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Bitcoin is close to a two-year low. What awaits it next

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Experts explain what factors put pressure on cryptocurrencies and when you can expect positive changes in the market

Since the beginning of the year, the capitalization of digital currencies has decreased by 60% — to $934 billion. The “crypto winter” collapsed the price of bitcoin by 70% of the historical maximum of $69,000.

Tokens of meta-vendors and NFT-projects, as well as currencies of DeFi-platforms were hit hardest — coins lost in price from 70% to 85% since the beginning of the year. Cryptocurrencies on exchanges fell the least: their quotes fell by 46%-57%.

Since mid-June, bitcoin rates have been fluctuating in the range of $18,000 — $22,000. Because of the falling quotes, some institutional investors and credit crypto platforms have already faced financial problems, and mining companies are forced to sell all the mined bitcoin to cover operating costs.

Is there potential for bitcoin growth in the near term, or is a true reversal in the market still to come? Experts described the current price dynamics in the cryptocurrency market and told when the turning point may occur.

Bitcoin price dynamics

The current week “pleases” traders with increased volatility. After bitcoin went below $19K on July 13, the panic was very strong.

If you look at the chart of BTC from the point of view of technical analysis, “the price is in a horizontal channel with a width of about $4000. Approximately the same channel was formed in May-June and as a result the price strongly “fell”.

Now there are already a lot of touches in the new channel as the upper and lower edges, so with a high degree of probability, the exit from the channel will occur in the next couple of weeks, the expert suggested. On July 13, the price “pushed back” from the lower boundary; that is, we can hope that the growth will continue to the upper boundary.

There is full synchronization with the index S & P 500, from its movement now directly depends on the dynamics of bitcoin and other top cryptocurrencies. A breakdown of the horizontal channel upwards will open a target to levels around $26k, while a breakdown downwards will open a target of $16k.

Influence of external factors

The most likely negative scenario, which implies the fall of the entire crypto market, and bitcoin — to $15,000 in the next month.

Cryptocurrencies are seen as a tool to hedge inflation risks. But on the other hand, digital assets now correlate strongly with the stock market, and the latter will inevitably show a decline due to high inflation in the U.S., despite all the efforts of the Fed to curb this growth.

At the next meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve will decide to raise the key rate again. This is already obvious, and in the run-up to the meeting, capital will start to exit high-risk assets.

In August, bitcoin will fall to multi-year lows, but this does not cancel the forecast for the growth of bitcoin in the perspective of 3 years. Bitcoin will return to growth in the autumn.

In the second half of 2023, a new bullish cycle will begin in anticipation of another halving. And bitcoin will update to new all-time highs within 12 months of it — between May 2024 and May 2025.

Intermediate bottom

Soon we expect mostly sideways movement with the risk of another renewal of annual lows for BTC, ETH, and some other capitalized assets.

Such dynamics are unlikely to lead to a significant drop in quotations, and the new lows will allow market participants to enter assets more profitable, the expert explained. He said he expects the prices will recover sharply after the possible decline of BTC up to $17,000 and ETH — up to $900.

Until the end of July, the crypto market will form an intermediate bottom, which will give cryptocurrencies an opportunity to strengthen within 2-3 months; Pershikov said. The current dynamics will remain until the end of the month, while growth in individual assets and the market will begin in August. 

Cryptocurrency

BTC Crash Impending? Jim Cramer Calls Bitcoin a ‘Winner’

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The crypto community mourns on X as the 2024 bull market seems to be over. No, this is not a drill, Jim Cramer said on national TV that bitcoin is a winner and he advised people to own BTC.

If this isn’t a clear bear signal, we don’t know what is.

Bitcoin Is a ‘Winner’

The host of CNBC’s Mad Money has frequently outlined somewhat controversial viewpoints and advice in his show. His success rate, at least when it comes down to crypto, has been… mixed. Actually, he has changed his mind more times than ‘a girl changes clothes,’ as Katy Perry would say.

We will not go down the long road of his pro- and anti-bitcoin and crypto statements, but all we are going to say is that there is an inverse Cramer account and trading strategy on X, and even Elon Musk has previously mocked him. Oh, just for reference – he said a few weeks ago that the market was anticipating a win for Kamala Harris in the 24 US presidential elections.

During a show from the past business week, Cramer praised MicroStrategy’s bitcoin strategy, which has brought impressive benefits for the company since embracing BTC as a reserve asset in August 2020. Its stock price, despite the recent correction, has skyrocketed and MSTR sometimes has bigger trading volumes than the likes of Apple and Amazon.

After highlighting MSTR, Cramer said, “All I can tell you is own Bitcoin, that’s a winner.” In the future, people will go back to this moment to point out where everything went wrong for crypto.

Bear Market Starts?

Given his historical flops when trying to determine a market top or bottom, the crypto community was quick to highlight his praising words for BTC as the beginning of the end. Many analysts and commentators warned investors that this is a proper sell signal and they should run for their lives.

It’s probably not that surprising now that the asset failed to breach $100,000 yesterday. It all makes sense now.

Joking aside, BTC indeed came around $200 away from tapping that level but was stopped and pushed south slightly. If this spectacular rally is indeed over now, all fingers will point to Cramer’s words.

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Did a Shanghai Court Just Legalize Bitcoin in China?

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Bitcoin has been very popular in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, and Latin America. The cryptocurrency has also enjoyed great success in neighboring South Korea and Japan.

Cryptocurrency policy in China has been varied—from allowing citizens and residents of mainland China to own crypto, to banning the asset class in 2021. It would seem a court ruling in the Municipality of Shanghai has recently opened the door for Chinese citizens to own cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.

Court In China Legalizes Crypto Ownership

Judge Sun Jie of the Shanghai Songjiang People’s Court set forth some new jurisprudence on cryptocurrency this week. The South China Morning Post reported Thursday that the court handed down a decision clarifying the legality of cryptocurrency under Chinese federal law.

The Shanghai judge wrote that it is “not illegal for individuals to hold cryptocurrency” in China. Moreover, the decision categorized the asset class as a form of property.

Sun clarified that China’s strict regulations on disorderly behavior in cryptocurrency markets does not impose a total ban on ownership. In fact, these regulations only make sense if it is legal to own crypto in the country.

“That is why laws and regulations always maintain a high-pressure crackdown on speculative activities in cryptocurrency trading,” Sun wrote.

How to classify cryptocurrencies has plagued government financial regulators the world over since Bitcoin’s 2009 debut. Crypto tokens are classified as property in the U.S. by the Internal Revenue Service, which collects federal income taxes.

Chinese Rush Into Bitcoin in 2024

The ruling could signify the beginning of a more tolerant cryptocurrency policy in China moving forward. Despite what many consider a crypto ban in the country, miners there make up over 50% of the Bitcoin network’s hash power.

Meanwhile, Chinese Bitcoin investors with a little technical know-how have been working around the law. Despite its dubious legal status, a few Chinese Internet users have fled a five-year stock winter for cryptocurrency.

The average Bitcoin price on crypto exchanges consolidated above the $98,300 handle by 6:00 AM Saturday morning in Beijing, China.

With volume steadily building as the price increased over the day and week, the world’s first cryptocurrency has a real pressure cooker of a market going here. Many analysts expect an increase to a new $100,000 ATH any day now.

Financial advisory firm deVere Group’s CEO Nigel Green said in an article that appeared in the Independent Friday, “The $100,000 milestone, which once seemed bold, now looks conservative. I believe bitcoin could reach $120,000 in the first quarter of 2025 as the rally gains further traction.”

Polymarket, Ethereum’s largest betting market, gave BTCUSD a 93% chance Thursday of reaching $100,000 in 2024 with $6.8 million in betting volume.

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Casa CEO Exposes Shocking Phishing Scam Targeting Wealthy Crypto Users

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Nick Neuman, the CEO of Bitcoin storage solutions provider Casa, recently shared an encounter with a phishing scammer impersonating Coinbase support to steal from high-value cryptocurrency holders.

In a November 20 post on X, Neuman described how he played along during a call to uncover the depth of the scheme.

Preying on Wealthy Crypto Holders

The recorded conversation started as a seemingly ordinary phone call with the con artist posing as a Coinbase support agent. He informed Neuman of a “canceled password change request” and directed him to click on a suspicious email link.

However, when the Casa co-founder revealed his identity and started questioning the scammer, he dropped the act. But instead of ending the call, the grifter openly shared the inner workings of their criminal operation.

“We hit like $35,000 two days ago,” the impersonator gloated, describing how their scheme exclusively targets individuals with crypto holdings worth at least $50,000. “We don’t call poor people,” he bragged.

According to him, their victims are often well-heeled and highly educated professionals, including software engineers and corporate executives in the crypto space.

“We actually got a dude who was a Chinese software engineer,” said the swindler. “You’d think a software engineer wouldn’t fall for this,” he added, claiming they stole $40,000 from that individual.

Further, he explained that they don’t rely on luck but consistency, putting in calls daily and getting hits four or five times a week, each netting five figures at a minimum.

How the Scheme Works

The fraudster detailed how the scams generally work, describing the range of sophisticated and fear-driven methods they use to deceive potential victims.

For instance, they might claim a password change request was canceled, like they did with Neuman. They would then convince their target to click a malicious link embedded in a fake notification they would send, ostensibly to resolve the password issue.

If a person were unfortunate enough to fall for the trick, the phishing pages would capture their sensitive data, including private keys, which the conmen then used to create new wallets and siphon funds.

To improve their odds, they supposedly employ auto-doxxing tools, spoofed emails resembling official Coinbase communication, and even leaked data from platforms like Unchained Capital to identify potential victims.

These tools allow them to target individuals precisely, often convincing them to send funds directly to wallets under the criminals’ control. Upon receiving the money, the swindlers use privacy-focused tools like Tornado Cash and Monero (XMR) to cover their tracks.

Neuman’s interaction with the trickster also sheds light on their motivation and audacity. The scammer boasted about being only a few thousand dollars shy of a $100,000 target he intended to reach within 30 days, with less than five days left until his self-imposed deadline.

It also showed the importance of crypto holders being extremely vigilant in their interactions as cases increase. Phishing ploys like these exploit trust and fear to deceive even seasoned professionals. As the scammer noted, “For some reason, people trust people over the phone.”

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