How is the Australian dollar doing today?
How is the Australian dollar doing today? The Australian dollar, thanks to its counterpart from the U.S., rose. However, the trend of weakening will continue, experts believe.
The Australian dollar and the yield on the issuing country’s government bonds fell after the consumer price index came in slightly below expectations. The rate of Australia’s national currency is under the strong influence of the U.S. dollar and the negative impact of a weakened coronavirus in China – the main economic neighbor of the island-mainland.
However, analysts at the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) said in their latest research report that Australia’s second-quarter inflation data does not change their view on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raising its rate by 50 bps in August.
Where is the Australian dollar going: some dollars are crying too
The Australian dollar has suffered markedly this year due to a slowdown in business activity. Businesses and companies have managed to save jobs, but otherwise the situation looks difficult. This is due to the spring Chinese lockdown – China, despite all the controversy, remains a key trade and economic partner of Australia – and the global recession.
Why is the australian dollar so bad? The Reserve Bank of Australia is following the global trend to raise rates, protects the financial system and generally looks progressive compared to global central banks. The risks include export declines, high energy prices, and U.S. dollar pressure.
Regarding technical analysis on the daily chart, the AUD/USD reached the corrective growth target of 0.7000 and can go down to 0.6900 to cool down. Mid-term the tool remains under pressure and can return to 0.6675, if the external background worsens and the pressure on the American currency increases.
The participants of the currency market call the Australian dollar a “kangaroo”. Only on July 27, the currency strongly “jumped” against the American dollar from 0.6900 to above 0.7000 – by almost 1.5%. It is still at that level in the morning of Thursday.
The main reason is the U.S. dollar. It dropped from 107.3 points to 106 points on the USDX index against the major currencies. This is a reaction to the outcome of the main event of the month for the markets – the US Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. The regulator predictably raised its interest rate from 1.75% to 2.5%. The increase to such a level was the most probable and was put in prices in advance.
Therefore, a coincidence with expectations led not to growth, but to a weakening of the dollar. The assumption of the relative caution of the Fed, which will not raise the rate to the discussed 2.75%, already from mid-July, weakened the dollar. The AUD/USD has been rising since July 14 from 0.6680.
Will its growth stop? During the day on Thursday the currency may be affected by important new statistics – the data on U.S. GDP for the second quarter. It is assumed that it has risen by 0.5% after a decrease of 1.6% in the previous period. Data better or worse than that forecast will weaken or strengthen the “kangaroo” along with other currencies, respectively. During the day the most probable range of AUD/USD movement is 0.6960 – 0.7020.
The Producer Price Index data may have a certain influence on the AUD on Friday. The indicator may be perceived positively for the quotation of this currency.
The U.S. dollar has higher chances of strengthening in the medium term until the end of the year. After all, the Fed has declared a further increase in interest rates and the sale of previously purchased bonds. The strengthening of AUD/USD in recent weeks is just a correction to the main downtrend, which was formed in February 2021. Its continuation may lead the pair to levels of 0.6500-0.6600 at the end of the year. Against this background, we can also analyze how the australian dollar is doing about inflation.
It is worth noting that due to the tense situation around the world, the entire world economy and stock markets are suffering. Let’s take the Facebook stock chart as an example. A combination of both external and internal factors put Meta in not the most enviable position. Once one of the most expensive companies in the world, it lost nearly $800 billion in market capitalization in less than a year. The social network Facebook has existed since 2004 and in the IV quarter of 2021, the social network for the first time in history was faced with a decrease in the daily active audience – it became less than about 500 million people. In September 2022, Meta announced its first-ever downsizing.
Saudi Arabia, Some OPEC Members Clash Over Oil-Production Quotas
Saudi Arabia and some OPEC members clashed over who would produce how much oil ahead of a contentious group meeting on Sunday, people familiar with the matter said, in a sign of growing tensions within the cartel amid concerns over weakening global energy demand.
Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, demanded smaller African producers cut their quotas, according to the people. At the same time, the kingdom was in talks with the United Arab Emirates, another powerful member of the group, to allow it to produce more, they added.
Saudi Oil Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman called some of the African delegates to his hotel suite in Vienna on Saturday and told them that their production quotas within the group would be reduced, the people said. They walked out of the meeting without a deal, the people added. African countries such as Nigeria and Angola have often struggled to even meet their current production targets for various reasons, including pandemic shutdowns that proved hard to reverse and years of underinvestment.
Representatives for the energy ministries of Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E., Nigeria, Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon and the Republic of Congo didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.
A production cut of up to 1 million barrels a day is on the table as OPEC and its Russia-led allies, known as OPEC+, meet this weekend in Vienna to decide on a production plan, delegates said. The broader 23-member group accounts for more than half the world’s oil production. The delegates said a cut in production is expected to prop up crude prices amid concerns that a slowing global economy would crimp energy demand. Still, most members don’t want to give up their allotted production quotas as that affects their overall revenues.
If approved, Sunday’s output cut would be the third by members of OPEC+ since October, when they slashed output by 2 million barrels a day. In April, some of the group’s largest members, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, cut a further 1.6 million barrels a day. The decision to cut had drawn rebuke from the U.S., which at the time had requested Saudi Arabia and OPEC to increase production to help tame inflation. It led to U.S. accusations that Riyadh was siding with Moscow in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, is down more than 20% since OPEC and its allies first jolted the market with output cuts in October. Another output cut on Sunday isn’t expected to evoke any major reaction from Washington as most analysts expect that oil prices will continue to trend low.
Moneycontrol Selects: Top stories this evening
In the two-day offer for sale (OFS), the government sold its 18.48 crore shares or 3 percent stake in Coal India at a floor price of Rs 225 apiece. At the floor price, the stake sale would fetch about Rs 4,158 crore to the exchequer. Read more here.
Rahul Yadav haggled with Info Edge to raise funds for Broker Network at 99% discount to last valuation
Broker Network founder Rahul Yadav tried to deplete Info Edge’s shareholding in the company by offering to bring in Rs 50 crore of fresh funds from a Dubai-based property dealer in March-April at a valuation that was 99 percent lower than its last funding round, Moneycontrol has learned from sources close to the company and its top-level employees. Read more here.
Coal India OFS has done well; stock market situation stable: DIPAM Secretary
The government’s offer for sale (OFS) to sell up to a 3 percent stake in Coal India (CIL) has done well, said DIPAM Secretary Tuhin Kanta Pandey on June 2 amid an overwhelming response from institutional and retail investors. With this, the government is expected to get more than Rs 4,000 crore. Read more here.
Electric two-wheeler sales cross 1 lakh mark in May as subsidy cut sparks buying rush
The domestic electric two-wheeler (E2W) industry saw monthly sales cross the one lakh mark for the first time in May as the announcement of a subsidy cut on such vehicle purchases sparked a last-minute buying rush. Read more here.
RBI releases draft rules on cyber resilience, digital payment security controls for PSOs
The draft directions from the RBI cover governance mechanism for identification, assessment, monitoring and management of cybersecurity risks including information security risks and vulnerabilities, and specify baseline security measures for ensuring safe and secure digital payment transactions. Read more here.
Fearing Sebi action, finfluencers now ‘renting’ analyst licences for a fee
Finfluencers are now ‘renting out’ research analysts’ (RA’s) licences for a fee, insiders told Moneycontrol. The ‘rent’ is around 20 percent of the fee they earn by providing stock tips and trading calls. Finfluencers Moneycontrol spoke to said that they are settling for this because many of their applications are being rejected for various reasons, including lack of credibility, and also because RA regulations are highly restrictive. Read more here.
Bengaluru firm cheats 2,000 students of Rs 18 crore, CEO arrested Police officials said that the CEO, who was identified as Sreenivas of “Geeklurn” had been taken into custody. They are yet to arrest other key members of the management- Chief financial officer Raman P C and Operations head Aman.
Gold slips as yields gain after US payrolls rise
Gold slipped on Friday as hotter-than-expected U.S. jobs data lifted Treasury yields, but was on track for a weekly gain as a higher unemployment reading kept alive hopes that the Federal Reserve would pause interest rate hikes.
Spot gold GOLD was down 1.4% at $1,951.13 per ounce by 14:17 EDT (1817 GMT), after hitting a seven-session high earlier. U.S. gold futures GOLD settled 1.3% higher at $1,969.6.
Bullion has gained 0.2% so far this week, and is set to break a three-week losing streak.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls grew by 339,000 in May, beating expectations for an increase of 190,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 3.7% from a 53-year low of 3.4% in April.
Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose, and the dollar ticked up, making the greenback-priced, zero-interest-bearing bullion less attractive.
“The fact that the data is a little mixed is going to cancel itself out where the Fed most likely will look through that data and follow through with whatever they were planning on doing, which right now seems to be a pause,” said Everett Millman, chief market analyst at Gainesville Coins.
Traders priced in a 70% chance that Fed policymakers will leave rates unchanged later this month.
Philadelphia Fed chief Patrick Harker said on Thursday U.S. central bankers should not raise interest rates at their next meeting. Higher rates increase the opportunity cost of holding bullion.
“This optimism around interest rates has offset any potential losses for gold now that the U.S. has reached agreement on its debt ceiling and avoided defaulting,” Kinesis Money analyst Rupert Rowling wrote in a note.
The U.S. The Senate on Thursday passed bipartisan legislation backed by President Joe Biden to lift the country’s debt ceiling.
Spot silver also set to gain for the week, fell 1.2% to $23.62 per ounce. Platinum PL1! fell 0.7% to $999.15 and palladium advanced 0.8% to $1,405.90, both set for weekly losses.
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