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Forex

US dollar softer ahead of election and jobs data

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By Laura Matthews

NEW YORK (Reuters) -The dollar softened against other major currencies on Wednesday, after stronger-than-expected U.S. data and a UK budget release set off choppy trading in a market awaiting jobs data later this week and a U.S. election the next.

U.S. private payrolls growth surged in October, overcoming fears of temporary disruptions from hurricanes and strikes, according to the ADP National Employment Report.

Meanwhile, separate data showed the U.S. economy grew at an annualised rate of 2.8% in the third quarter, slightly lower than the 3% expected by economists.

The , which measures the currency against six major rivals, rose to 104.43 earlier in the session but was last seen down 0.17% to 104.06. It rose to the highest since July 30 at 104.63 on Tuesday.

“Besides sterling, I think today is about position adjusting ahead of the data on Friday,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex. “The two big uncertainties are the U.S. jobs data on Friday and the U.S. election.”

Mixed U.S. indicators overnight, showing a loosening U.S. jobs market but a confident consumer, provided little clarity on the outlook for Federal Reserve rates, allowing the greenback to drift lower with Treasury yields.

Recently though, economic readings have pointed to a resilient jobs market and economy, spurring traders to pare back their bets on rate cuts.

Uto Shinohara, senior investment strategist at Mesirow Currency Management in Chicago, said markets have priced in a 25-basis-point cut for November’s Fed meeting, but that another cut in December remains a coin flip.

“With the focus more on employment data, a strong non-farm payroll print would provide Fed ammunition for a December pause,” said Shinohara. “Although the election result can have a major consequence on rates over the next presidential term, the effect in the short-term will be dependent upon employment and growth.”

Both the dollar and U.S. bond yields have also been buoyed in recent days by rising speculation in markets and on some betting platforms of a victory in the Nov. 5 presidential election for Republican candidate Donald Trump – whose tariff and immigration policies are seen as inflationary – and who is standing against Democrat Kamala Harris.

That helped leading cryptocurrency bitcoin surge to near its all-time high from March at $73,803.25, as Trump has vowed to make the United States “the crypto capital of the planet”.

The token last changed hands at about $71,959, after pushing as high as $73,609.88 in the previous session.

UK BUDGET

Sterling, which fell as much as 0.6% as British finance minister Rachel Reeves delivered the Labour government’s first budget, was last down 0.34% at $1.2971.

Gilt yields initially fell during Reeves’ budget but then rose later in the session, with the 10-year UK government bond yield rising 6 basis points to hit 4.39%, its highest since late May.

Reeves, along with Prime Minister Keir Starmer, has reiterated the need for tough fiscal measures to help improve Britain’s public finances.

They are seeking to retain the confidence of investors, two years after then-prime minister Liz Truss’ tax-cutting plans sparked a crisis in the bond market.

“I think generally, the expectations were fairly low for the budget, and they delivered a fairly reasonable budget,” said Amo Sahota, director at Klarity FX, San Francisco. “Sterling has managed to avoid a major slip up here, and actually it has been a bit more supportive of the pound than I thought.”

The euro was last up 0.36% at $1.0857, while the dollar was flat at 153.42 yen.

German growth and regional inflation data came in stronger than expected causing traders to trim their bets on an outsized rate cut from the European Central Bank in December.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this photo illustration taken February 12, 2018. REUTERS/Jose Luis Gonzalez/Illustration/File Photo

The euro zone economy also grew 0.4% in the third quarter, more than the 0.2% expected by economists.

The dollar, which dropped as low as $0.6537 for the first time since Aug. 8, after data showed inflation slowed to a 3-1/2-year low, was up 0.26% at $0.6577.

Forex

Stronger dollar unlikely to limit tariff hit to US consumers – UBS

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Investing.com – The US dollar has gained strongly since the US presidential election in November, but these gains are unlikely to limit the hit that US customers are likely to face from tariffs, according to UBS.

At 08:25 ET (13:25 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% lower to 108.950, but was around 1.5% higher over the last month, and remained not far from the more than two-year high seen last week.

The theory is that a stronger dollar lowers US import prices, said analysts at UBS, in a note dated Jan. 17. Those lower prices would partially offset the tax payments US consumers must make to the US Treasury when buying imports.

If the US paid for the Chinese imports, then a stronger dollar would automatically reduce the amount of dollars paid (fewer dollars are exchanged to pay the renminbi price). However, the US pays for practically all its imports in dollars, so this does not happen. 

If the dollar strengthens, the dollar price is unchanged, unless the exporter consciously chooses to lower the dollar price of the goods sold, UBS added.

An exporter to the US might deliberately lower dollar prices, as (in dollar terms) local currency costs are lower. But local currency costs are only a fraction of a manufacturer’s costs. 

“A Chinese electronics manufacturer, importing chips (bought in dollars) and exporting computers to the US (in dollars), will probably keep their dollar prices stable—ignoring currency moves,” UBS added.

The US dollar strengthened against China’s renminbi in 2016 and 2018/19, and US import price inflation for products from China showed no noticeable break with earlier trends. 

The preference seems to have been to reroute supply chains as a way of avoiding trade taxes.

 

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Forex

Dollar slumps after WSJ report; Trump tariffs may be delayed

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Investing.com – The US dollar slumped Monday following a report that indicated that President-elect Donald Trump was set to delay imposing trade tariffs immediately upon his inauguration, an expectation which had boosted the US currency following his November election victory.

At 09:20 ET (14:20 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 1.1% lower to 108.020, having climbed to a more than two-year high last week.

The Wall Street Journal reported Monday that Trump is planning to issue a broad memorandum on his inauguration that directs federal agencies to study trade policies and evaluate US trade relationships with China and America’s continental neighbors—but stops short of imposing new tariffs on his first day in office.

The memo, which the WSJ has seen, suggests that debates are still ongoing within the incoming administration over how to deliver on Trump’s campaign trail promises for hefty tariffs on imports from trade rivals such as China. 

The dollar has gained around 4% since the November presidential election as traders anticipated Trump’s policies will be inflationary, necessitating higher interest rates for a longer period.

“Financial markets are on tenterhooks to see what executive orders newly elected US President Donald Trump will enact on his first day,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

“FX markets are most interested in what he has to say about tariffs and what kind of pain the Oval Office plans to inflict on major trade partners.”

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Forex

USD/CNY: Repo rates surge amid tax payment week-BofA

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Bank of America (BofA) noted a significant increase in repo rates during the week of January 13 due to heightened liquidity demand triggered by tax payments and limited funding provided by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC).

The liquidity squeeze was most noticeable on January 16, the day following the tax payment deadline, with DR007 and R007 reaching 2.34% and 4.19%, respectively.

The PBoC maintained its stance on defending the exchange rate stability, resulting in the tightness of (RMB) liquidity being felt in the offshore market as well.

On January 9, the central bank announced it would issue RMB60 billion of 6-month bills in Hong Kong, a significant increase compared to previous issuances. The coupon rate of 3.4% was notably higher than the December issuance, reflecting the tightness of CNH liquidity and subdued demand from investors.

The December FX settlement balance by banks’ clients fell further to a deficit of US$10.5 billion, the first deficit reading since July 2024. A key change from the previous month was a sharp increase in USD demand for service trade. Reports also suggest that domestic importers have been actively purchasing USD via FX forward to hedge against tariffs risk in recent weeks, which has been exerting upward pressure on forward points.

On January 13, the PBoC increased the cross-border macroprudential parameter to 1.75 from 1.50. This move allows domestic corporations and Financial Institutions (FIs) to conduct more cross-border borrowing.

Given the widened interest rate gap between China and overseas, BofA believes this is more of a symbolic move by the PBoC to anchor market’s expectation on FX.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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