The Nasdaq chart today, which reflects the value of stocks of U.S. technology companies, rose 20% from its June low. Over the past trading week, the Nasdaq showed an increase of 3.2%. Analysts believe that this rally is happening on very shaky ground. 

Some even claim that investors are “stupid”. Much of the growth came on the back of falling oil prices. The drop in Brent to nearly $90 was a signal of declining demand in the economy. 

Shrinking consumption should translate into slower inflation, allowing the Fed to tighten its policy at a slower pace. However, the cooling of oil prices on Friday was offset by strong labor market data. Unemployment in the U.S. fell to 3.5%. Still, the best Nasdaq stocks showed gains. 

Fed officials often refer to a robust labor market in their rhetoric as an indication of a rate hike. Last week’s macroeconomic indicators suggest that the regulator remains free to act. Forecasts do not look rosy either. 

Average earnings estimates for the S&P 500 for 2023 are down 2.7% since the end of the first-quarter earnings season. The reason: lower expectations for growth in securities. Analysts’ estimates set the stage for a longer market recovery cycle. Inflation and the “era of expensive money” continue to hold back production.