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New Lows Likely Coming, Watch for 3500 in S&P 500 – BofA’s Suttmeier



© Reuters. New Lows Likely Coming, Watch for 3500 in S&P 500 – BofA’s Suttmeier

By Senad Karaahmetovic

Nasdaq futures are down almost 3% Monday after U.S. Treasury yields moved sharply higher, driven by rising rates and fears that aggressive rate hikes by the Fed will push the economy into recession.

An increasing number of investors are now expecting a 75 basis points hike to be announced at the long-awaited Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting later this week, instead of the initially expected 50 basis point increase.

The 2-year/10-year U.S. Treasury yield inverted for the first time in two months, with many economists viewing this as a sign of recession that could come in the following years.

Key market indexes also tumbled following the latest consumer price index (CPI) data, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq by 2.7%, 2.9%, and 3.5%, respectively.

Bank of America technical research strategist Stephen Suttmeier has weighed in on the S&P 500 technicals as futures point towards a sharp drop on Monday.

The S&P 500 futures are trading in the low 3800s with Suttmeier noting a support zone between 3858 and 3810.

“The inability to clear first resistances and the lack of bullish follow-through signals from the indicators increase the risk for lower lows toward the next supports at 3500 (50% of the March 2020-January 2022 rally and rising 200-week MA) on the SPX,” he told clients in a note.

As for NDX, the strategist sees a support zone between 10,776 and 10,589 (rising 200-week MA and 61.8% retracement of the March 2020-November 2021 rally).

Suttmeier also reminds clients that key tactical indicators failed to break out.

“The US top 15 most active advance-decline line stalled at 3123, the percentage of SPX stocks above 50-day MAs failed to breakout above 46.3-48.7% and the 3-month VIX relative to the VIX failed to clear 1.10-1.11. We viewed these as resistances to break above that would favor a continued rally in last week’s Market Comment. The failure of these indicators to breakout is a major risk and US equities have responded bearishly,” he concluded.

On the other hand, Goldman Sachs’ David Kostin sees the S&P 500 dropping all the way to 3150 in a recession.

“If by year-end consensus 2023 EPS estimates move halfway towards our top-down forecast of $239 and the P/E multiple remains constant at 17x, the implied index level would be 4165. In a recession, if the EPS estimate moves halfway to $200, a 14x P/E would bring the S&P 500 to 3150,” Kostin wrote in a note.


Stock Markets

U.S. stock market indices are down 1-2%



U.S. stock market indices

U.S. stock market indices declined yesterday on growing fears of a recession in the U.S. economy, with the S&P 500 index falling for the fourth consecutive time.

U.S. stock indices list – what’s happening right now?

Inflation will drain Americans’ financial reserves and could lead to a recession sometime in the middle of next year, according to the head of JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM). Jamie Dimon. His Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE:GS) colleague David Solomon also expects a recession in the coming months, and he believes markets are in for a turbulent period. The situation also affected T-Bond Futures.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Commerce Department said Tuesday that the country’s trade deficit widened 5.5 percent to $78.2 billion in October, the highest in four months but below analysts’ expectations of $80 billion.

Previously published positive data on business activity in the service sector and the number of new jobs in the U.S. economy have led investors to doubt that the Federal Reserve is willing to slow the pace of key interest rate increases, writes Trading Economics.

“The market got off to a nervous start this week as strong U.S. statistics hit investors’ hopes that the Fed would soften its stance in the coming months,” wrote SPI Asset Management managing partner Stephen Innes. “Ultimately, it’s more important exactly where the Fed stops, not how quickly they get to it. A stronger-than-expected labor market and positive business sentiment make it more likely that the rate will exceed 5%,” he added.

Market participants also watched for corporate news. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 350.76 points (1.03%) to 33596.34.

Earlier, we reported that European stock indicators on December 7 showed a contradictory mood.

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Stock Markets

Current European stock market shows a contradictory mood



european stock indexes today

European stock indexes today do not show unified dynamics during trades. Composite index of the largest companies in the region, Stoxx Europe 600, decreased by 0.29% to 437.66 points.

Current European stock market – current situation

Germany’s DAX stock index was down 0.25%. France’s CAC 40 was down 0.09% and Spain’s IBEX 35 was down 0.06%. The British FTSE 100 rose 0.16%, the Italian FTSE MIB – 0.13%.

Investors are increasingly concerned about the negative impact of tightening financial conditions on economic growth in the region and the profits of companies, writes Trading Economics. The situation was also reflected in the Euro Fx Futures.

Market participants are waiting for meetings of several major central banks next week and are assessing statements by representatives of the European Central Bank (ECB).

Inflation in the eurozone is close to a peak, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said the day before.

“It is too early to conclude that inflation has peaked, but I can say with confidence that we are close to peaking,” Lane told Italian newspaper Milano Finanza.

The ECB raised all three key interest rates by 75 bps in October. The benchmark interest rate on loans was raised to 2%; the rate on deposits – to 1.5%; the rate on margin loans – to 2.25%. Since July this year, the ECB has raised key rates by 200 bp.

Experts expect the lending rate to rise to at least 2% from 1.5% in December.

Meanwhile, data from Germany’s Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) released Wednesday showed that industrial production in Germany fell by 0.1% in October compared to the previous month. Analysts polled by Trading Economics had on average expected a larger decline of 0.6%.

Earlier we reported that data on a decline in Chinese exports dropped Asia’s stock market.

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Stock Markets

Asian stock market news: Data on decline in Chinese exports caused Asia’s stock market to plummet



asian stock market news

Asian stock market news: Asian stock indices fell in today’s trading after data showed a decline in Chinese exports.

China’s exports fell 8.7 percent year on year in November to $296.1 billion, official data showed. The index fell for the second month in a row (in October it dropped by 0.3%), and the rate of its decline was the highest since February 2020. Experts attribute this reduction mainly to a drop in demand in the world amid a slowdown in the global economy. Even EURODOLLAR futures were affected by the situation.

Asian stock market today – what’s happening right now?

Imports fell 10.6% year-on-year last month to $226.2 billion, after declining by 0.7% a month earlier. China’s foreign trade surplus narrowed to its lowest since April, $69.84 billion in November, down from $85.15 billion a month earlier and $71.7 billion a year earlier.

Meanwhile, investors welcomed the news of further easing of coronavirus restrictions in China. Now, entire neighborhoods and blocks will not be closed for lockdowns, as they used to be, but only residential floors and buildings. Also, people who test positive for COVID-19 will be able to self-isolate at home rather than in overcrowded hospitals. Also, schools that have not had outbreaks will have to return to the face-to-face format.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock index was down 0.7%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index was down 0.9%. Australia’s GDP rose 0.6% in Q3 from the previous quarter, according to the country’s Bureau of Statistics. Analysts on average had expected the Australian economy to grow by 0.7% in July-September, Trading Economics wrote.

The country’s GDP grew by 0.9% in the 2nd quarter. Thus, the Australian economy has shown an upturn for the fourth consecutive quarter. but the rate of increase was the weakest in that period amid weak growth in consumer spending due to high inflation and higher interest rates. On an annualized basis, GDP rose 5.9% in Q3 after climbing 3.4% in Q2 and compared to the 6.2% expected by analysts.

Earlier, we reported that European stock markets mostly closed lower on December 5.

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