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Bitcoin analysis agrees BTC price may stall at $35K

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Bitcoin (BTC) bulls face a tough task to bring BTC price action past $35,000, fresh analysis predicts.

In its latest market update on July 5, trading firm QCP Capital flagged the mid-$30,000 range as a potential cooling-off point for the Bitcoin bull market.

Bitcoin homes in on post-FTX rally peak

With BTC price stagnating around $30,000, concerns are mounting that the majority of its gains have already materialized.

The area between $35,000 and $40,000 is now particularly popular among market participants seeking to catch a local top, and QCP is one of them.

“Tactically (short-term), our favoured trade to play this is selling end-Sep 33k to 35k calls, and using the premiums to buy 30k puts,” it summarized about its plans for H2 trading.

QCP highlighted incoming resistance for the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) indicator — designed to measure price strength at given levels during a market trend — at $35,000.

“The top-side levels work well as any rally from here would be considered the ending 5th wave from the November FTX lows,” it continued.

“The 33-35k level is also where we see wedge resistance as well as MACD hitting 3-year triangle resistance.”

BTC/USD charts with MACD triangle. Source: QCP Capital

The update also referenced a cooling macroeconomic environment potentially offering few volatility cues for markets.

The United States Federal Reserve remains hawkish, and officials have maintained that further interest rate hikes will come this year despite inflation showing a consistent downtrend.

“On the macro side, the Fed looks locked into another hike this month (although this is largely priced by markets), and inflation appears likely to stagnate around 3-4% until year-end, with positive base effects from the oil price decline ending this quarter, and high frequency rent prices turning back up,” it explained.

“This means that while falling inflation has been getting the market excited, for the Fed with their 2% inflation target blinkers on – its close but probably still not enough for rate cuts.”

When it comes to the principal catalyst for BTC price strength over the past month — the potential U.S. approval of the first Bitcoin spot-based exchange-traded fund (ETF) — there is likewise no imminent decision due, QCP added.

$30 million Binance ask sparks concerns

Elsewhere, traders on the day continually raised the possibility of a fresh BTC price correction.

Related: Bitcoin analyst flags $32.5K launchpad zone for BTC price

William Clemente, a co-founder of Reflexivity Research, revealed data showing that futures traders were far from universally bullish on Bitcoin.

Keith Alan, a co-founder of monitoring resource Material Indicators, said he was “expecting a pullback” as a new block of resistance appeared on the Binance order book at $36,000.

“Not sure bulls will make it to $36k, but don’t think this rally is over yet. I could be wrong. Watching charts for clues,“ part of the commentary stated alongside a chart showing the $30 million ask wall.

BTC/USD order book data on Binance. Source: Keith Alan/Twitter

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD trading near $30,800 at the time of writing.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Magazine: How smart people invest in dumb memecoins: 3-point plan for success

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Cryptocurrency

Aleph Zero Launches Subsecond Shielding on Testnet, Delivering Client-Side ZK Privacy for DeFi

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[PRESS RELEASE – Zug, Switzerland, October 17th, 2024]

Most zero-knowledge proofs are generated server-side for scaling, but Aleph Zero’s zkOS does that directly on users’ devices, offering privacy in a fraction of second.

Aleph Zero, the leading blockchain platform recognized for its focus on privacy and scalability, announces the launch of the first feature of zkOS (zero-knowledge operating system)—Shielding, on its EVM Testnet. This release marks the first opportunity for users to experience the shielding feature of zkOS in action, demonstrating the speed and privacy capabilities of Aleph Zero’s zero-knowledge proof (ZK) technology optimizations.

Privacy at Lightning Speed

The Shielding Demo release is a significant milestone for Aleph Zero, representing its commitment to developing practical privacy solutions for the blockchain industry. Aleph Zero’s zkOS enables zero-knowledge proofs to be generated client-side—meaning data is encrypted locally on the user’s device and never leaves unencrypted—providing high levels of privacy without compromising transaction speed. The Shielding Demo serves as the first practical interface for users to experience this privacy functionality, with zero-knowledge proofs generated within 0.5-3 seconds, ensuring that privacy has minimal impact on transaction performance.

“Privacy has long been a challenge in blockchain, often due to poor user experience,” said Adam Gagol, Co-Founder & CTO of Aleph Zero. “With today’s release, we’re delivering one of the fastest client-side ZK directly to users, combining privacy and performance. The release of the Shielding Demo offers a glimpse into how zkOS can bring privacy to DeFi without sacrificing speed or usability.”

How the Shielding Demo Works

The Shielding Demo provides an intuitive interface for users to test Aleph Zero’s zkOS privacy layer. Here’s how it works:

  • Data Privacy: zkOS generates zero-knowledge proofs locally on the user’s device, ensuring that data remains private and secure.
  • Transaction Flow: Users generate ZK proofs, send transactions to a relayer, and then they are executed on-chain—all while maintaining privacy.
  • Fast Proving Times: The system delivers ZK proofs in 0.5-3 seconds on most devices, demonstrating zkOS’s speed and its minimal impact on transaction times.

The Testnet version of zkOS allows users to interact with the system and witness its capabilities, though Aleph Zero notes that the privacy features will be built directly into the upcoming Common app.

Why zkOS Matters: A Glimpse Into the Future

The launch of the Shielding Demo on Testnet is only the beginning. Aleph Zero’s roadmap for zkOS extends far beyond this initial release, with ongoing work on simplifying the user experience and the introduction of additional privacy features, such as ZK-ID and anonymity revokers, to ensure both privacy and protection against fraudulent use of the platform.

The system is designed to be easily integrated by developers, providing a privacy framework that requires minimal cryptographic knowledge. This simplicity, combined with Aleph Zero’s rapid client-side ZK proof generation, makes zkOS a critical tool for developers building privacy-centric applications across DeFi and other web3 sectors.

Unlocking Privacy for New Use Case

The privacy space in blockchain has been facing increased challenges, such as regulatory scrutiny and delistings, often due to concerns over non-compliance. Aleph Zero’s zkOS offers a fresh approach by delivering privacy solutions that balance user confidentiality with regulatory requirements. Instead of focusing solely on anonymity, zkOS is designed to meet both the needs of users and the evolving demands of compliance.

zkOS enables users to manage their assets securely across multiple blockchains, ensuring their transactions remain private. Unlike traditional privacy methods that rely on centralized or hardware-based systems, zkOS operates directly on the client-side, safeguarding privacy without external dependencies.

Next Steps for Aleph Zero

As the Testnet release progresses, Aleph Zero is focusing on refining Shielding and zkOS for its Mainnet deployment. Users who engage with the Shielding Demo will have the opportunity to be whitelisted for upcoming zkOS Beta testing on Aleph Zero’s EVM Mainnet.

About Aleph Zero

Aleph Zero is an ecosystem of blockchain solutions that are engineered for speed, data confidentiality, and ease of development. It achieves efficiencies akin to conventional web2 systems, upholds rigorous standards for data protection via zero-knowledge proofs (ZKP), and offers a comprehensive toolset for development across web3, ranging from WASM-based Rust to EVM-based Solidity environments. Aleph Zero’s versatility is highlighted by over 40 use cases being actively developed, showcasing its adaptability across various sectors and applications. These use cases are part of an engaged community and growing ecosystem of web3 applications supported by Aleph Zero programs.

For more information, visit https://alephzero.org/.

For any inquiries about this release, please contact josh@serotonin.co or ana@serotonin.co.

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BlackRock’s Spot Bitcoin ETF Records Largest Inflow Since July with $393.4M

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BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF, iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), experienced a massive net inflow of $393.40 million on October 16th.

According to data from SoSoValue, this figure represents the largest influx since July 22, when IBIT saw $526.7 million in new investments.

Spot Bitcoin ETF Market Gains Momentum

The spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total net inflow of $458.54 million on Wednesday. While BlackRock’s IBIT led the charge, Fidelity’s FBTC followed suit with $14.81 million, while Bitwise’s BITB saw $12.93 million on the same day.

Franklin Templeton’s EZBC recorded $11.79 million, and Ark and 21Shares’ ARKB saw $11.51 million in inflows. Other funds, such as Invesco’s BTCO, attracted $6.43 million, and VanEck’s HODL garnered $5.75 million. Valkyrie’s BRRR, too, recorded a minor inflow of $1.92 million.

Notably, Grayscale’s GBTC, WisdomTree’s BTCW, and Hashdex’s DEFI reported no inflows, and no outflows were recorded across any spot Bitcoin ETFs for the day.

Over the past week, BTC’s price has climbed nearly 11% and is currently trading above $67,000. The recent price rally coincided with the increasing inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US. Interestingly, the total assets under management (AUM) for all US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs have risen to $64.46 billion at today’s valuations after skyrocketing to a four-month high.

The heightened investor interest comes at a critical phase, especially with the upcoming U.S. presidential election approaching. The stakes for the crypto industry are escalating, and prediction markets indicate increased odds for Republican candidate and crypto supporter Donald Trump to win against his Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris.

As reported earlier, this pivot toward Republican prospects has created a bullish sentiment in the market, thereby driving inflows.

Whale Transfers Coincide with Social Media Shift Toward Bitcoin

Whale transactions in Bitcoin also reached the highest levels in over ten weeks, with 11,697 transfers valued at over $100,000 recorded on October 15. The following day, signs of increased whale activity also showed.

Additionally, social media content has predominantly focused on Bitcoin, making up more than a quarter of all discussions, as opposed to altcoins.

According to Santiment, these factors pointed to the possibility that the rally could be temporarily stalled due to profit-taking by significant players and intense crowd FOMO. Despite this, the crypto analytic platform added that long-term metrics are looking positive, suggesting that any decline may be short-lived.

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This Declining Major Bitcoin Metric Hints at Upcoming BTC Bull Run: Details

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TL;DR

  • Bitcoin soared to around $67,400, with some metrics suggesting potential for further gains.
  • However, some bearish signals, such as an overvalued MVRV ratio and overbought RSI, indicate a possible price pullback.

BTC Price Explosion Incoming?

The price of the leading cryptocurrency surged by over eight grand in the past week, currently trading at around $67,400 (per CoinGecko’s data). The rally fueled huge enthusiasm among BTC proponents, many of whom assumed that “Uptober” was finally here.

BTC Price
BTC Price, Source: CoinGecko

Some important indicators signal that the asset has yet to witness substantial gains. One example is the BTC supply stored on exchanges, which, according to X user Ali Martinez, has tumbled to a five-year low. 

Such a development is generally considered bullish since it suggests that holders might be shifting from centralized platforms to self-custody methods (which reduces the immediate selling pressure). Moreover, fundamental economic principles dictate that BTC’s price should head north if demand remains constant or increases while the available supply drops.

A metric hinting that BTC could be ahead of a more volatile period is the growing Open Interest. As CryptoPotato reported on October 15, the figure reached an all-time high of $19.8 billion. It kept rising in the following hours, surpassing $20 billion on October 16 (per CryptoQuant’s data).

The rise of OI is combined with BTC funding rates that have hit their highest positive levels in the past two months. This indicates that most of the open interest is comprised of long positions, which, combined with the growing demand reported by CryptoQuant’s CEO, reaffirms the narrative about a potential rally. 

Some Bearish Factors

Contrary to the aforementioned indicators suggesting that the primary cryptocurrency could experience another bullish momentum soon, some hint at the opposite scenario.

BTC’s MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value), for instance, has been gradually increasing in the past week, crossing the critical ratio of 2. Readings above that mark typically show that the asset could be overvalued and poised for a pullback.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is next on the list. This technical analysis tool measures the speed and change of price movements and is commonly used to identify overbought or oversold conditions. When the ratio is above 70, it indicates that BTC is in overbought territory, meaning a correction could be imminent. The RSI has been hovering above that level in the past three days. 

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