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Dollar Edges Higher; PCE Data Points to Early Fed Hike

By Peter Nurse

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Dollar Edges Higher; PCE Data Points to Early Fed Hike
© Reuters.

By Peter Nurse

Investing.com – The dollar pushed higher in early European trading Monday, continuing the previous session’s gains after strong inflation numbers cemented the case for tapering at this week’s Federal Reserve meeting.

At 3:05 AM ET (0805 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% higher at 94.243, just below Friday’s peak of 94.302, a level not seen since Oct. 13.

This follows the release of data Friday which showed the Fed’s favorite inflation measure, , rising at an annual 4.4% in September, the fastest since 1991.

The central bank holds a two-day this week, concluding on Wednesday, and is widely expected then to announce a tapering of stimulus. However, these continued inflationary pressures have solidified market expectations that the Fed will start increasing interest rates earlier than previously guided.

Influential investment bank Goldman Sachs (NYSE:) has responded by bringing forward its forecast by a year to July 2022 for the first U.S. interest rate hike following the pandemic.

“The main reason for the change in our liftoff call is that we now expect core PCE inflation to remain above 3% — and core CPI inflation above 4% — when the taper concludes,” Goldman’s chief economist, Jan Hatzius, wrote in a client note over the weekend. 

traded 0.3% higher at 114.33, just below the strongest level since Oct. 20, after Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party defied expectations and held onto its strong majority in Sunday’s parliamentary election. This could mean that he now has leeway to push through more stimulus to boost the beleaguered economy, at the expense of the yen.

dropped 0.2% to 1.3659 ahead of Thursday’s , which could see the central bank lift interest rates if it judges the country’s economy to be strong enough to cope as inflation mounts.

was 0.3% lower at 0.7502, retreating from a near four-month high of 0.7555 reached last week ahead of Tuesday’s meeting of the .

The country’s central bank is under pressure to drop a commitment to keep yields on its April 2024 target bond at 0.1% as house prices soar. Late last week it chose not to defend the 0.1% target for three-year bond yields, which consequently rose to over 0.8%. 

fell 0.1% to 1.1553, only marginally above Friday’s low of 1.1535, the weakest since Oct. 13, which followed Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting.

 

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Forex

Current yuan to dollar exchange rate has fallen to its lowest since 2008

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current yuan to dollar exchange rate

Current yuan to dollar exchange rate dropped to 7.2256 yuan per dollar. This is the lowest level in 14 years, reports RBC. The offshore yuan-dollar exchange rate has fallen to a record low of 7.2577 yuan per dollar since China began trading the currency in 2010.

The People’s Bank of China sets reference exchange rates for the yuan daily. On Tuesday it set the yuan-dollar exchange rate at 7.0722 yuan. This was the lowest since July 2020. The exchange rate of the yuan, which is traded in mainland China, is controlled by the NBK and can deviate from the reference rate by no more than 2 percent in either direction during the day. In Hong Kong and Macau, the CNH offshore exchange rate to foreign currencies may vary without restrictions.

The Chinese yuan to dollar exchange rate today fell to its weakest level since the 2008 global financial crisis amid persistent dollar appreciation against major currencies and fears that China is weakening support for its currency.

The yuan has fallen more than 4 percent against the dollar this month and may post its worst performance in a year since 1994, the publication estimated. China’s currency is under pressure as the country’s monetary policy diverges from U.S. policy, leading to capital outflows.

Earlier we reported on history low for the pound British.

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History low for the pound British

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history low for the pound british

Today we can observe history low for the British pound. The British pound has fallen in the international forex market by almost 5% against the dollar – to a record low of $1.0384. The pound fell 0.85% against the U.S. dollar to $1.0762.

The British currency depreciated after the Ministry of Finance of the country promised to continue cutting taxes, raising fears that the new policy will lead to a sharp rise in inflation and the national debt, Bloomberg wrote. The pound’s collapse was the biggest intraday drop since March 2020, when markets were panicked by the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, the publication estimated.

The sell-off in the currency began on Friday, after the government announced a plan for a massive tax cut in the U.K., which will affect individuals and businesses and increase the budget deficit.

“History low for the British pound shows that markets do not trust the UK,” said Saxo Capital Markets strategist Jessica Amir. – The pound is one step away from parity with the dollar, and things will only get worse from here.”

The British currency has already fallen 20% against the dollar this year. According to Bloomberg, the fall in the British pound sterling in 2022 surpassed the collapse seen after the vote to leave the European Union (Brexit) in 2016. At that time, the U.K. currency depreciated by about 16% in one year.

Earlier we reported that the dollar is getting cheaper against most currencies after rising the day before.

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The dollar is getting cheaper against most currencies after rising the day before. Global money is getting cheaper

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money getting cheaper

The dollar is getting cheaper against the euro, the yen and the pound sterling today after a solid rise in the previous session on the background of the fact that all the world’s money’s getting cheaper. 

The dollar is correcting because investors are trying to fix profits after its significant strengthening, said Trading Economics. Experts believe that the U.S. currency will continue to strengthen on the background of a rapid tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve (FRS). Also, the dollar is supported by reducing the appetite for risk in world markets.

Further growth in volatility in the financial markets will strengthen the dollar because of its status as a “safe haven” currency, said an analyst on the currency market, CBA Carol Kong.

The euro rose 0.53% to $0.9660 against the dollar, up from $0.9609 at the close of the previous session. The day before, European currencies were cheaper against the dollar by 0.8%.

The pound rose by 1.07% to $1.0803 during the trading session, compared to $1.0689 the day before. The exchange rate of the dollar against yen decreased by 0.30% – down to 144.31 yen against 144.75 yen by the end of the previous session. On Monday the American currency grew by 1.5% against the pound and by 1% against the yen.

The index, calculated by ICE, which shows the dollar trend against six currencies (euro, Swiss franc, yen, Canadian dollar, pound sterling and the Swedish krone), was losing 0.5% during trading. The day before, the indicator had updated its 20-year high.

Earlier we reported that the Nasdaq is on the plus side amid signs that growth stocks are recovering.

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