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U.S. to start raising interest rates from Sept 2022 – JP Morgan

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U.S. to start raising interest rates from Sept 2022 - JP Morgan
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The Federal Reserve building is pictured in Washington, D.C., U.S., August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Chris Wattie/File Photo

LONDON (Reuters) – The U.S. Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates from September 2022, economists at the country’s biggest bank said in a 2022 outlook note.

JPMorgan (NYSE:) expects the central bank to raise rates by 0.25% from the third quarter of next year and keep raising them by 25 basis points every quarter “at least until real rates are at zero,” the team led by chief economist Mike Feroli wrote.

Ten-year inflation-adjusted yields or “real yields” stood at minus 1.12% on Thursday.

The bank’s forecast for the first Fed rate hike is a little more conservative than at some rivals, such as Deutsche Bank (DE:), which expects the first U.S. hike as early as July 2022. Money markets expect the first increase at a similar time.

JPMorgan’s economists expect U.S. economic growth to average 3.5% in 2022, compared to 5.5% in 2021, and full employment to be achieved by mid-2022.

Inflation is also expected to slow in the coming quarters, with core prices projected to average 2.2% by the third quarter of 2022 compared to 4.2% in the fourth quarter of 2021.

“Supply bottlenecks in the goods sector appear to be easing, and we expect that to continue in 2022,” the economists wrote.

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Economy

Oil Russia ban news: Russia will ban the sale of its oil to countries that have imposed a price ceiling

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oil Russia ban

Will Russia sell oil to Europe? The administration of President Vladimir Putin is preparing an order prohibiting Russian companies and any trader from buying Russian oil to sell raw materials to countries and companies that have imposed a price ceiling on Moscow. Bloomberg news agency wrote this, citing a report from sources.

“The Kremlin is preparing a presidential decree banning Russian companies and any traders buying national oil from selling it to anyone who participates in the price ceiling,” the publication wrote.

According to the newspaper’s interlocutors, this would prohibit any mention of the price ceiling in contracts for Russian crude, as well as transferring it to countries that have joined the price ceiling for the natural resource.

In the first half of September, the press service of the US Treasury Department said that the USA, together with its allies from G7 (Great Britain, Germany, Italy, Canada, France and Japan) and the European Union (EU) would impose a ban on marine transportation of Russian oil on December 5 and oil products – on February 5.

Earlier we reported that EU negotiations on limiting the prices of Russian oil reached a deadlock today.

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Economy

EU talks on restrictions on Russian crude oil prices today stalled

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russian crude oil price today

Negotiations between the European Union countries about the “ceiling” of Russian crude oil prices today reached an impasse; Bloomberg reported, according to its sources.

Representatives of the bloc cannot reach an agreement on the ceiling price of Russian oil. According to the agency, the proposed European Commission limit of $65-70 per barrel, Poland and the Baltic countries believe “too generous,” while Greece and Malta, which is actively engaged in transporting fuel, do not want the limit to fall below $ 70. Recall that the Russian response to the oil price cap was negative. The Russian government has officially said that it will only sell oil at market prices.

“We are looking for ways to make this solution work and we are trying to find a common ground to implement it in a perfectly pragmatic and efficient way, while avoiding that it may cause excessive inconvenience to the European Union,” said German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

Earlier, we reported that the SEC fined Goldman Sachs $4 million for non-compliance with ESG fund principles.

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Economy

More than 50% of Germans said they had given up shopping for new clothes and electronics. Is Germany’s economy failing?

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is germany's economy failing

Die Welt newspaper cited a survey by the consulting company EY and said that about 56% of Germans who took part in the survey said that they had practically refused to buy new clothes.

Also, 56% of German consumers reported that they now refrain from buying televisions, smartphones, laptops and game consoles. Also, nearly one in two now uses less gasoline, and one in four said they are saving on medications.

What caused the economic crisis in Germany? The main reason is the war in Ukraine and the resulting sanctions by the EU. Also, every second respondent reported that at the moment he could buy only the essentials. According to EY analysts, German households plan to further reduce spending in the coming months. In particular, they plan to save money on food delivery and entertainment.

Earlier, we reported that prices for liquefied natural gas in Asia reached their highest since October.

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