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Why Cathie Wood is bullish on Coinbase stock and believes Bitcoin will reach $1 million

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In an interview with Bloomberg, ARK Invest CEO and chief investment officer Cathie Wood recently discussed why her flagship fund, Ark Innovation (ARKK), is adding to its position in shares of Coinbase (COIN) after the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sued Binance, one of Coinbase’s biggest competitors.

ARKK purchased nearly 330,00 shares of COIN on June 6, 2023, worth about $17 million at the time, according to disclosure statements. Two other exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Ark Fintech Innovation ETF and Ark Next Generation Internet ETF, also added 35,700 shares (worth $1.8 million) and 53,900 shares (worth $2.8 million), respectively.

Across all three funds, Ark’s average entry price is $272.75 to $282.93, with the firm’s total position currently valued at $1.77 billion. At the time of writing, COIN is trading at $53.90. Needless to say, the fund is deeply in the red on this trade so far.

As far as why she’s still bullish, her reasoning boils down to this: SEC enforcement will lead Coinbase to become the only game in town when it comes to cryptocurrency exchanges in the United States. Of course, this assumes that Coinbase will triumph in its own legal battles with the SEC.

Wood explained that she sees a difference in the accusations being brought against the two exchanges. While both are facing lawsuits by the SEC over the alleged trading and staking of unregistered securities, Binance may also be facing more serious charges.

Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao, or CZ for short, was faced with a civil enforcement action filed by the U.S. regulator for derivatives in March. The action alleges that CZ and three of the exchanges affiliates violated the Commodity Exchange Act and several regulations of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

These types of allegations “have nothing to do with Coinbase,” according to Wood. Therefore, she believes that Coinbase will survive the storm and emerge victorious, with its biggest competitor out of the picture.

It’s hard to say whether or not Wood’s conviction on COIN can be considered well-justified. While some analysts share her view, others do not. The analyst consensus on the stock is a Hold rating, with an average price target of $58.49, or roughly 12% to the upside from current levels.

Several notable analysts have come forward with more bullish price targets of $70, including John Todaro and Atlantic Equities.

The relative strength index is almost perfectly neutral at a reading of 49.7, suggesting no decisive direction for COIN at this time.

It could be that COIN is the best and soon-to-be-only option when it comes to U.S.-based cryptocurrency exchanges. But this alone may or may not lead to COIN price appreciation.

When evaluating the future prospects of an equity, most analysts tend not to look at one factor in isolation. Basing an investment thesis on the sole premise that a company’s competitors may be doomed can lead analysts to ignore other, and perhaps even more important, factors.

Could Coinbase also face criminal charges going forward?

It’s worth repeating that Coinbase is also facing a lawsuit from the SEC regarding the trading and staking of unregistered securities. This could eventually lead to the exchange being deemed to have participated in illegal activities.

But perhaps even more concerning than SEC enforcement actions is the allegation that Coinbase may have invested in projects it planned to list on the exchange before they became available to the public.

After Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong spoke with The Wall Street Journal on June 10, rumors started circulating that the company may have done just that. In the interview, Armstrong gave no adequate answer to a question concerning whether or not Coinbase invests in tokens listed on the platform.

It’s no secret that almost every single time a new token gets listed on Coinbase, the price tanks.

If this was, in fact, due to an orchestrated pump-and-dump scheme, it could constitute a financial crime of epic proportions.

The question is: Does any potential evidence exist for such a serious accusation?

Well, yes and no.

Looking at Coinbase Venture’s portfolio, it does appear that as many as 30 projects that appeared in the company’s investment portfolio were also listed on the exchange. However, Coinbase Ventures claims that it does not “coordinate with review and listings teams” and is “run and staffed separately from the main business.”

While this does not necessarily mean that Coinbase used its exchange as a giant pump-and-dump scheme, it may point to one more thing for financial authorities to consider investigating. Needless to say, news of such an investigation would probably not bode well for the share price of COIN.

Bitcoin to $1 million?

In her conversation with Bloomberg, Wood reiterated her view that “Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation.” Yet she also noted that she sees deflation as a substantial risk going forward. Despite this, she remains bullish on the Bitcoin price, holding firm to her $1 million target.

Bitcoin experienced a golden cross back in February, with the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) moving above the 200-day EMA. Volumes have been declining, along with the Chaikin money flow, suggesting the potential for sideways trading for the time being.

Even in a deflationary environment, Bitcoin can still outperform due to it being “an antidote to counterparty risk in the traditional financial system,” according to Wood.

Given that three of the four largest bank failures in U.S. history have occurred in the last three months, she could have a point.

The next Bitcoin halving event is less than one year away. Investors are currently in the “accumulation” phase of the cycle, as seen in the graph below.

Cryptocurrency

Layer-1 Assets Rally as Market Anticipates Trump’s Pro-Crypto Administration: CryptoQuant

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The promise of a pro-crypto regulatory environment led by the incoming administration of the United States President Donald Trump has triggered a positive effect among cryptocurrencies, with the native assets of layer-1 blockchains raking in substantial gains.

According to a CryptoQuant report, crypto assets like XRP, TRX, Toncoin (TON), SOL, ADA, the native assets of Ripple, Tron Network, The Open Network, Solana, and Cardano, respectively, have witnessed significant rallies since the conclusion of the U.S. presidential elections.

Layer-1 Coins on the Rise

Ripple’s native cryptocurrency, XRP, has surged over 120% to $1.40 since the elections, crushing the $1 mark for the first time in three years. Data from CoinMarketCap shows the asset is up more than 166% monthly and 25% daily, a growth partly fueled by a resignation update from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) chairman Gary Gensler.

The SEC and Ripple have been involved in a legal battle for years, and Gensler’s departure could ease the digital asset infrastructure developer’s concerns.

The rise in the value of XRP coincides with decentralized exchange (DEX) activity on the network hitting a new all-time high and total active addresses spiking to the highest daily level since early 2024. CryptoQuant found that DEX volume on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) reached $3.5 million on November 15, with participation from 80 traders. Ripple launched this new automated market maker DEX in May to support the chain’s limit order book DEX.

Tron Network’s native token, TRX, also hit a multi-year high of $0.20 and is up almost 10% weekly. Tron has witnessed a steady growth in transaction activity, driven by the use of Tether (USDT). This year, the network’s daily transaction count rose to a new high of 10 million, while the total supply of USDT hit a record high of over $60 billion.

Daily Spot Volume Surges

In addition, Toncoin’s value increased by 39% amid the high level of activity and stablecoin liquidity on The Open Network. Daily active addresses on the network now hover around one million, up significantly from 60,000 at the start of the year. CryptoQuant also attributed this growth to the integration of USDT on TON in April. The stablecoin has become one of the most active assets on the network, with a circulating supply above $1 billion.

SOL has rallied to an all-time high of $263, while ADA is up 160% to levels last seen in March 2024.

CryptoQuant added that the surge in altcoin prices came with a spike in daily spot trading volume. On November 11, the metric reached one of the highest levels recorded this year.

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Why Peter Schiff Is Wrong About Bitcoin and Inflation (Opinion)

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The world’s leading cryptographic currency is trading over 40% higher than its average price on the eve of the November 5th US elections.

Analysts agree that this is owing in large part to the promises of the Trump campaign and its allies to ensure that the federal government is fair to the innovative new Internet industry. But it’s also a repeat of a historic pattern in Bitcoin’s 4-year market supply cycle.

Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood recently doubled down on her 2030 price target for Bitcoin. Last week, she told CNBC’s audience that if history continues to repeat itself, BTC will trade at $1 million by 2030.

The blockchain money industry says that’s good news for the economy as well as the secure layer of the Internet they’re building for financial transactions. But not everyone agrees.

Peter Schiff Casts Shade on Web3 Macro Economics

Peter Schiff, founder and chief strategist of the Euro Pacific macro hedge fund, said in a post on X Wednesday that money spent on Bitcoin is a “misallocation” that will lead to inefficiencies in the economy. Schiff added that larger trade deficits, a weaker dollar, and lower GDP are the health of the Bitcoin regime.

In another post Wednesday, Schiff remarked that Bitcoin will ironically become a source of inflation, even as buyers use the cryptocurrency as a shelter from dollar inflation.

How Bitcoin Helps the Fed Do its Job

Schiff may be getting tangled up in the terminology of inflation. It’s a forgivable error. Bitcoin’s role in the ecosystem is so novel it’s still difficult to comprehend, even for a capable economist like the founder of the Euro Pac.

Rising business and consumer costs from low-rate dollar environments are the inflation that cryptocurrency users use Bitcoin to protect and grow their wealth. Rising BTC prices represent the dollar’s inflation and Bitcoin’s relative deflation.

(BTC is inflationary, but far less so than the dollar when the Federal Reserve cuts rates.)

So, will more investment in Bitcoin actually goose the trade deficit with China and US dollar inflation while slowing new supplies of goods and services that people use money to buy?

Every dollar sent to Bitcoin instead of overseas to China for imports actually helps balance the trade deficit. Meanwhile, it’s not Bitcoin that causes dollar inflation; the Federal Reserve increases the dollar supply to target lower borrowing costs.

Since resolving the financial crisis of 2008, the Fed has actually been terrified that the money supply isn’t keeping up with GDP. The danger of the resulting deflation is a potential debt devaluation spiral that could mire the economy into an intractable depression.

Bitcoin actually supports the central bank in this regard by locking up excess savings in a digital economy that incentivizes participants to “hodl,” not to spend their surplus earnings.

If they were spending all that crypto market cap worth of surplus value, it could drive up prices, ceterus paribus, and make life harder for fixed-income households to manage.

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Cryptocurrency

$500M in Liquidations as Bitcoin Dumps Below $96K, Ripple Down 10% Daily

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After several days of charting new peaks and coming less than $200 away from $100,000, bitcoin’s price has taken a breather and has dropped by over four grand since Friday’s high.

Several of the high-flying altcoins on Saturday have reversed their trajectory as well, with XRP, DOGE, and ADA dumping hard from the larger caps.

CryptoPotato reported yesterday BTC’s impressive surge that resulted in the asset exceeding $99,800 on most exchanges to chart its latest all-time high. While the community was preparing for a run toward and beyond $100,000, though, the cryptocurrency lost its momentum and started to retrace.

At first, it dropped to $98,000 on Sunday, as reported earlier, but the bears kept the pressure on and bitcoin fell even further to under $96,000. Its market cap has slipped below $1.9 trillion after losing over $60 billion since Friday.

Bitcoin/Price/Chart 24.11.2024. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin/Price/Chart 24.11.2024. Source: TradingView

Many altcoins have dumped even harder in the past day, though. XRP is the leader after dropping by 11% from its local peak of over $1.6 to $1.34. ADA follows suit with a 9% decline that has taken it to under $1.

Some losses are evident from the ever-volatile meme coin sector, with BRETT down by 10%, followed by BONK (-9%), FLOKI (-8%), and WIF (-7.5%).

Dogecoin is also in the red, dropping from nearly $0.5 on Saturday morning to $0.41 now.

This substantial volatility has harmed over-levaraged traders, with nearly 200,000 such market participants wrecked in the past 24 hours. The total value of liquidated positions is up to almost $500 million. Naturally, the lion’s share belong to longs, with $383 million.

The largest single one took place on Binance and was worth over $13 million.

Liquidation Heat Map. Source: CoinGlass
Liquidation Heat Map. Source: CoinGlass
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