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Avoiding the US recession – a “treacherous” scenario for the market?

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US recession

If the economy does avoid the US recession, the consequences could be dangerous for the stock market, according to TS Lombard analysts, writes Business Insider.

That’s because the Fed is likely to keep interest rates high in a “no landing” scenario, which would put pressure on stocks. Fed officials already raised interest rates last year to control inflation, which caused the S&P 500 to fall 20%.

Can the U.S. avoid a recession?

According to the research firm, investors could face big losses if the economy runs without a hard or soft landing, meaning that it will avoid a slowdown and recession and instead continue to remain strong.

This is because the Fed is likely to keep interest rates high, while other central banks traditionally cut rates by at least 200 basis points when faced with a recession.

While most analysts have predicted that the interest rate will reach 5% this year, it could rise to 6.5% if the U.S. avoids a recession.

This is far from an innocuous scenario, as the market conditions that prevailed for most of 2022 would return. The market would try to keep up with ever-increasing rate expectations, which would likely lead to a prolonged downgrade of stocks.

The market has lost some of its gains since the beginning of the year as investors look for further rate hikes, with the rate itself also staying high for longer.

Earlier, we reported that Wall Street rose as Treasury yields fell.

Stock Markets

Quarterhill Announces Sponsorship and Participation at IBTTA Technology Summit

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  • Quarterhill (OTC:) will showcase its advanced roadside and back-office tolling solutions at this year’s technology summit.
  • This marks the first time that leading toll technology provider Electronic Transaction Consultants, LLC (ETC) will participate as part of  Quarterhill’s unified brand.

TORONTO, May 5, 2024 /PRNewswire/ – Quarterhill Inc. (“Quarterhill” or the “Company”) (TSX: QTRH) (OTCQX: QTRHF), a leading provider of tolling and enforcement solutions in the Intelligent Transportation System (“ITS”) industry, is proud to announce its participation as a Platinum sponsor at the International Bridge, Tunnel and Turnpike Association (“IBTTA”) Technology Summit from May 4 to 7, 2024, in Atlanta, Georgia. Quarterhill is showcasing its groundbreaking solutions at booth 203.

Quarterhill’s appearance at the IBTTA Technology Summit signifies an important evolution towards a unified brand identity, highlighting the integration of Electronic Transaction Consultants, LLC (“ETC”) into its portfolio. This strategic consolidation under the Quarterhill brand enhances the Company’s capability to deliver comprehensive, integrated ITS solutions, combining expertise in tolling, enforcement, and vehicle classification technologies. This move not only streamlines Quarterhill’s offerings but also reinforces its commitment to leading innovation in the ITS industry, providing superior value to its clients and stakeholders.

Joining the excitement, Red Fox ID Limited (“Red Fox”)”a company at the forefront of above-ground vehicle classification technology and the latest addition to the Quarterhill family”is also exhibiting at the Technology Summit in booths 101/103. Red Fox is known for its cutting-edge Automatic Vehicle Detection and Classification (“AVDC”) technology, essential for modern road user charging applications.

Visitors to the IBTTA Technology Summit can experience the future of tolling and AVDC technology by meeting with the experts from Quarterhill and Red Fox at their respective booths. The summit serves as a perfect platform for demonstrating how the integration of ETC and Red Fox into Quarterhill will enhance the company’s road pricing solutions.

About  Quarterhill

Quarterhill is a leading provider of tolling and enforcement solutions in the Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) industry. Our goal is technology-driven global leadership in ITS, via organic growth of our tolling and enforcement businesses, and by continuing an acquisition-oriented investment strategy that capitalizes on attractive growth opportunities within ITS and its adjacent markets. Quarterhill is listed on the TSX under the symbol QTRH and on the OTCQX Best Market under the symbol QTRHF. For more information: www.quarterhill.com.

Forward-looking Information

This news release contains forward-looking information and forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities laws (collectively, “forward-looking statements”). Such forward-looking statements relate to future events, conditions or future financial performance of ŽQuarterhill based on future economic conditions and courses of action. All statements other Žthan statements of historical fact may be forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements Žare often, but not always, identified by the use of any words such as “seek”, “anticipate”, “budget”, ŽŽ”plan”, “goal”, “expect” and similar expressions.

Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, assumptions, Žuncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those Žanticipated in such forward-looking statements. Material risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements contained in this news release include, among others, demand for Quarterhill’s products and services; general economic and market conditions; competition; risks relating to technological advances and cyber-security; and other risks set forth in the Company’s most recent annual information form available on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca. The Company believes the expectations reflected in Žthe forward-looking statements are reasonable, but no assurance can be given that these expectations Žwill prove to be correct and such forward-looking statements included in this news release should not be Žunduly relied upon.Ž Material factors and assumptions used to develop the forward-looking statements contained in this news release include, among others: Quarterhill’s ability to execute on its business plan; demand for Quarterhill’s products and services; operating assumptions; and financial projections and cost estimates. Quarterhill has no intention, and undertakes no obligation, to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.

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Pro Research: Wall Street eyes Instacart’s market trajectory

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In the rapidly evolving online grocery sector, Instacart (NASDAQ:), operating under the ticker EXCHANGE:CART, has garnered significant attention from Wall Street analysts. These industry experts have been closely monitoring the company’s performance, market trends, and potential impacts of external factors to provide a comprehensive outlook for potential investors.

Company Overview

Instacart has positioned itself as a digital-first leader in the online grocery delivery and pickup service, connecting customers with a variety of retailers. With a focus on deep integration with merchants, optimized delivery logistics, and a mature advertising product, the company has established a significant presence in the United States and Canada. Instacart’s platform supports both grocery and non-grocery items and has been recognized for its early leadership in the massive grocery Total Addressable Market (TAM).

Market Performance and Strategy

Analysts have noted that Instacart’s Gross Transaction Value (GTV) and revenue have consistently beaten consensus estimates, with EBITDA margins showing significant year-over-year improvements. This reflects the company’s disciplined cost management and profitability enhancements. Instacart’s advertising take rates have grown year-over-year, benefiting from robust consumer packaged goods (CPG) ad spending and the launch of new ad formats in the second half of 2022.

The company’s share buyback program, valued at $500 million, signals confidence in its financial health and cash generation capabilities. With $2.2 billion in cash on hand, Instacart is poised for continued GTV growth into 2024, with the potential for acceleration beyond current levels.

Competitive Landscape

Instacart is navigating a competitive landscape with pressures from companies like DoorDash (NASDAQ:) and Uber (NYSE:). Analysts have highlighted the importance of tangible re-acceleration in top-line growth to become more bullish on the company. Long-term growth opportunities include deepening retailer relationships and investing in audience growth.

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Despite the competitive environment, Instacart’s leadership position in digital grocery is reinforced by accelerating GTV and order growth, along with expanding take rates. The company’s business model is considered defensible, and consistent results are expected to contribute to share price appreciation.

Regulatory and Macro Environment

The regulatory scrutiny on gig worker status and changes in consumer behavior post-COVID are among the risks that Instacart faces. The company must also navigate the intense competition within the Marketplace and Retail Media markets and the potential failure to scale the advertising business or expand internationally.

Financial Outlook

Instacart’s financial performance has been robust, with Q3 2023 earnings surpassing expectations. The company reported a total GTV of $7.49 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $163 million for the quarter. Revenue was driven by transaction revenue and advertising & other revenue, with guidance for Q4 2023 indicating GTV growth of +5-6% year-over-year and adjusted EBITDA between $165-175 million.

Wolfe Research maintains an Outperform rating on Instacart (CART) with a raised price target of $39, up from the previous $35. The firm’s analysis suggests multiple paths for GTV acceleration in FY24, with a base case of +7% GTV growth. Adjusted EBITDA projections for FY24 are estimated at $730 million, with further growth to $903 million in FY25. The company’s market capitalization now stands at approximately $11.495 billion, with an enterprise value of $9.153 billion, and financial ratios include a Price to Earnings of 55x, EV/EBITDA of 12.5x, and a Free Cash Flow (FCF) Yield of 21.7%.

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Bear Case

Is Instacart’s market share at risk?

With increasing competition in the online grocery space, Instacart faces the challenge of maintaining its market share. The company’s top-line growth is slower compared to peers like and Uber, which are gaining share in the grocery segment. Competitive market uncertainty remains a concern, with the potential for market share losses and macroeconomic factors affecting growth. Despite these challenges, Instacart’s valuation appears attractive, and the company is well-positioned to capture incremental share due to its marketplace leadership and strong margin profile.

Can Instacart sustain its profitability amid competition?

Instacart’s profitability has exceeded expectations, with EBITDA well ahead of consensus. However, questions arise if more investment in growth should be made given the intensifying competition. The company aims to be GAAP profitable next year, but it must balance the need for profitability with the necessity to invest in growth to fend off competitors.

Bull Case

Will Instacart’s advertising business drive future growth?

Instacart’s advertising revenue grew by 19% year-over-year, with increased penetration into GTV. The company has expanded its advertising business through partnerships and increased ad spending, which is expected to drive future growth. With a unique and differentiated advertising business model, Instacart has a significant lead in the large basket grocery delivery market.

Can Instacart leverage its first-mover advantage?

Instacart’s first-mover advantage and proven profitability in the online grocery space are attractive valuation points. The company’s strong Q3 performance and improved margin outlook, combined with the potential for GTV acceleration in early 2024, position Instacart for sustained top-line growth.

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SWOT Analysis

Strengths:

  • Leadership position in online grocery delivery.
  • Strong advertising revenue stream.
  • Significant cash reserves and share buyback program.

Weaknesses:

  • Slower top-line growth compared to competitors.
  • High stock-based compensation post-IPO.
  • Risks associated with gig worker regulatory scrutiny.

Opportunities:

  • Potential acceleration of GTV growth as SNAP benefit headwinds ease.
  • Expansion of advertising business and international reach.
  • Deepening retailer relationships and audience growth investments.

Threats:

  • Intense competition from companies like DoorDash and Uber.
  • Market share loss and macroeconomic factors affecting growth.
  • Consumer behavior changes post-COVID.

Analysts Targets

– JMP Securities: Market Outperform with a price target of $35 (November 14, 2023).

– Barclays: Overweight with a price target of $40 (November 9, 2023).

– Bernstein: Market-Perform with a price target of $30 (November 9, 2023).

– Wolfe Research: Outperform with a raised price target of $39 (March 5, 2024).

– Stifel: Buy with a price target of $48 (November 9, 2023).

– J.P. Morgan: Overweight with a price target of $33 (November 9, 2023).

– BofA Global Research: Neutral with a price target of $31 (November 9, 2023).

– Baird: Outperform with a price target of $31 (January 18, 2024).

– Gordon Haskett: Hold with a revised price target of $38, up from the previous $34 (April 9, 2024).

– Piper Sandler & Co.: Overweight with an increased price target of $45.00 from $36.00 (March 15, 2024).

The timeframe used for this analysis spans from January to November 2023.

InvestingPro Insights

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Instacart, known on the stock market as EXCHANGE:CART, has become a focal point for investors seeking opportunities in the burgeoning online grocery sector. With a market capitalization of approximately $9.76 billion, the company’s financial health and growth prospects are under constant scrutiny. Instacart’s recent performance has demonstrated some notable highlights, as evidenced by the data and insights from InvestingPro.

One of the key strengths of Instacart is its impressive gross profit margin, which stands at 74.88% for the last twelve months as of Q4 2023. This figure not only underscores the company’s ability to maintain a substantial markup on its sales but also suggests operational efficiency in managing the costs of goods sold. Moreover, Instacart’s revenue growth remains robust, with an increase of 19.25% during the same period, indicating a strong demand for its services and potential for future expansion.

InvestingPro Tips highlight several aspects that could influence investor sentiment. Instacart’s financial resilience is reflected in its liquidity position, where its liquid assets surpass short-term obligations, providing a cushion against market volatility. Additionally, the company holds more cash than debt on its balance sheet, presenting a favorable financial structure that could attract cautious investors. Instacart’s net income is expected to grow this year, offering a positive outlook for its profitability trajectory. Notably, analysts predict the company will be profitable this year, which could mark a turning point in its financial narrative.

While Instacart has not been profitable over the last twelve months, the company’s stock has experienced a strong return over the last three months, with a price total return of 53.3%. This performance suggests growing investor confidence in Instacart’s business model and future prospects. It is important to note that Instacart does not pay a dividend to shareholders, which might be a consideration for income-focused investors.

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For those interested in further analysis and additional insights, InvestingPro offers a comprehensive range of tips for Instacart, with 9 additional tips listed on their platform. These tips provide a deeper dive into the company’s financial health, market position, and potential growth pathways, which can be found at https://www.investing.com/pro/CART.

With the next earnings date scheduled for May 8, 2024, investors and analysts will be keeping a close eye on Instacart’s performance metrics and strategic initiatives to gauge the company’s trajectory in the competitive online grocery market.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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Russian attacks on Kharkiv and region kill one, injure 17, officials say

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By Vitalii Hnidyi

KHARKIV, Ukraine (Reuters) – Russian attacks on Orthodox Easter Sunday killed a woman buried under rubble and injured 17 in Ukraine’s northeastern city of Kharkiv and the surrounding region, regional officials said.

Regional Governor Oleh Syniehubov, writing on the Telegram messaging app, said six people were injured in an overnight drone attack on the Osnovyanskyi district of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city.

Ten more were hurt in an attack later in the day by aerial bombs on the city centre.

“The next time it could hit my house. Why did it hit here? Just who is here? And on such a holy day. How? I cannot grasp it at all…” Natalia Avilova-Patrikeyeva said outside an apartment building with shattered balconies and windows blown out.

“I thought that at least on this day it would remain calm. At four in the morning there also was a strike. I don’t sleep, I don’t sleep at all.”

Kharkiv withstood a weeks-long Russian onslaught in the early days of the February 2022 Russian invasion and has been a frequent target of attacks in recent weeks.

Russia says it does not target civilian sites, but attacks have hit apartment blocks, schools and medical institutions.

Stunned residents milled about the courtyard outside a bloc of flats or surveyed debris in apartments or in stairwells. Forensic experts combed the ground for pieces of shrapnel.

“The explosion wave kicked out the door and I hid under the table. When I realised what was happening, there was smoke everywhere,” said resident Roza Kuzmenko.

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“One woman from our block was wounded, the ambulance took her. Thank God, I only have a scratch (on my arm).”

Syniehubov also reported the death of an 88-year-old woman in the shelling of the village of Monachynivka, east of Kharkiv. Her body was recovered from the rubble of a house. A man was injured.

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