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Commodities

China refiners stoke petrochemical glut in market share war as demand flags

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China is relentlessly adding new petrochemical capacity despite a global glut as the country’s refiners diversify from transport fuels, threatening to depress margins worldwide through 2024 as weak economic growth saps demand.

In an ominous sign for producers of the chemicals used in plastic packaging, polyester clothing and auto parts, refiners’ profit margins on processing naphtha to make ethylene turned negative last week for the first time since October.

The profit crunch is being driven by China’s refiners boosting output of olefins such as ethylene to offset an expected decline in sales of petrol and diesel as electric vehicle take-up accelerates. Their capacity expansion is outpacing growth in demand for the chemicals.

Global demand for ethylene and propylene is forecast to surge 29% from 2023 to 426.8 million metric tons by 2030, while capacity is expected to jump 25% from 2023 to 485.9 million metric tons by 2030, research firm Wood Mackenzie (WoodMac) estimates.

New capacity in China is expected to make up more than half of that growth, according to the International Energy Agency.

In 2023, WoodMac sees China’s output growth creating a local surplus of 4.24 million metric tons of ethylene and an even bigger oversupply of propylene at 8.69 million metric tons.

“The surplus of olefins will be pushed onto the water to clear elsewhere in Asia or further afield in Europe and the U.S. at steep discounts,” Energy Aspects analysts said in a note.

“This poses more risk to utilisation rates in the rest of Asia and Europe, which are more sensitive to margin compression.”

MARKET SHARE BATTLE

Newly launched refinery complexes by state giant PetroChina’s Guangdong Petrochemical and privately-run Jiangsu Shenghong Petrochemical have added to surging petrochemical supply from mega refiners Zhejiang Petrochemical Corp and Hengli Petrochemical that has come online in recent years.

Despite margin pressure, Chinese producers are likely to keep plants operating to protect market share and prevent deeper losses that would result from shutting units, a Chinese refining source said, declining to be named.

Producers are already feeling the pain in their battle against each other for market share.

Asia’s largest refiner, China’s state-run Sinopec Corp, warned in its first-quarter report that its chemicals business faced pressure from competing new supply and a tepid recovery in demand.

Independent refiner Hengli Petrochemical’s net profit slid nearly 76% in the first quarter due to “high operating costs and low industry demand,” the company said in April.

Rongsheng Petrochemical and Hengyi Petrochemical swung to net losses in the first quarter.

The world’s largest producer and consumer of petrochemicals, China has been unable to absorb the extra output as its domestic market has struggled to recover from three years of strict COVID-19 curbs and weaker global demand for its exports.

Since the pandemic, Chinese consumption patterns have prioritised socialising over spending on goods, Ganesh Gopalakrishnan, TotalEnergies’s global head of petrochemical trading.

While Chinese demand from some sectors such as inexpensive clothing and daily essentials is robust, other sectors such as automative have yet to recover in line with expectations, said Salmon Lee, global head of polyesters at consultancy WoodMac.

Pointing to high petrochemical stockpiles, Lee said: “The destocking process could take time.”

($1 = 7.1779 Chinese yuan renminbi)

Commodities

Chinese companies win licensing bids to explore Iraq oil and gas fields

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By Moayed Kenany, Timour Azhari and Adam Makary

BAGHDAD (Reuters) -Chinese companies won bids to explore five Iraqi oil and gas fields on Saturday in a licensing round for hydrocarbon exploration that was primarily aimed at ramping up gas production for domestic use.

An Iraqi Kurdish company also took two of the 29 projects up for grabs in the three-day licensing round across central, southern and western Iraq, which for the first time includes an offshore exploration block in the country’s Arab Gulf waters.

Iraq aims to lure billions of dollars of investments to develop its oil and gas sector as it looks to ramp up local petrochemicals production and end imports of gas from neighbouring Iran that are currently key to producing power.

More than 20 companies pre-qualified for the licensing round, including European, Chinese, Arab and Iraqi groups.

There were notably no U.S. oil majors involved, even after Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia met with representatives of U.S. oil firms during an official visit to the United States last month.

Five bids were won on Saturday by Chinese companies.

Zhongman Petroleum and Natural Gas Group (ZPEC) took the northern extension of the Eastern Baghdad field, in Baghdad, and the Middle Euphrates field that straddles the southern Najaf and Karbala provinces, the oil ministry said.

China’s United Energy Group Ltd won a bid to develop the Al-Faw field in southern Basra, while ZhenHua won a bid to develop Iraq’s Qurnain field in the Iraqi-Saudi border region and Geo-Jade won a bid to develop Iraq’s Zurbatiya field in the Wasit.

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Two oil and gas fields were taken by Iraq’s KAR Group – the Dimah field in eastern Maysan province, and the Sasan & Alan fields in Iraq’s northwestern Nineveh province – the ministry said.

Around 20 more projects are open for bidding on Sunday and Monday.

Falah Al-amri, the Iraqi prime minister’s advisor for oil and gas issues, said the government hoped the new projects would raise oil production to 6 million barrels per day by 2030 from around 5 million now.

The government also wants the projects to produce enough so that, along with plans to all-but eliminate gas flaring by 2030, Iraq could end imports.

“Its too early to talk about (gas) exports. We want to get self-sufficient,” Al-amri told Reuters.

Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest oil producer after Saudi Arabia, at one time had targeted becoming a rival to the Gulf Arab kingdom with output of over a tenth of global demand.

But its oil sector development has been hampered by contract terms viewed as unfavourable by many major oil companies as well as recurring conflict and political paralysis.

Growing investor focus in recent years on environmental, social and governance criteria have also had an effect.

Western oil giants such as Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:) and Royal Dutch Shell (LON:) Plc have departed from a number of projects in Iraq while Chinese companies have steadily expanded their footprint.

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Commodities

Oil falls on prospect of higher-for-longer US rates, stronger dollar

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By Laila Kearney

NEW YORK (Reuters) -Oil prices fell by nearly $1 a barrel on Friday as comments from U.S. central bank officials indicated higher-for-longer interest rates, which could hinder demand from the world’s largest crude consumers.

futures settled at $82.79 a barrel, down $1.09, or 1.3%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $78.26 a barrel, down $1.00, or 1.3%.

For the week, Brent logged a 0.2% loss, while WTI recorded a rise of 0.2%.

Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan on Friday said it was unclear whether monetary policy was tight enough to bring down inflation to the U.S. central bank’s 2% goal.

Higher interest rates typically slow economic activity and weaken oil demand.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic also told Reuters he thought inflation was likely to slow under current monetary policy, enabling the central bank to begin reducing its policy rate in 2024 – though perhaps by only a quarter of a percentage point and not until the final months of the year.

“The two Fed speakers certainly seemed to put the kibosh on the prospect of rate cuts,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital.

The U.S. dollar strengthened after the Fed officials’ comments, making greenback-denominated commodities more expensive for buyers using other currencies. Higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates could also dampen demand.

Oil prices were also under pressure from rising U.S. fuel inventories approaching the typically robust summer driving season, said Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch and Associates.

“Given the price decline of the past month and the weaker-than-expected demand trends for U.S. gasoline and diesel, some bearish demand adjustment would appear likely,” Ritterbusch said.

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Next week, U.S. inflation data could influence Fed decisions on rates.

Oil drew little support from the U.S. oil rig count, which is an indicator of future supply, despite energy services firm Baker Hughes data showing the number of oil rigs fell by three to 496 this week, their lowest since November. [RIG/U]

Money managers, meanwhile, cut their net long futures and options positions in the week to May 7 by 56,517 contracts to 82,697, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission said.

Data on Thursday showing China imported more oil in April than the same month last year also helped keep oil prices from moving lower. China’s exports and imports returned to growth in April after contracting the previous month.

The European Central Bank, meanwhile, looks increasingly likely to start cutting rates in June.

In Europe, a Ukrainian drone attack set an oil refinery in Russia’s Kaluga region on fire, RIA state news agency reported on Friday, the latest salvo from Kyiv in what has become a series of tit-for-tat attacks on energy infrastructure.

Conflict in the Middle East also continues after Israeli forces bombarded areas of the southern Gaza city of Rafah on Thursday, according to Palestinian residents, after a lack of progress in the latest round of negotiations to halt hostilities in Gaza.

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Commodities

Wildfire evacuation notice issued for oil sands rich Alberta town

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TORONTO (Reuters) -An evacuation alert has been issued for Fort McMurray, Alberta, as an out-of-control fire rages southwest of the major Canadian oil town, making it among the first actions ahead of the wildfire season.

In a notice late on Friday, the Alberta government said the wildfire danger is “extreme” in the Fort McMurray Forest Area and out of control at 1,000 hectares (2,471 acres) in size.

It said strong winds are expected on Saturday, as a cold front continues to pass over the region. Helicopter pilots using night vision equipment surveilled the wildfire area overnight.

In 2016, a huge wildfire in Fort McMurray forced the evacuation of 90,000 residents and shut in more than a million barrels per day of oil output.

Residents in Saprea Creek Estates are also placed on alert from the municipality of Wood Buffalo. In British Columbia, the Northern Rockies Regional Municipality issued an evacuation order for the town of Fort Nelson.

The federal government has warned Canada faces another “catastrophic” wildfire season as it forecasted higher-than-normal spring and summer temperatures across much of the country, boosted by El Nino weather conditions.

Meeting with fire chiefs in West Kelowna, one of several B.C. communities that were forced to evacuate thousands of people last summer, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Friday that it was likely to be “a very bad forest fire season.”

“People are worried about what the summer might bring. People are worried what the future might hold,” he said.

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Last year Canada endured its worst-ever fire season, with more than 6,600 blazes burning 15 million hectares, an area roughly seven times the annual average. Eight firefighters died and 230,000 people were evacuated from their homes.

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