XRP has been consolidating against both BTC and USDT after a period of strong volatility, finding support above key moving averages while remaining below major resistance levels.

By Edris Derakhshi

The USDT Paired Chart

On the XRP/USDT daily chart, the price is sitting just above the 200-day moving average and a critical horizontal support around the $2.00 zone. This level has acted as a battleground in recent weeks, as the asset has tested it multiple times.

The RSI is also hovering near the 50% level, reflecting the current equilibrium between buyers and sellers. A decisive close above the $2.5 area could open the door to a retest of the $3 level, while a breakdown below $2.00 would likely drag price back toward the $1.40 support level.

The BTC Paired Chart

Looking at the XRP/BTC pair, the structure reflects a broader sideways market, with multiple failed attempts to push above the 2,800 SAT zone. The price has made a series of lower highs recently, signaling some relative weakness against Bitcoin.

However, the 200-day moving average is creeping up toward the 2,200 SAT support area, offering a key level to monitor for trend confirmation. A clean breakout above the 2,800 SAT zone would mark the start of bullish momentum, while losing the 2,200 SAT level could lead to a deeper retracement toward the 1,800 SAT region or even lower.

Bitcoin is pressing against key resistance levels again, showing resilience after a deep March correction. While price structure is stabilizing, miner behavior and overall momentum suggest the next directional move could be decisive. Here’s a fresh breakdown using the daily chart, 4H trendline, and the miner reserve metric.

Technical Analysis

By Edris Derakhshi

The Daily Chart

On the daily chart, BTC is holding just below the 200-day moving average, located around $88K, after its mid-March dip toward $74,000. Price action remains trapped between $80K support and the 200-day moving average, forming a compression range.

The RSI also hovers near the neutral 50 level, signaling indecision. While the recent bounce is constructive, buyers must push through the $88K barrier to shift the structure bullish again. Until then, the price remains vulnerable to further consolidation within this macro range.

The 4-Hour Chart

The 4-hour chart shows BTC breaking out from a well-defined descending trendline, which had acted as dynamic resistance for over a month. This breakout now has multiple confirmations, with price consolidating just above the trendline.

Momentum has cooled slightly, as reflected in RSI flattening, but the higher-low structure remains intact. A sustained move above the $86K–$88K range could trigger an acceleration towards the $92K resistance level, while any drop back below $83K could reintroduce downside pressure toward the $80K support zone.

On-Chain Analysis

By Edris Derakhshi

Exchange Reserve

Bitcoin miner reserves continue to decline steadily, now at their lowest level in years. This suggests consistent miner distribution, which historically reflects profit-taking behavior, especially during strong rallies.

While declining miner reserves can reduce long-term sell pressure if BTC is sold slowly, sharp drops in reserves, especially during local price peaks, can mark distribution phases. For now, the trend indicates miners aren’t hoarding, so buyers must rely more on spot-driven demand and institutional accumulation to keep momentum alive. Yet, a reversal in this trend could add fuel to any upside breakout.

Following a sharp rebound from the recent low around $75,000 last week, traders are now speculating whether Bitcoin might be preparing to break its long downtrend.

The shift in sentiment has prompted renewed optimism, with many watching closely for signs of a potential trend reversal. However, data depict investors’ hesitation in a volatile market climate.

Bitcoin Growth Softens

Glassnode’s latest analysis reveals that Bitcoin’s realized cap has surged to a record high of $872 billion, despite a modest monthly growth of around 0.9%. This signals continued capital inflows but reflects a cooling investor appetite, indicative of a risk-off sentiment prevailing in the market.

The blockchain intelligence firm explained that in a difficult market environment, steady inflows into Bitcoin are impressive. Despite this, the declining rate of new capital suggests investors are hesitant to commit more funds right now and signals that cautious, risk-averse behavior will likely dominate in the near future.

Additionally, the Realized Profit and Loss, adjusted for volatility, shows an almost equal distribution, which points to saturation in investor activity. Interestingly, this pattern often precedes a consolidation phase. The market appears to be seeking a new equilibrium.

Furthermore, Bitcoin’s volatility-adjusted Net Realized Profit/Loss has returned to its long-term median, a level historically associated with transitions between bull and bear markets. This places Bitcoin at a crucial moment, with market direction hanging in the balance.

Volatility Strikes Bitcoin Again

While Bitcoin has shown impressive resilience, Glassnode stated that the cryptocurrency has not escaped the intense volatility rippling through global markets as it suffered its largest decline of the 2023-2025 cycle.

This correction has hit newer investors hardest, as they now account for the bulk of unrealized losses. But long-term holders appear largely unaffected by current economic pressures.

“From an individual investor perspective, the market has endured far more severe drawdowns in prior cycles, notably during the May 2021 and 2022 bear markets. In addition, mature and tenured investors remain unfazed by the ongoing economic stress, and reside in a position of near unilateral profitability.”