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Global advertising to grow by 8.4% this year -report

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© Reuters. A woman carries a bunch of balloons through Times Square in New York, U.S., June 26, 2019. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY

By Helen Coster

(Reuters) – The global advertising industry is expected to grow 8.4% this year, despite ongoing geopolitical situations around the world and fears of a recession, a report on the sector said on Monday.

That figure excludes the impact of U.S. political advertising, which is on track to reach $13 billion in revenue this year, up from $12 billion in 2020, the report from ad agency GroupM, a unit of WPP (LON:WPP) PLC showed.

The advertising market, which typically tracks the broader health of economies, is settling after experiencing highs in 2021, when it was boosted by strong economic recovery and personal consumption.

Sources of growth in 2022 include increasing numbers of new small businesses, which are likely to advertise at higher levels than the business they are replacing; venture-funded “new economy” advertisers seeking growth; and Chinese-based marketers advertising abroad, the report showed. The expected deceleration of e-commerce and interest rate hikes will be a drag on growth.

“Although the overall economy and environment is more negative now than it was in December, broadly speaking, people in our industry and I think many pundits are overly negative relative to the reality of how the overall economy is faring,” said Brian Wieser, the president of business intelligence at GroupM, in a call with journalists.

The report forecasts ad revenue for pure-play digital platforms to grow 11.5% in 2022, down from 32% growth in 2021. Digital advertising on those platforms will represent 67% of the industry’s total revenue this year, excluding U.S. political advertising.

Television advertising is expected to grow 4.4% in 2022, boosted by ad-supported streaming services such as Paramount Global-owned Pluto and Fox Corp-owned Tubi. TV advertising growth broadly is poised to flatten in the next five years. For many marketers, Alphabet-owned YouTube will look “increasingly like a substitute to television,” according to the report.

Stock Markets

European stock markets mostly closed lower

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european stock markets

In yesterday’s trading, most European stock markets declined after the release of statistical data, which showed a decline in business activity in the region for the fifth month in a row.

The composite index of the largest companies in the region, Stoxx Europe 600, by market close fell by 0.3% to 441.47 points. Germany’s Dax Index fell by 0.56%; France’s CAC 40 – by 0.67%; Italy’s FTSE MIB – by 0.3% and Spain’s IBEX 35 – by 0.15%. Meanwhile, the British FTSE 100 added 0.15%, thanks to growth in shares of some major companies. 

Why are European stock markets falling?

According to final data, the composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) of the euro area, calculated by S & P Global, in November rose to 47.8 points from 47.3 points a month earlier. The dynamics of the indicator coincided with the preliminary estimate and with the expectations of analysts.

The indicator value below 50 points indicates a reduction in business activity in the sector. The index has remained below that mark for five consecutive months amid an energy and geopolitical crisis in Europe, the acceleration of inflation and rising interest rates, says Trading Economics.

PMI in the euro area services sector in November was 48.5 points, down 0.1 points compared with October. Preliminary data indicated that the indicator remained at the October level of 48.6 points.

Retail sales in the euro area fell 1.8 percent in October compared with the previous month, according to a report from the European Union Statistics Office (Eurostat). Analysts polled by Bloomberg expected on average a decline of 1.7 percent.

Sales of food, beverages and tobacco products in the currency bloc fell 1.5% in October compared with the previous month, with non-food products down 2.1%. Motor fuel sales increased by 0.3%.

Meanwhile, some support to the European market was provided by news about the relaxation of anti-coronavirus restrictions in several major cities in China.

The attention of market participants is gradually shifting to the last meetings of the US Federal Reserve System (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) this year, which will be held next week.

The consensus is that both the U.S. and European Central Banks will slow the pace of key interest rate hikes to 50 basis points. The Fed has raised the rate by 75 bps at the previous four meetings, while the ECB has raised the rate at two meetings.

Earlier we reported that the main European stock indices fell during the trading on December 3.

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Stats had a positive effect on the European stock market. European growth stocks

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european growth stocks

West European stock indexes closed Wednesday’s trading with a confident growth. Traders evaluated the fresh batch of statistics and bought European growth stocks.

What influenced European stocks to high growth?

GDP volume in France rose 0.2% in the third quarter compared to the previous three months, final data from the national statistics institute Insee showed. The final data coincided with a preliminary estimate. Analysts, on average, had not expected a revision, according to a Trading Economics survey. GDP growth slowed from a 0.5% rebound in the second quarter.

Consumer prices in France, harmonized with European Union standards, rose 7.1% year-over-year in November. Insee also reported. The November rate of increase in consumer prices coincided with that of October, and analysts polled by Trading Economics expected inflation to remain at the same level.

Consumer spending in the country collapsed by 2.8% in October compared with the previous month. Analysts polled by Bloomberg expected a more moderate decline of 1 percent. The consensus forecast of experts polled by Trading Economics envisioned a 0.6% decline. The decrease in consumer spending was the maximum since April 2021.

The number of unemployed in Germany increased by 17 thousand in November, according to the Federal Employment Agency of Germany. The rise in the index was marked at the end of the sixth month in a row. Experts interviewed by Bloomberg agency, on average, predicted an increase of 13.5 thousand. Respondents to Trading Economics expected an increase of 13 thousand.

Additional positives for investors in European markets on Wednesday were messages about easing of coronavirus restrictions in a lot of cities in China. Note that Amazon’s stock price is also rising if you are interested in the U.S. stock market.

Earlier, we reported that U.S. stock indices were up 2.2-4.4%.

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U.S. stock indices today rose 2.2-4.4%

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U.S. stock indices today

The U.S. stock indices today closed the trading on Wednesday with the confident growth due to the statements of the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, who confirmed that the U.S. Central Bank could slow down the basic rate rise as early as in December.

Judging by the quotations of futures on the level of the prime rate, U.S. stock market indices expect the Federal Reserve to raise it by 50 basis points (bps) in December – to 4.25-4.5%. The U.S. Central Bank has increased the rate by 75 bps at each of the previous four meetings. Against this background, the current stock price of Facebook also rose.

The report by the industry organization ADP, published on Wednesday, showed a slowdown in job growth in the U.S. private sector. Their number increased by 127,000 in November, the lowest rate since January, said the ADP. Analysts polled by The Wall Street Journal on average had forecast job growth of 190,000 after a jump of 239,000 in October.

Data from the U.S. Commerce Department, also released Nov. 30, showed higher-than-reported growth in the U.S. economy in the third quarter. U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.9% in the July-September quarter, rather than the previously reported 2.6%. Experts polled by Trading Economics had expected an average revision of 2.7%.

Also, the Federal Reserve released its regional Beige Book survey Wednesday, showing that economic activity in the United States was little changed in the fall.

Federal Reserve banks in five counties reported a weak increase in activity in October and November, while the other seven reported a stable or slightly declining economy.

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average index was up 737.24 points (2.18%) at 34589.77 as of Wednesday’s market close.

  • Standard & Poor’s 500 rose 122.48 points (3.09%) to 4,080.11 points.

  • The Nasdaq Composite added 484.22 points (4.41%) to 1,468.

All three U.S. stock market indices closed November, with the Dow Jones gaining 5.3%; the S&P 500 gaining 4.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite gaining 3.3%.

Earlier we reported that Main European stock indices were rising during trading.

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