Bitcoin has been navigating an ascending consolidation phase near its critical $108K resistance level, recently encountering a sharp decline.

However, strong support zones suggest a potential for a short-term bullish rebound.

Technical Analysis

By Shayan

The Daily Chart

Bitcoin has undergone an ascending consolidation phase near the $108K resistance region, only to face increased selling pressure and distribution activity from large market participants.

This wave of selling led to a significant 15% decline, with the price finding support around the $90K mark and the middle boundary of a long-standing bullish price channel. These levels represent a critical defense line against further declines.

A rebound from this support could set the stage for a renewed attempt to reclaim the $108K mark. Conversely, a failure to hold it may lead to a deeper correction, with the channel’s lower boundary near $75K serving as the next key level of support.

The 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin has been consistently trending upward within a multi-month bullish channel. The recent rejection at $108K triggered a sharp decline, bringing the price down to the channel’s middle boundary near $95K, a crucial dynamic support level.

A bounce from this region is anticipated, allowing the price to stabilize and potentially resume its uptrend. However, concerns over a hawkish monetary policy for 2025 may amplify selling pressure, increasing the likelihood of a bearish breakout.

In such a scenario, Bitcoin could face further downside, with $90K as an immediate target and $75K as long-term support.

On-chain Analysis

By Shayan

The Bitcoin Long-Term Holder SOPR metric provides valuable insights into market behavior and investor sentiment. Between 2022 and mid-2023, the SOPR remained below 1 for an extended period, indicating that long-term holders were selling at a loss associated with market capitulation.

By mid-2023, the SOPR began trending closer to or above 1, marking the beginning of a recovery. This shift was aligned with a broader market rebound as Bitcoin prices rose, reflecting renewed confidence among investors. The upward trend in SOPR suggested that long-term holders were no longer selling at a loss, a key sign of improving sentiment.

As the market moved into 2024, Bitcoin prices continued to climb, and the SOPR consistently stayed above 1. This shift signified that long-term holders realized profits, but the selling pressure remained controlled.

The stability of the SOPR above 1 highlights sustained confidence among investors, reinforcing that market conditions support continued growth, with a potential for further market expansion.

TL:DR;

• Dogecoin was once the top-performing cryptocurrency after Donald Trump’s victory, going from under $0.15 to almost $0.5.
• Although it has lost its momentum, especially in the past week or so, history shows that its most spectacular price surge during this cycle could still be around the corner.

Can DOGE Pull a 2021-Like Rally?

Perhaps due to its affiliation with Elon Musk and his upcoming role in Donald Trump’s administration, Dogecoin skyrocketed after the US presidential elections. Its price exploded by more than 200% from its aforementioned bottom to $0.485 on December 8.

After these quite impressive gains, though, DOGE started to retrace but still maintained the $0.4 level. However, that all changed last week when the market-wide crash pushed it south hard. In just a few days, DOGE’s price tumbled by nearly 40% to $0.26.

Although such a massive correction sounds painful, it is not something unheard of for the crypto market, especially in the ever-volatile meme coin sector. Similar enhanced fluctuations have transpired in the past as well, which could actually suggest a more favorable future for DOGE.

Popular crypto analyst Ali Martinez compared the recent crash to similar developments that took place during the bull cycles in 2017 and 2021. In both instances, the largest meme coin surged by triple-digits, retraced by 40-60%, and then shot up by four or even five digits by the end of the respective runs.

In 2017, when #Dogecoin began a parabolic run, it surged 212%, retraced 40%, then rallied 5,000%. In 2021, it went up 476%, retraced 56%, then skyrocketed 12,000%.

Now, in 2024, $DOGE is up 440% and has retraced by 46%. If history repeats, another parabolic rally is on the way! pic.twitter.com/uhf2kMc0Id

— Ali (@ali_charts) December 23, 2024

Can DOGE Soar Above $10?

Skyrocketing by 5,000% or 12,000% sounds quite bullish, but let’s look at these predictions more realistically. In 2017 and 2021, DOGE’s price was a lot more modest, and posting such massive gains seemed easier, at least on paper.

If the OG meme coin is to surge by similar percentages from now on, its price and market cap would have to go to the stratosphere. For example, a 5,000% increase would put its price at over $13, and the market cap would be at over $1.9 trillion – or bigger than bitcoin’s current one.

If DOGE repeats the 2021 gains, then its price would go all the way up to $31-32, and its market capitalization would be north of $4.5 trillion – bigger than Apple’s.

Although these numbers sound quite far-fetched and history is no indicator of future price performances, this doesn’t necessarily mean that DOGE has peaked during this cycle. Dogecoin is still far away from its all-time high registered in 2021, and many other assets have managed to break their peaks, so DOGE might still have a lot of room for growth.

Ripple is navigating a pivotal range between $1.8 and $3, with recent price action highlighting the likelihood of a consolidation phase.

A breakout from this range will likely determine its next significant trend.

By Shayan

The Daily Chart

XRP recently faced rejection at the critical $3 resistance, triggering increased volatility and initiating a sideways consolidation phase. After that, the price found support at the $1.8 level, a key zone filled with demand and buying pressure.

This support region can limit further downward movement and maintain the cryptocurrency within the $1.8-$3 range.

As the price consolidates, a bullish or bearish breakout will determine Ripple’s upcoming trajectory. While this could lead to a sustained uptrend, an unexpected bearish breakdown might trigger a significant liquidation event, causing the price to plummet toward lower levels.

The 4-Hour Chart

During the 4-hour timeframe, XRP consolidates within a descending wedge pattern, which often signals a potential bullish breakout if breached upward.

Currently, the price is testing the wedge’s lower boundary near the $1.8 support level, where increased buying activity is expected.

In the mid-term, Ripple seems likely to continue fluctuating within this pattern, with a bullish breakout aiming to reclaim higher levels near $3. Conversely, a bearish breakdown below the wedge’s lower boundary could initiate a decline, potentially driving the price toward the $1.5 threshold, a crucial support level.