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How is the Australian dollar doing today?

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How is the Australian dollar doing today? The Australian dollar, thanks to its counterpart from the U.S., rose. However, the trend of weakening will continue, experts believe.

The Australian dollar and the yield on the issuing country’s government bonds fell after the consumer price index came in slightly below expectations. The rate of Australia’s national currency is under the strong influence of the U.S. dollar and the negative impact of a weakened coronavirus in China – the main economic neighbor of the island-mainland.

However, analysts at the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) said in their latest research report that Australia’s second-quarter inflation data does not change their view on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raising its rate by 50 bps in August.

Where is the Australian dollar going: some dollars are crying too

The Australian dollar has suffered markedly this year due to a slowdown in business activity. Businesses and companies have managed to save jobs, but otherwise the situation looks difficult. This is due to the spring Chinese lockdown – China, despite all the controversy, remains a key trade and economic partner of Australia – and the global recession. 

Why is the australian dollar so bad? The Reserve Bank of Australia is following the global trend to raise rates, protects the financial system and generally looks progressive compared to global central banks. The risks include export declines, high energy prices, and U.S. dollar pressure. 

Regarding technical analysis on the daily chart, the AUD/USD reached the corrective growth target of 0.7000 and can go down to 0.6900 to cool down. Mid-term the tool remains under pressure and can return to 0.6675, if the external background worsens and the pressure on the American currency increases. 

The participants of the currency market call the Australian dollar a “kangaroo”. Only on July 27, the currency strongly “jumped” against the American dollar from 0.6900 to above 0.7000 – by almost 1.5%. It is still at that level in the morning of Thursday. 

The main reason is the U.S. dollar. It dropped from 107.3 points to 106 points on the USDX index against the major currencies. This is a reaction to the outcome of the main event of the month for the markets – the US Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. The regulator predictably raised its interest rate from 1.75% to 2.5%. The increase to such a level was the most probable and was put in prices in advance. 

Therefore, a coincidence with expectations led not to growth, but to a weakening of the dollar. The assumption of the relative caution of the Fed, which will not raise the rate to the discussed 2.75%, already from mid-July, weakened the dollar. The AUD/USD has been rising since July 14 from 0.6680. 

Will its growth stop? During the day on Thursday the currency may be affected by important new statistics – the data on U.S. GDP for the second quarter. It is assumed that it has risen by 0.5% after a decrease of 1.6% in the previous period. Data better or worse than that forecast will weaken or strengthen the “kangaroo” along with other currencies, respectively. During the day the most probable range of AUD/USD movement is 0.6960 – 0.7020. 

The Producer Price Index data may have a certain influence on the AUD on Friday. The indicator may be perceived positively for the quotation of this currency.

The U.S. dollar has higher chances of strengthening in the medium term until the end of the year. After all, the Fed has declared a further increase in interest rates and the sale of previously purchased bonds. The strengthening of AUD/USD in recent weeks is just a correction to the main downtrend, which was formed in February 2021. Its continuation may lead the pair to levels of 0.6500-0.6600 at the end of the year. Against this background, we can also analyze how the australian dollar is doing about inflation. 

It is worth noting that due to the tense situation around the world, the entire world economy and stock markets are suffering. Let’s take the Facebook stock chart as an example. A combination of both external and internal factors put Meta in not the most enviable position. Once one of the most expensive companies in the world, it lost nearly $800 billion in market capitalization in less than a year. The social network Facebook has existed since 2004 and in the IV quarter of 2021, the social network for the first time in history was faced with a decrease in the daily active audience – it became less than about 500 million people. In September 2022, Meta announced its first-ever downsizing.


US dollar gains but set for worst monthly loss in a year, euro falls

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US dollar gains but set for worst monthly loss in a year, euro falls
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A New Zealand dollar coin sits atop a United States one dollar bill in this photo illustration taken on March 11, 2016. REUTERS/David Gray/Illustration/File Photo

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

NEW YORK (Reuters) -The dollar gained on Thursday as investors took profits on bets the currency would weaken further and shrugged off data showing signs the U.S. economy is slowing.

Thursday’s economic data suggested that the Federal Reserve is likely done raising interest rates and may start easing by the middle of next year, typically a dollar-negative factor.

Euro weakness after a soft euro zone inflation report also partly helped boost the greenback, analysts said.

The , which measures its value against six major currencies, rose 0.6% to 103.38 and was on track to post its best daily gain in more than a month. On a monthly basis, the dollar has posted a 3% loss, on pace for its worst monthly showing in a year.

Some analysts said the dollar may have benefited from month-end demand, as investors squared up positions for November, a period that featured a sharp sell-off in the U.S. currency with the market pricing in rate cuts next year.

Others, however, expected a dollar sell-off at month-end with stocks’ sharp gains for November. There were sell dollar signals at some of the biggest U.S. banks, analysts said.

“We were expecting dollar selling at month-end given how much U.S. equities rallied. That typically means foreign asset managers would have sold dollars forward,” said Vassili Serebriakov, FX strategist, at UBS in New York.

“But it’s possible that some of the selling happened earlier in the month. So maybe there’s less dollar selling at month end.”

Dollar gains persisted despite reports that showed U.S. inflation continued to moderate in October and jobless claims rose in the latest week suggesting a slowing labor market.

Inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index was unchanged in October after climbing 0.4% in September. In the 12 months through October, the PCE price index increased 3.0%. That was the smallest year-on-year gain since March 2021 and followed a 3.4% advance in September.

Meanwhile, initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 7,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 218,000 for the week ended Nov. 25. Economists had forecast 226,000 claims.

In other currencies, the euro fell after euro zone inflation eased by more than forecast this month, fuelling bets of early European Central Bank rate cuts.

Consumer price growth in the 20 countries that share the euro currency dropped to 2.4% in November from 2.9% in October, well below expectations for a fall to 2.7%.

The euro last changed hands at $1.0889 against the dollar, down 0.7%. It is still poised to show a monthly gain of 3%, the largest since November 2022.

Against the yen, the dollar rose 0.7% to 148.20 yen. For November, the greenback was down 2.3%, on pace for its largest monthly fall since December last year.

“The broader picture is that the dollar has weakened quite substantially in November. It’s still probably a two-way risk from here in terms of the Fed December meeting,” Serebriakov of UBS said.

“The U.S. data hasn’t slowed significantly. Inflation has but activity data remains relatively resilient,” he added.

U.S. rate futures have priced in about a 47% chance of a rate cut at the March 19-20, 2024 meeting, rising to about 78% probability at the April 30-May 1 meeting, the CME FedWatch Tool showed on Thursday. Overall, the rates market sees roughly 100 basis points (bps) of cuts by the end of 2024, according to LSEG data.


Currency bid prices at 4:30PM (2130 GMT)

Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid

Previous Change


Dollar index 103.4800 102.8200 +0.66% -0.010% +103.5900 +102.7100

Euro/Dollar $1.0887 $1.0969 -0.75% +1.61% +$1.0984 +$1.0879

Dollar/Yen 148.1800 147.2400 +0.64% +13.02% +148.5000 +146.8500

Euro/Yen 161.34 161.51 -0.11% +15.00% +161.9400 +160.6000

Dollar/Swiss 0.8753 0.8737 +0.19% -5.33% +0.8770 +0.8681

Sterling/Dollar $1.2625 $1.2695 -0.55% +4.40% +$1.2710 +$1.2604

Dollar/Canadian 1.3564 1.3589 -0.18% +0.11% +1.3626 +1.3553

Aussie/Dollar $0.6607 $0.6617 -0.14% -3.07% +$0.6650 +$0.6571

Euro/Swiss 0.9529 0.9585 -0.58% -3.70% +0.9590 +0.9474

Euro/Sterling 0.8621 0.8640 -0.22% -2.52% +0.8649 +0.8615

NZ $0.6155 $0.6156 +0.00% -3.05% +$0.6182 +$0.6123


Dollar/Norway 10.8050 10.6310 +1.84% +10.32% +10.8240 +10.6690

Euro/Norway 11.7625 11.6879 +0.64% +12.09% +11.7848 +11.6717

Dollar/Sweden 10.4919 10.3624 +0.59% +0.81% +10.5397 +10.3450

Euro/Sweden 11.4228 11.3560 +0.59% +2.45% +11.4840 +11.3576

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Dollar recovers from three-month lows; PCE data looms large

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Dollar recovers from three-month lows; PCE data looms large
© Reuters. – The U.S. dollar edged higher in early European trade Thursday, but remained near a three-month low ahead of a key reading of U.S. inflation later in the session.

At 04:50 ET (09:50 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.4% higher to 103.120, just above the 102.46 level it hit on Wednesday, its lowest since Aug. 10.

Core PCE seen lowest since 2021

The dollar has received something of a boost after data showed the grew faster in the third quarter than initially reported. 

However, it’s still down 3.2% in November, its worst month in a year, on growing expectations the Fed will cut interest rates in the first half of 2024.

These expectations were boosted earlier this week after Fed Governor , widely seen as a hawkish voice at the central bank, flagged the possibility of a rate cut in the months ahead, if the recent decline in inflation continues.

With this in mind, traders await the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index, later Thursday.

The , which strips out food and fuel costs and is considered a better gauge of underlying inflation, is expected to have risen 3.5% on a year-over-year basis, a drop from 3.7% the prior month, and the lowest since mid-2021. 

Euro weakens ahead of eurozone inflation

In Europe, fell 0.4% to 1.0924, with the euro retreating ahead of the release of the latest eurozone inflation data.

The November release is expected to fall to 2.7% on an annual basis, from 2.9% the prior month. However, data released on Wednesday showed that German inflation eased to 2.3% in November, significantly more than the 2.6% expected.

The euro was also hit by the news that the contracted by 0.1% in the third quarter of the year, weaker than the 0.1% growth expected.

fell 0.2% to 1.2671, retreating further from the three-month top of 1.2733 seen earlier in the week.

Yen continues sharp recovery

In Asia, traded marginally lower to 147.18, with the yen receiving little support from data that showed grew less than expected in October, while remained muted. 

Still, the yen marked a sharp recovery from near 33-year lows in November, and was set to rise 3% in the month, its best monthly gain since November 2022, when the government had intervened in currency markets. 

edged lower to 7.1295, after a stronger midpoint fix from the People’s Bank of China. But gains were limited after data showed a sustained decline in Chinese manufacturing activity.


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Dollar retreats after PCE data points to cooling inflation; Powell set to speak

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Dollar retreats after PCE data points to cooling inflation; Powell set to speak
© Reuters – The U.S. dollar retreated in early European trade Friday, as a key inflation release added to expectations that U.S. interest rates have peaked.

At 04:40 ET (09:40 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% lower to 103.212, after clocking its weakest monthly performance in a year in November.

Dollar falls after PCE release

The eagerly awaited rose 3% in October from a year ago, according to data released on Thursday, falling from 3.4% the previous month.

This index is widely seen as the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation, and although the reading was still above the Fed’s 2% target, the trajectory is clearly lower.

The main economic release Friday is the , while traders will also pay close attention to comments from Fed Chair later in the session, looking for clues of the central bank’s rate outlook.

“The FX market is set to remain highly sensitive to any activity data point, but there is a sense dollar bulls have survived the consumer spending and PCE risk, so that today’s ISM figures may not have a big impact – barring any big surprises,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

Euro helped by manufacturing PMI data

In Europe, rose 0.1% to 1.0897, with the euro edging higher after steep overnight losses, helped by data showing the broad-based downturn in eurozone manufacturing activity eased slightly last month, while remaining firmly in contraction territory..

HCOB’s final rose to 44.2 in November from October’s 43.1, above a preliminary estimate of 43.8. 

Importantly, the downturn in Germany’s dominant manufacturing sector eased in November, increasing for the fourth month in a row.

rose 0.3% to 1.2666, heading back towards the recent three-month top of 1.2733, after data from Nationwide indicated that rose unexpectedly in monthly terms for the third time running in November.

House prices rose by 0.2% on the month in November, after a 0.9% increase in October. Compared with a year ago, house prices were 2% lower – the smallest such drop in nine months.

Yen set for another weekly gain

In Asia, traded 0.3% lower to 147.74, on course for its third straight week of gains against the dollar, pulling it away from the three-decade low of 151.92 it touched in the middle of November.

edged higher to 7.1376, after a private survey showed that rebounded unexpectedly in November. But the reading contrasted with official data released on Thursday, which showed a sustained contraction in the .


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