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Bitcoin (BTC) tests $28,000, but onchain metrics urge caution

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Bitcoin tests $28,000

Over the past week, bitcoin has strengthened by about 30%. However, onchain indicators warn that despite this brisk rally, BTC could retreat to the $24,500 area.

According to analytics platform MacroMicro, the average cost of mining bitcoin accelerated last month.

Over the past 30 days through March 20, the cost of mining peaked at $33,000 per block, while the currency was only able to appreciate to $28,500. This divergence means that despite bitcoin’s rise, miners’ losses have only been piling up over the past month.

A nice development was the day of March 18, when the value of BTC overtook the cost of mining by about $3,000. However, all of this surplus will soon evaporate when new miners come to the market in the near future, rushing to take advantage of the coin’s appreciation.

In addition, the current rise in bitcoin may encourage miners to sell some of their reserves to compensate for earlier losses. Considering that miners’ reserves account for about 10% of the total amount of BTC in circulation right now, such bearish pressure from node operators in the bitcoin network could have a tangible impact on the cryptocurrency’s exchange rate.

Coin inflows to exchanges

Another potentially troubling sign could be the recently increased net inflow of bitcoins to trading platforms. This is signaled by data from the leading blockchain analytics resource, Glassnode.

Over the past seven days, the inflow of BTC deposits to exchanges has significantly exceeded the outflow of coins from trading platforms. During this period, the number of bitcoins stored on exchange addresses has consistently increased from 3,895 BTC as of March 13 to 36,700+ BTC as of March 19.

Typically, prolonged net inflows of bitcoins to exchanges are a sign that hodlers are preparing more intensely for short-term trading activity or convenient profit-taking opportunities.

If these assumptions are confirmed, such sales could trigger a pullback in the BTC exchange rate in the coming weeks.

BTC forecast: possible dive below $25,000

According to IntoTheBlock’s In the Money/Out of the Money (IOMAP) statistics, a likely target for bitcoin may be the $24,500 area.

As a reminder, this metric tracks addresses that approach the breakeven level. Historically, hodlers tend to sell when the BTC exchange rate reaches the average price. As of March 20, more than 72% of bitcoin hodlers were in the profit zone. This could signal the potential for massive profit-taking.

If bitcoin enters a bearish trend, the first stop will be the $27,000 area, where 307,000 addresses that bought 364,000 coins can offer decent support for the coin. If this barrier does not hold, a sharp drop in price to $24,500 is possible. There are about 1 million addresses who bought about 360 thousand coins.

This pessimistic forecast will be neutralized if the price breaks above $29,500, where 345 thousand addresses, which earlier bought 130 thousand coins, are concentrated. This breakthrough may provoke a rally to $32,000. In this area, there is a cluster of 237 thousand addresses that may want to sell some of the 74 thousand BTC that belong to them.

We previously reported that Hong Kong allocated another $50 million to the crypto industry.

Cryptocurrency

UFC Legend Conor McGregor Wants a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve in Ireland

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Conor McGregor, the 36-year-old UFC legend with 22 wins and 6 losses, has urged his homeland to become a crypto hub by implementing a digital asset reserve.

He asserted that crypto in its origin was “founded to give power back to the people,” and noted that he will co-host a Twitter (X) space to “talk about what I want to see changed.”

While he spoke about both crypto and Bitcoin in terms of Irish reserve, many of the comments below his original post urged him and his country to focus only on the largest digital asset.

Anthony Pompliano was among the first to pick up McGregor’s call for a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve in Ireland and, expectedly, praised the move.

The notion of countries adopting BTC as a strategic reserve asset has been talked about for years within the community. However, it was just a distant dream until very recently.

The idea is that bitcoin has similar qualities like gold, and the yellow metal used to back numerous fiat currencies and is still held en mass by numerous central banks. So, why not BTC, right?

Well, the critics have argued for the past few years that bitcoin is too young and volatile and hasn’t matured yet to be in such a responsible position. After the US elections, though, the tides have turned.

Current US President Donald Trump has dabbled with the idea of establishing a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve in the country, and there are multiple discussions on the matter among different countries. Although it still feels too early, as most are just that – discussions or blatant rejections – it could be considered as a move in the right direction. It has to start from somewhere, right?

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Ripple’s Price Underperforms, But Here’s Some Really Good News for XRP

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TL;DR

  • Ripple Labs received some good news this past week from the SEC, but the native token hasn’t really picked up the pace, unlike many of its rivals.
  • Now, though, analysts tend to believe that the asset is due for some big gains.

The broader crypto market was revived in the past week as bitcoin finally broke above $100,000 and tapped a new multi-month peak at over $104,000. Many altcoins, such as DOGE, SOL, and HYPE, posted impressive gains, and so did ETH. In fact, Ethereum’s weekly increase stands at over 31%.

At the same time, XRP is also in the green, of course, but its weekly surge stands at just over 9%. On a monthly scale, it has added 21% (impressive, yes) but nowhere near as notable as ETH’s 54% surge or even BTC’s 28% jump.

What’s even more surprising is that the SEC officially filed for a settlement in the legal case against Ripple Labs and wants just a $50 million penalty payment, which is a fraction of the $2 billion it initially asked for.

Nevertheless, XRP still managed to break through an important resistance set at $2.26 and closed well above it on the daily. The short-term target for the asset is at $2.6, said Ali Martinez, who posted an update today with even more good news for XRP’s future price performance.

The analyst with over 137,000 followers on X said the SuperTrend Indicator had just flashed a buy signal for XRP.

Chad Steingraber found some similarities between the current market structure and the events that transpired in January. At the time, XRP’s Open Interest soared to almost $5 billion, and its price skyrocketed from $2.3 to roughly $3.4 within a week. Now, the Open Interest is close to those levels.

BitGuru noted that XRP had broken out of a double bottom and is “riding a strong uptrend with higher highs.” If it manages to stay above $2.23, which is far below the current price tag of $2.4, it could experience another bullish leg up, they added.

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DOGE Explodes by 35% in 2 days But Is That Just the Start?

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TL;DR

  • Meme coin season seems to be returning as numerous representatives of that niche have recorded massive gains, including their leader.
  • DOGE’s price has soared by double-digit on a daily, weekly, and monthly scale, but analysts seem to be aligned in thinking that this is just the start.

Recall that DOGE’s price had tumbled to a multi-month low of $0.13 just several weeks back, during the darkest hours of the Trade War between the US and essentially the rest of the world. As the global macro conditions improved, though, so did the crypto market, and Dogecoin has been among the frontrunners of gains.

Fast forward to May 8, the OG meme coin’s price stood at around $0.17. In just a short 48-hour period, its price skyrocketed by 35% to its highest levels since early March of $0.23.

Popular crypto analysts quickly picked up the move and outlined even more bullish price targets for the largest meme coin. Ali Martinez was among the more modest ones, envisioning a price surge to $0.27 as DOGE has rebounded “strongly from its ascending support trendline.”

Satoshi Flipper was even more bullish, indicating that DOGE’s price against the dollar is “ripping” and their chart predicts a price surge toward $0.4.

Cephii told their almost 80,000 followers on X that Dogecoin will have a new floor price because of the ETFs that they believe have a “high likelihood of being approved.” They advised people to hold and continue buying if the price slips to $0.19 once again.

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