Forex
Dollar eases after strong labor market reports
© Reuters. U.S. dollar banknotes are displayed in this illustration taken, February 14, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration
By Herbert Lash
NEW YORK (Reuters) -The dollar eased after a brief rebound on Thursday as data showing the U.S. labor market remains strong increased chances the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates later this month.
Private payrolls surged in June in the biggest rise since February 2022, an ADP National Employment report showed, while the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose moderately last week, the Labor Department said.
Later, a survey by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed the U.S. services sector grew faster than expected in June as new orders picked up, adding to data indicating a resilient economy in the face of tighter monetary policy.
“This strong data today has a lot more of a ‘good news is bad news’ type feel to it,” said Brian Daingerfield, head of G10 FX strategy at NatWest Markets in Stamford, Connecticut.
“Take it together with how equity markets have responded, that gives a clear picture of the dollar today. Call it a risk-off style move, where the Fed is going to be tightening more and that has negative repercussions for risk.”
Futures markets raised the probability of the Fed hiking interest rates by 25 basis points to 92.4% when policymakers conclude a two-day meeting on July 26, the CME Group’s (NASDAQ:) FedWatch Tool showed.
The yield on two-year Treasuries rose above 5% to their highest in 16 years, while U.S. stocks tumbled on the outlook that rates will stay higher for longer.
The , measuring the U.S. currency against six others including the euro and Japan’s yen, fell 0.18% to 103.13.
ISM showed a measure of prices paid by businesses fell to more than a three-year low, suggesting inflation would continue to cool, but Fed officials again signaled higher rates ahead.
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said she was very concerned “whether inflation will return to target in a sustainable and timely way.”
The major central banks for the most part are fine-tuning monetary policy, and it is unclear when they will act as they alternate between hiking and pausing interest rates, said Brad Bechtel, global head of FX at Jefferies.
“Given all these central banks are more or less in the same place in some way, shape or form, the dollar’s going have a hard time” moving too much one way or the other, he said.
The safe-haven Japanese yen strengthened 0.39% versus the greenback at 144.09 as concerns about the global growth outlook, resulting from the aggressive monetary tightening by major central banks, weighed on risk appetite.
ONE DIMENSIONAL
The pound hit two-week highs against the euro and dollar as financial markets bet the Bank of England will raise rates to 6.5% early next year, pushing the yield on the two-year UK government bond to its highest since June 2008.
“The FX market is taking more of a ‘one-dimensional approach’ to trading the British disease,” said Stephen Gallo, global FX strategist at BMO Capital Markets.
“Instead of selling GBP in anticipation of an economic slowdown, it is buying GBP on the basis of interest rate differentials,” Gallo said.
The last traded down slightly at 7.2575 per dollar in the offshore market, a day after falling about 0.4%. The central bank set a stronger-than-expected midpoint fixing for the fourth straight day this week, which traders believe is an attempt to prevent the yuan from weakening too fast and too far. [CNY/]
hit a 13-month high of $31,500, continuing to find support due to recent plans by fund managers to launch a U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).
Currency bid prices at 3:37 p.m. (1937 GMT)
Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid
Previous Change
Session
Dollar index 103.1300 103.3400 -0.18% -0.348% +103.5700 +102.9100
Euro/Dollar $1.0884 $1.0853 +0.29% +1.58% +$1.0901 +$1.0834
Dollar/Yen 144.0850 144.6650 -0.39% +9.91% +144.6500 +143.5600
Euro/Yen 156.82 157.00 -0.11% +11.77% +157.0600 +155.8500
Dollar/Swiss 0.8957 0.8988 -0.32% -3.10% +0.8997 +0.8951
Sterling/Dollar $1.2740 $1.2703 +0.30% +5.35% +$1.2780 +$1.2674
Dollar/Canadian 1.3364 1.3285 +0.60% -1.36% +1.3370 +1.3276
Aussie/Dollar $0.6625 $0.6654 -0.41% -2.79% +$0.6688 +$0.6599
Euro/Swiss 0.9747 0.9755 -0.08% -1.50% +0.9766 +0.9738
Euro/Sterling 0.8543 0.8542 +0.01% -3.40% +0.8563 +0.8521
NZ Dollar/Dollar $0.6158 $0.6179 -0.31% -2.98% +$0.6219 +$0.6133
Dollar/Norway 10.7670 10.6820 +0.81% +9.73% +10.8250 +10.6520
Euro/Norway 11.7224 11.5894 +1.15% +11.71% +11.7392 +11.5690
Dollar/Sweden 10.9433 10.9373 +0.36% +5.15% +10.9906 +10.9223
Euro/Sweden 11.9064 11.8636 +0.36% +6.79% +11.9409 +11.8712
Forex
Asia FX firm, dollar drifts lower with Fed rate cut in sight
Investing.com– Most Asian currencies firmed on Wednesday, while the dollar retreated as markets positioned for a widely expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve later in the day.
Market holidays in Hong Kong and South Korea limited overall volumes, while the Chinese yuan weakened as onshore trade resumed after an extended break.
The Japanese yen was the best performer in Asia as it rebounded sharply from some overnight losses against the greenback. The yen remained in sight of 2024 peaks hit earlier this week, with a Bank of Japan meeting on tap later this week.
Dollar muted, Fed rate cut in focus
The and both fell 0.1% each in Asian trade before the conclusion of a two-day later in the day.
The greenback found some strength on Tuesday after stronger-than-expected data, although it still retained most of its recent losses.
The dollar was pressured chiefly by expectations that the Fed will enact its first interest rate cut in over four years on Wednesday, likely signaling the start of an easing cycle that could see rates fall by at least 100 basis points by the end of 2024.
But markets were somewhat split over just by how much the Fed will cut rates. Traders were seen pricing in a 64% chance for a 50 basis point cut and a 36% chance for a 25 bps cut, showed.
Recent signs of resilience in the U.S. economy- as seen with strong retail sales and inflation data- could give the Fed less impetus to cut rates sharply. But on the other hand, recent signs of weakness in the labor market could push the Fed into enacting deeper cuts.
Still, the prospect of lower rates bodes well for high-yielding, high-risk currencies in Asia, and is likely to spur capital flows into the sector in the coming months.
Japanese yen strong, BOJ in focus
The Japanese yen was the best performer in Asian trade, as it recovered from losses logged on Tuesday. The pair fell 0.7% to 141.36 yen, remaining in sight of an over nine-month low hit earlier this week.
The yen was buoyed by expectations that the BOJ will strike a hawkish note when it , although analysts are uncertain whether it will hike interest rates again.
Still, a slew of BOJ officials signaled plans to raise rates further in tandem with higher inflation.
Japanese is also due on Friday.
Broader Asian currencies drifted higher in anticipation of the Fed decision. The Australian dollar’s pair rose 0.1%, while the Singapore dollar’s pair fell 0.2%.
The Chinese yuan’s pair rose 0.1% as onshore trade resumed after a long weekend, with sentiment towards China pressured by a string of weak economic readings for August.
The Indian rupee’s pair hovered around 83.773 rupees, having pulled back further from record highs hit earlier in September.
Forex
US dollar strengthens ahead of expected Fed rate cut
By Chibuike Oguh
NEW YORK (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar strengthened against most major currencies on Tuesday following better-than-expected retail sales data that seemed to support a less aggressive stance by the Federal Reserve, which is widely expected to deliver its first interest rate cut in more than four years.
Commerce Department data showed on Tuesday that U.S. retail sales unexpectedly rose 0.1% in August, suggesting that the economy remained on solid footing through much of the third quarter.
The Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee will give its interest rate decision at the conclusion of its meeting on Wednesday after which Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference. The last Fed rate cut was in March 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic.
“I think like all the markets at this point are hostage to this FOMC meeting tomorrow,” said Marvin Loh, senior global market strategist at State Street (NYSE:) in Boston.
“Retail sales were okay. It certainly doesn’t show that there should be an imminent rush to have supersized cuts and it would be somewhat unprecedented for the Fed to really panic in rate cuts given where the market is at this point.”
Against the yen, the dollar rose 0.87% to 141.830 after initially weakening following the retail sales data.
The euro was down 0.10% to $1.112125, not far from the year’s high of $1.1201. Against the Swiss franc, the dollar was up 0.15% to 0.8460.
The , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, gained 0.199% at 100.90.
Fed funds futures show the chance of a 50 basis point rate cut stood at 63%, against 30% a week ago, while the chances of a 25 basis point cut was at 37%. The odds have narrowed sharply after media reports revived the prospect of a more aggressive easing.
Other economic data on Wednesday appeared to provide support for the Fed to be less aggressive in cutting rates. U.S. business inventories, a key component of gross domestic product, posted a better-than-expected gain of 0.3% in July while factory output rebounded in August.
“Overall, the market is pricing in numerous rate cuts over the next several months and there are those voices that suggest that maybe the market has gotten ahead of itself,” said Axel Merk, president and chief investment officer at Merk Investments in Pal Alto, California.
The Bank of Japan is expected to keep policy steady on Friday but signal that further interest rate hikes are coming, perhaps turning the next meeting in October into a live one.
The Bank of England is also expected to retain interest rates at 5% when it meets on Thursday, although markets have priced in a nearly 36% chance of another cut.
Sterling – the best performing G10 currency this year with a 3.41% rise on the dollar – has risen thanks to signs of resilience in Britain’s economy and stickiness in inflation. It was last down 0.37% at $1.31665.
Chinese markets are closed for the Mid-Autumn Festival break until Wednesday, though the yuan was up 0.16% at 7.1090 in offshore trade.
The Canadian dollar was up 0.04% at $1.35935. The Australian and New Zealand dollars bought $0.67595 and $0.61900 respectively.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin gained 5.00% to $60,544.00. rose 3.29% to $2,349.00.
Currency bid prices at 17
September 06:54 p.m. GMT
Description RIC Last U.S. Close Previous Session Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid
Dollar index 100.91 100.7 0.21% -0.45% 101 100.56
Euro/Dollar 1.1121 1.1133 -0.11% 0.75% $1.1146 $1.1111
Dollar/Yen 141.87 140.59 0.91% 0.59% 141.93 140.36
Euro/Yen 1.1121 156.53 0.79% 1.38% 157.87 156.06
Dollar/Swiss 0.8461 0.8449 0.15% 0.53% 0.8478 0.843
Sterling/Dollar 1.3163 1.3216 -0.4% 3.44% $1.3229 $1.3147
Dollar/Canadian 1.3593 1.3587 0.06% 2.55% 1.3617 1.3581
Aussie/Dollar 0.6756 0.6752 0.07% -0.9% $0.6769 $0.6742
Euro/Swiss 0.9409 0.9403 0.06% 1.32% 0.9422 0.9383
Euro/Sterling 0.8447 0.8423 0.28% -2.55% 0.8454 0.8419
NZ Dollar/Dollar 0.6186 0.6201 -0.21% -2.07% $0.6211 0.6179
Dollar/Norway 10.5965 10.5865 0.09% 4.55% 10.623 10.5601
Euro/Norway 11.7859 11.786 0% 5.01% 11.8099 11.7553
Dollar/Sweden 10.1823 10.1687 0.13% 1.15% 10.2075 10.1504
Euro/Sweden 11.3252 11.322 0.03% 1.8% 11.3465 11.306
Forex
Will the dollar smile on a 25 bps cut, Morgan Stanley asks
Investing.com – The U.S. dollar has been hit hard by expectations that the Federal Reserve will start its rate-cutting cycle this week with a hefty 50 basis-point reduction, but this raises the possibility of a bounce should a smaller cut occur, according to Morgan Stanley.
The U.S. central bank starts its latest policy-setting meeting later in the session, amid growing expectations that the will cut interest rates by a hefty 50 basis points at the conclusion of a meeting on Wednesday.
Traders are pricing in a 68% chance for a 50 bps cut and a 32% chance for a 25 bps cut, CME Fedwatch showed.
This has resulted in the U.S. dollar falling to its lowest levels this year.
“Our U.S. economists remain unconvinced that a 50bp cut is likely,” said analysts at Morgan Stanley, in a note dated Sept. 16. “They expect an unanimous decision to cut rates by 25bp, with the dot plot shifting down to show a total of 75bp worth of rate cuts by the end of 2024, versus market pricing of ~115-120bp.”
The bank’s US economists also “do not expect the Chair to give specific guidance of the pace of the cutting cycle … and likely remain data dependent, indicating that future decisions will be a function of the available data.”
This outcome suggests that the Fed may not believe that the currently available data warrant a pace of easing any faster than 25bp per meeting.
“That interpretation will likely push USD up broadly in the short term, immediately after the meeting,” the bank added.
However, beyond the knee-jerk reaction, we could see a split in USD performance, with the heading lower but USD heading up versus emerging market and commodity currencies.
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