Stock Markets

UBS Projects Fed Will be Forced to Cut Rates Three Times in 2023

Published

2 weeks ago

June 16, 2022

UBS Projects Fed Will be Forced to Cut Rates Three Times in 2023

By Senad Karaahmetovic

UBS economist Jonathan Pingle reflected on Fed’s future actions after the central bank hiked the benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points yesterday.

The economist expects the Fed to deliver another 75 bp rate hike in July before going for 50 basis points in September. The central bank is likely to deliver an additional 175 bp of rate hikes this year, the economist told clients in a note.

As for 2023, Pingle expects the Fed to pause and then start delivering rate cuts to tackle slowing growth.

“We foresee the FOMC taking back some of the rate increases in late 2023, reducing the funds rate to be closer to the longer-run median in late 2023. Three 25 bp rate cuts, starting at the September 2023 meeting, would leave the target range for the federal funds rate at 2.50% to 2.75% at the end of 2023. Following the last 75 bp rate hike, in 1994, the FOMC was cutting rates less than a year later,” Pingle wrote.

UBS projects the Fed will announce the slowdown of balance sheet runoff in Q4 2023 with the start expected in Q1 2024.

All in all, Pingle sees a rising risk of a hard landing.

“As the FOMC pushes nominal rates higher, the headwinds mount, fiscal support falling away, higher prices eroding real income, and higher interest rates. Engineering an increase in the unemployment rate, as the one shown in the SEP projections, is much easier said than done,” he concluded.

Stock Markets

Asian Stocks Down as Oil Rises on Tight Supply Concerns

Published

27 mins ago

June 28, 2022

letizo News

Asian Stocks Down as Oil Rises on Tight Supply Concerns

By Zhang Mengying

Investing.com – Asia Pacific stocks were mostly down on Tuesday morning after Wall Street fell and oil prices rose on tight supply concerns.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 edged up 0.16% by 10:31 PM ET (2:31 AM GMT).

South Korea’s KOSPI fell 0.30%.

In Australia, the ASX 200 rose 0.23%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was down 1.01%

China’s Shanghai Composite was down 0.49% while the Shenzhen Component was down 0.38%. To boost the recovery from COVID-19 disruption, People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang vowed to maintain the supportive monetary policy.

The SS&P 500 fell 0.30%, tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 fell 0.81%. U.S. Treasuries yield hovered around 3.19%.

Crude rose past $110 per barrel as supply remained tight over lost Russian supply amid sanctions on Russian oil exports. Adding to the supply concerns, Libya and Ecuador flagged potential output cuts on political unrest.

The Group of Seven (G7) leaders are set to discuss the means to tackle rising energy prices. They are considering a possible price cap on Russian crude and oil product exports at the same time while reducing the damage to economies.

“A seam of tight supply news bolstered the (oil) market,” Commonwealth Bank of Australia (OTC:CMWAY) analysts said in a research note.

“Political unrest might curtail supply from a couple of second-tier producers, Ecuador and Libya. And then there’s the G7’s proposed price cap on Russian oil.”

Earnings revisions are a risk with the US economy set to slow next year, though China emerging from COVID strictures could act as a buffer for the world economy, according to Bloomberg, quoting Lorraine Tan, Morningstar director of equity research.

“You got a US slowdown in 2023 in terms of growth, but you have China hopefully coming out of its lockdowns,” Tan told Bloomberg.

The European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, the Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester due to speak at the ECB event this Wednesday.

In Asia-Pacific, China’s purchasing managers index is due on Thursday.

Stock Markets

China Evergrande faces winding-up lawsuit for $110 million deal obligation

Published

2 hours ago

June 28, 2022

letizo News

China Evergrande faces winding-up lawsuit for $110 million deal obligation

(Reuters) – China Evergrande Group said on Tuesday a winding-up petition was filed against it by investment holding firm Top Shine Global Ltd in Hong Kong for not fulfilling a financial obligation of HK$862.5 million ($109.91 million).

On Monday, Reuters reported that Top Shine Global, an investor in Evergrande’s unit Fangchebao (FCB), had filed the petition saying the embattled property developer had not obliged to a deal to repurchase shares it bought in FCB.

Top Shine in March last year bought 0.46% of FCB, a Chinese online real estate and automobile marketplace, for HK$750 million.

Evergrande in an exchange filing said it will oppose the petition, adding, it would not impact its offshore debt restructuring plan in works that is slated to be announced before the end of next month.

Filed by Top Shine Global of Intershore Consult (Samoa) Ltd on Friday, it is the first known winding-up petition to have been lodged against the Chinese property developer, which has more than $300 billion in liabilities.

($1 = 7.8472 Hong Kong dollars)

Stock Markets

Heineken to expand Mexico operations with $90 million plant

Published

2 hours ago

June 28, 2022

letizo News

Heineken to expand Mexico operations with $90 million plant

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Heineken (OTC:HEINY) will build a 1.8 billion peso, or $90 million, can manufacturing plant in the northern Mexican state of Chihuahua near its brewery in the town of Mequoi, the company said on Monday.

The plant, Heineken’s seventh in the country, will bring around 120 direct jobs after opening and around 150 during the construction phase, it said in a press release.

The beermaker said it had seen increased demand for cans in the country, as other national alcoholic drink producers like Becle, Jose Cuervo’s parent company, say they are struggling to obtain glass to bottle their spirits.

Around 40% of beer in Mexico is currently made in cans, while the rest is made in glass bottles, according to the National Chamber of Beer and Malted Drinks.