Cryptocurrency
Crypto enthusiasts are wrong to target Gary Gensler
Laws in the United States are the problem. Cryptocurrency advocates should focus on changing them — and, in the meantime, consider moving to the European Union.
The animus of the entire crypto world is focused on Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler.
Critics argue that he paints cryptocurrencies with too broad a brush. They argue that he gaslights well-meaning entrepreneurs by encouraging them to “come in and register,” knowing his process is set up for them to fail. They argue he knows new rules are needed but prefers to enforce impractical rules in order to stifle the industry altogether. And, of course, under his leadership, the SEC filed an enforcement action against Coinbase, arguing several top coins, including Polygon’s MATIC, Solana’s SOL and others are securities largely because their issuance involved capital formation, despite their necessity in operating underlying networks.
And it’s not just naysayers in the peanut gallery. The campaign is costing the United States dearly. Venture capital investment in the U.S. crypto industry has fallen this year compared to the European Union. America is losing its lead, and time is of the essence.
The cynical explanation for Gensler’s position is political. Gensler taught a course on blockchain at MIT and is on tape explaining how not all tokens are securities, so he presumably understands the nuances of digital assets. Rather, he is playing dumb to implicitly support the agenda of Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, who is mobilizing an “anti-crypto army” and has been informally deputized by the administration of President Joe Biden to define crypto policy. If Biden wins the presidency again, perhaps this will help Gensler earn an appointment as Treasury secretary.
In response, lawmakers are piling on with bills proposing to fire him. Representatives Warren Davidson and Tom Emmer introduced the “SEC Stabilization Act,” which proposes removing Gensler and restructuring the agency to make it less partisan.
This would be misguided — not because Gensler is in the right, but because his positions are not clearly wrong under current law.
The U.S. approach to securities law relies on the Howey test, which asks whether buyers have an “expectation of profit to be derived from the efforts of others.” Of course, buyer expectations can be influenced by but are not entirely in the issuer’s control. They might also be affected by trends in the market, groupthink or even whimsy. The benefit of this approach is that it is hard to game. But the cost is a “Schroedinger’s cat” paradox, wherein the very act of perception by third parties determines whether a token is a security or not. This deters capital formation by imposing enormous risk on entrepreneurs and users that is inherently out of their control.
This paradox is put in relief by the EU’s landmark Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) legislation. The regulation acknowledges that utility tokens are not all financial instruments and prescribes clear and practical requirements for disclosure and behavior that legitimate projects are able to follow.
The EU defines securities based solely on factors in the control of the issuer, namely the structure of an instrument itself and the way it is marketed. This explains how MiCA so cleanly allows for utility tokens while the U.S. struggles with simply defining them.
This difference really matters. For example, imagine you are an entrepreneur issuing a governance token for a protocol that entitles holders to vote for changes to open-source software. In the EU, under MiCA, you can publish a transparent white paper and do your best to dispute any mischaracterizations. In the U.S., you can do the same, but you have no guarantee it’s enough.
If bad actors have conditioned buyers to expect profits from tokens writ large, you may be stuck. And since every new wave of technology gets hijacked by bad actors like Sam Bankman-Fried, there will always be bad actors who condition buyers when capital formation is most important for driving society forward.
As a result of the U.S. paradox, firing Gensler might provide temporary relief, but it would not necessarily solve the problem — which is a lack of clarity and adaptability. There is no guarantee that Gensler’s replacement will necessarily reach a different conclusion.
The only comprehensive solution is new legislation that refines the U.S. definition of a security or carves out a separate framework for digital asset issuers and exchanges. Until we see serious efforts at that, a sword of Damocles will forever hang over the U.S. crypto space, always just one election or chair away from being cut.
This week, we take a closer look at Ethereum, Ripple, Cardano, Shiba Inu, and Polkadot.
Ethereum (ETH)
Ethereum finally woke up this week after testing the support at $2,800 and closed with a 7% price increase. Nevertheless, ETH made a new yearly low against Bitcoin.
The resistance is at $3,350 and if this momentum continues, it could be tested by the bulls in the coming days. Ideally, Ethereum will break higher soon and return on an uptrend.
Looking ahead, ETH could be making a local bottom at this price level, and a relief rally may start after a long correction that began in early March.
Ripple (XRP)
Ripple continued to range in a channel and closed the week with a 4% price increase. Buyers appear keen to test the key resistance at 54 cents. If they are successful at a breakout, then they could hope to see the price rally again.
The daily MACD has turned bullish in the past week, hinting that this cryptocurrency is ready to move higher. A decisive breakout above 54 cents is needed to confirm this.
Looking ahead, XRP has a real opportunity in the coming week to bring back volume and buyers. If successful, the next target will be found at 68 cents.
Cardano (ADA)
ADA finally broke the resistance at 46 cents and is currently looking primed to move towards 60 cents next. The price increased by 7.5% this week.
The 46 cents level was not yet confirmed as support and this could take place as buyers and sellers test their strength. The overall bias on this action is bullish, but continuation is needed to be confident ADA can move higher.
Looking ahead, the momentum favors bulls in the coming days, but don’t dismiss a possible pullback.
Shiba Inu (SHIB)
Shiba Inu mirrors the XRP chart and appears keen to break the resistance at $0.000025. If successful, then buyers can hope to see the price go towards $0.000030 next.
The price found good support at $0.000020 and managed to bring bulls back, but a clear breakout of the current resistance still needs to happen.
Looking ahead, the buy volume for SHIB has increased in the past few days, which suggests optimism that the next leg up could be about to start. Watch the key resistance for confirmation of a bullish bias.
Polkadot (DOT)
Polkadot remains in a range between $6.3 and $7.6. However, buyers seem to have the upper hand lately as the market is turning bullish. The price also closed the week with a 6% price increase.
On the daily timeframe, DOT did a MACD bullish cross in the past few days which has materialized with higher highs in price. The true test will be the resistance at $7.6 which is also the current target for this price action.
Looking ahead, DOT’s consolidation in this range could be coming to an end, and a clear breakout from this level may see the price approach double digits again later this month.
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Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.
TL;DR
- Santiment reports that Decentraland (MANA) leads in development activity among NFT-linked tokens.
- Although interest is returning, assets like Axie Infinity (AXS) remain well below their historical peak values, highlighting the ongoing volatility in the NFT market.
Here are the Leaders
Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) and cryptocurrencies related to them were a huge trend a few years ago. During the 2022-2023 bear market, their popularity declined, but recently, they started capturing the attention of industry participants again.
The crypto market intelligence platform – Santiment – outlined the top 10 NFT-linked tokens in terms of development activity in the last 30 days. Decentraland (MANA) leads the ranking with a ratio of 267.57. The second place belongs to Flow (FLOW) with 234.7, while Metaplex (MPLX) is third with 40.43.
Enjin Coin (ENJ), which witnessed a substantial trading volume increase in the past 24 hours, follows next with 14.97, whereas The Sandbox (SAND) rounds up the top 5 club with 14.9.
The Bottom of the List
While the sixth spot is held by a lesser-known cryptocurrency, Aavegotchi (GHST), this is not the case when observing the asset placed at number seven. This is Axie Infinity (AXS), the governance token of the eponymous gaming universe.
It is among the most-popular coins in the niche, with a current market capitalization of nearly $1 billion. Still, AXS is far from its glory days in November 2021 when its market cap surpassed the $10 billion mar and its price touched $160.
Monavale (MONA), NFTX (NFTX), and Punk (PUNK) are the NFT-related cryptocurrencies at the bottom of Santiment’s ranking.
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TL;DR
- XRP trades around $0.52, with some analysts predicting potential rises to $5.85, $18.22, and even up to $100, although extreme targets are unlikely.
- The ongoing lawsuit between Ripple and the SEC significantly affects the asset’s price, with the company’s partial court wins boosting optimism for a potential bull run.
The Odds of a Ridiculous XRP Rally
Despite a brief price surge above $0.70 in mid-March, Ripple’s XRP has not positioned itself among the best-performing cryptocurrencies this year. It currently trades at around $0.52 (per CoinGecko’s data), which is a minor increase compared to the figure witnessed a month ago.
Numerous analysts believe the asset can break out of its current price position and head toward somewhat outrageous targets. One example is the X user Dark Defender, who thinks XRP can rise to $5.85 and later to a whopping $18.22:
“As long as these are maintained, our 5 Elliott Wave structure targeting $5.85 & $18.22 remains the same. And any further moves between $0.3917 to $0.6649 are side moves and are normal.”
Earlier this year, the analyst set an ever more ambitious target of $20, while EGRAG CRYPTO warned the XRP army to “stay steady” since a price “ignition” might be on the horizon.
One of the most bullish price predictions this year was outlined by JackTheRippler, who forecasted an ascent to a whopping $100.
Still, none of the aforementioned can be compared to CryptoBull’s analysis from 2023. Back then, the X user suggested that XRP may skyrocket to a staggering $470 sometime in the future.
It is worth mentioning that this level would most likely remain a mirage since the asset’s market capitalization should explode above $200 trillion for this to happen. Currently, the entire market cap of the crypto industry stands at “just” $2.5 trillion.
The Impact of the Ripple v SEC Lawsuit
Many consider the lawsuit between the two entities a major factor contributing to XRP’s price movements. The case, which started in December 2020, recently entered its trial phase, and some view the US SEC as the underdog due to Ripple’s three partial court wins secured throughout 2023.
The legal battle has undergone numerous developments recently, and according to the American lawyer Jeremy Hogan, both parties now expect the judge’s ruling.
A decisive victory for Ripple may resonate into a bull run for XRP, while the opposite scenario could halt the asset’s upward movements as it did back in December 2020 when the agency initially went after the company. Those curious to learn more about the lawsuit and its specifics, please take a look at our dedicated video below:
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