impact report.

[https://www.tesla.com/ns_videos/2021-tesla-impact-report.pdf

]

Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) Microsoft Corp said that it would extend its abortion and

gender affirming care services for employees in the United

States to include travel expense assistance.

Starbucks Corp (NASDAQ:SBUX) Starbucks Corp said it will reimburse U.S. employees and

their dependents if they must travel more than 100 miles

from their homes to obtain an abortion.

Mastercard Inc (NYSE:MA) Mastercard Inc said it will fund travel and lodging for

employees seeking abortions outside their home states from

June, according to an internal memo seen by Reuters.

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Economy

Stocks pummeled by growth worries, U.S. dollar climbs

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© Reuters. A passerby wearing a protective face mask walks past an electric screen displaying a graph showing Japan’s Nikkei share average, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, in Tokyo, Japan February 24, 2022. REUTERS/Issei Kato/Files

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By Herbert Lash and Chuck Mikolajczak

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Global stocks plunged and the dollar strengthened for the first time in four sessions on Wednesday as concerns about rising inflation on economic growth soured sentiment.

The mood was underscored by a 9% surge in British consumer prices and a faster-than-expected acceleration in inflation in Canada.

British inflation surged to its highest annual rate since 1982 as energy bills soared, while Canadian inflation rose to 6.8% last month, largely driven by rising food and shelter prices, Statistics Canada data showed.

British inflation is now the highest among major economies in Europe, but prices are rapidly rising worldwide, forcing central banks around the globe to hike interest rates and tamp down growth as suggested by a modest decline in U.S. homebuilding in April.

Soaring prices and material shortages have already hit homebuilding, the sector of the economy most sensitive to rates. But the U.S. Commerce Department report also showed a record backlog of houses to be built, indicating a decline in homebuilding potentially might be marginal.

Adding to the gloom caused by inflation were earnings results from Target Corp (NYSE:TGT), whose quarterly profit halved as it warned of a bigger margin hit this year due to rising fuel and freight costs.

Target shares plummeted 24.88%, its biggest one-day percentage drop since the “Black Monday” stock market crash on Oct. 19, 1987, a day after Walmart (NYSE:WMT) Inc warned of similar margin squeezes and saw its stock drop 11.4% for its biggest one-day percentage fall since Oct. 16, 1987.

“It was Walmart yesterday and everybody thought it was a one-off,” said Dennis Dick, head of markets structure and a proprietary trader at Bright Trading LLC in Las Vegas. “Now that Target misses earning a lot more than Walmart even did, they’re scared that consumer is not as strong as everybody think it is.”

MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe shed 2.74%, while in Europe, the pan-regional STOXX 600 index closed down 1.14%.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 3.56%, the S&P 500 lost 4.03% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 4.73%.

The declines for the S&P 500 and Dow marked their biggest one-day percentage declines since June 11, 2020.

Few analysts are willing to predict the end to selling after a bruising first five months of the year for risk assets given the magnitude of macroeconomic uncertainty, with many anticipating market volatility will be the norm for some time.

The U.S. dollar gained ground as the sell-off in risk assets boosted the safe-haven appeal of the greenback, which was on pace to snap a three-session losing streak, a day after Fed Chair Jerome Powell pledged the U.S. central bank would ratchet up rates as high as needed to combat rising inflation.

The dollar index rose 0.581%, with the euro down 0.8% to $1.0463. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.92% to 128.23 per dollar.

Treasury yields fell, although a steep path for rates remained the prevailing market consensus as the benchmark 10-year note yield hit a one-week high of 3.015% after Powell’s hawkish comments.

The yield fell 8.1 basis points to 2.890% on Wednesday after a soft U.S. housing starts number.

The German two-year government bond yield shot to 0.444%, its highest since November 2011 after more hawkish central banker comments, and last was up 1.6 basis points at 0.386%. The European Central Bank’s Klaas Knot said on Tuesday that a 50-basis-point rate hike in July was possible if inflation broadens.

Gold prices were little changed despite the risk-off environment as looming U.S. interest rate hikes and a resurgent dollar dimmed the metal’s shine.

Spot gold was up 0.1% at $1,816.06 an ounce.

Oil prices dipped in volatile trade, reversing early gains as traders grew less worried about a supply crunch after government data showed U.S. refiners ramped up output.

U.S. crude settled down 2.5% at $109.59 per barrel and Brent settled at $109.11, down 2.52% on the day.

GRAPHIC: MSCI World equity index (https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/movanzkkopa/world%20stocks.PNG)

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