As the crypto market continues to trade range-bound, the on-chain analytics firm Santiment has outlined key metrics that could help traders identify a market bottom. These indicators enable market participants to know when it is safe to inject more capital into their portfolio in anticipation of future rallies.

According to a Santiment report, the metrics include social trends, key stakeholder accumulation, a drop in Mean Dollar Invested Age, and social dominance fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) signals.

When Market Bottom?

The crypto community is constantly talking about coins and predicting which direction their prices are heading. Santiment said these social trends are significantly influenced by the momentum that markets have shown over a timeframe, so this makes traders’ decisions emotion-based on most occasions.

A slight drop in an asset’s price—bitcoin (BTC), for instance—could trigger a sudden bearish narrative, with social media posts depicting negative sentiment. The opposite is often seen after a sudden spike in a cryptocurrency’s value. Hence, traders can predict future price movements by paying attention to the vocal majority on social media.

While paying attention to social trends, the dominance of positive or negative commentaries could signal a good time to buy or sell. Santiment noted that a high level of fear or missing out (FOMO) would lead to prices topping soon; however, major FUD could lead to great bottoming opportunities.

As a result, projects with high levels of negative sentiment present good buying opportunities, as prices often move in the opposite direction of the crowd’s expectations.

Old Coins Returning to Circulation

As the crypto community often gets predictions wrong, whales move prices the way they fit due to their large capital, which controls the market. Santiment says traders should watch key stakeholders no matter what asset they are analyzing.

The best times to buy are when crypto prices drop, and whale wallets accumulate aggressively. When whales start accumulating, there is often a surge in transactions valued above $100,000 or $1 million, so Santiment insists a spike in large transaction volumes is often a bullish sign.

Finally, a decline in the Mean Dollar Invested Age also signals a market bottom. This metric tells the average of the dollars invested in an asset. When this indicator drops, it means that a healthy level of dormant tokens is returning to regular circulation, which could trigger a market rally.

Notably, the Mean Dollar Invested Age works in tandem with another metric, Age Consumed, which indicates the number of tokens changing addresses on a certain date multiplied by the last time they moved. A huge spike in Age Consumed helps predict market bottoms.

Despite a minor recovery this week, Bitcoin’s price continues to struggle well below $90,000. The crypto asset has been under tremendous market stress as traders remained cautious due to economic uncertainties.

However, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes that Bitcoin could surge to $250,000 by the end of 2025.

Bitcoin’s Push to $250,000

In his latest blog post, Hayes made a bold prediction while analysing a crucial shift in US monetary policy, where he believes the Federal Reserve will eventually cave to pressure and resume quantitative easing (QE) due to political and economic pressures. He argued that Bitcoin’s price will rise dramatically as the Fed reintroduces liquidity into the system, driven by its need to support the US economy.

Hayes specifically pointed to the Federal Reserve’s recent shift in stance regarding the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) and the overall balance sheet policy. He predicts that the central bank will grant an exemption for banks on the SLR, which will effectively allow them to hold more Treasury bonds without facing stricter capital requirements.

This, according to Hayes, will act as a form of Treasury QE, which will flood the market with liquidity.

The former CEO of BitMEX went on to draw on comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who hinted at the possibility of stopping the roll-off of assets from the Fed’s balance sheet, as well as a recent statement from Bessent about the impact of removing the SLR, which could lower treasury bill yields and boost liquidity by tens of billions of dollars.

Hayes’s analysis also addresses the potential inflationary impacts of proposed tariffs. While Powell has maintained that any tariff-induced inflation would be “transitory,” he argued that the Fed’s commitment to easing will remain firm, even if inflation spikes.

This belief in “transitory” inflation allows the central bank to continue its policies of monetary expansion without fear of long-term consequences, making it less concerned about the inflationary effects of tariffs on goods or services.

Bitcoin: “Anti-Establishment” Asset?

Further elaborating on the liquidity dynamics, the 40-year-old American entrepreneur noted that the US Treasury has already reduced its pace of quantitative tightening (QT) from $25 billion per month to just $5 billion post-April 1, which has created an annualized liquidity boost of $240 billion. He predicts this number could rise to $420 billion as the year progresses, which could essentially mean a shift toward more aggressive easing.

For Hayes, these conditions mirror those of the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC), where gold and other commodities outperformed traditional assets as the Fed’s liquidity injections began. While Bitcoin did not exist during the GFC, he believes it now serves as the “anti-establishment” asset, set to benefit from the same liquidity-driven tailwinds that propelled gold during the last crisis.

Hayes also doubled down on his $250,000 Bitcoin prediction while arguing that the Fed’s eventual return to QE will drive the cryptocurrency higher, as it thrives in environments of fiat currency debasement. He believes Bitcoin’s technology and its positioning as a store of value make it the ideal asset to capitalize on the flood of liquidity that he expects to come.

Despite acknowledging market risks, Hayes remains confident that Bitcoin’s value will soar as the Fed’s monetary policies align with his outlook for a higher price in the coming months.

TL;DR

• The broader crypto market has posted impressive gains over the past 24 hours, led by bitcoin’s surge past $85,000.
• However, PI continues to disappoint even in such more positive times, as its price is close to breaking below $0.7 after another minor daily decline.

As the graph above demonstrates, it has been nothing short but a volatile downfall for PI, which was released to the public and for global trading just over a month ago. The asset peaked in late February, but has dumped by more than 75% since the $3 all-time high.

Despite some promising developments on the Pi Network front, such as verification process updates, the native cryptocurrency has failed to recapture its momentum and is down by 3.5% in the past day.

This is particularly disappointing given the fact that almost all other crypto assets have marked gains within the same period. Bitcoin surpassed $85,000 for the first time since Friday, ETH is above $1,900, while DOGE and ADA have jumped by over 4% daily.

Nevertheless, Pi Network’s community, which has grown exponentially in the past several years when the project was still under development, remains bullish despite the negative price performance as of late.

Numerous X users predicted that its price could bounce-off the current $0.7 support and head toward $2 once “the market volume returns.” MOON JEFF was even more bullish for PI’s short-term price movements, indicating that it could go to $2.73 by the end of the month.