Forex
Dollar tumbles to two-month low; pound hits 15-month high after wage growth data
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. dollars are counted out by a banker counting currency at a bank in Westminster, Colorado November 3, 2009. REUTERS/Rick Wilking/File Photo
By Samuel Indyk and Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
LONDON/NEW YORK (Reuters) – The dollar dropped to a two-month low against a major currency index, after Federal Reserve officials signalled that the central bank is near the end of its tightening cycle, while sterling hit a 15-month high after pay growth exceeded expectations.
Against the yen, the dollar fell to a four-week trough of 140.17. It last traded down 0.4% at 140.75 yen. The U.S. currency also plunged to its lowest in two-and-a-half years versus the Swiss franc and was last at 0.8829 francs, down 0.2%.
Several Fed officials said on Monday the central bank would likely need to raise interest rates further to bring down inflation but the end to its current monetary policy tightening cycle was getting close.
The comments knocked the greenback to a two-month low of 101.66 against a basket of currencies, as traders pared back their expectations about how much further U.S. rates may have to rise. The was last slightly down at 101.89.
“The broad takeaway from yesterday’s slate of speakers is that the Fed is essentially on auto-pilot ahead of its July meeting – and with a string of other releases set to drop between now and Jackson Hole, this has meant that the relative importance of tomorrow’s consumer price report is being downplayed on currency markets,” said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist, at Corpay in Toronto.
Markets are now focusing their attention on U.S. consumer prices data due out on Wednesday, which will provide more clarity on the progress the Fed has made in its fight against stubbornly high inflation.
“Market participants should remember that U.S. data releases still have the capacity to shock: if the core or ‘supercore’ inflation measures surprise to the upside, front-end yields could leg higher once again, and the dollar might stage a surprising rebound,” Schamotta added.
EUROPEAN CURRENCIES STRENGTHEN
Sterling hit a near 15-month high of $1.2934 after British wage growth hit a joint record high, heaping pressure on the Bank of England to tighten policy further to bring inflation under control. It was last up 0.2% at $1.2891.
The pound has been rallying on a stronger economy and aggressive repricing of expectations for tighter BoE policy, according to Danske Bank FX analyst Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen.
The euro rose to two-month peaks of $1.1027, and last changed hands at $1.096, down 0.1%.
Other European currencies were also strong, with the Norwegian crown hitting a near three-month high the Swedish crown at a two-week peak against the dollar.
At its June meeting, the Swiss National Bank reiterated it was ready to intervene in the FX market to boost the value of the franc and reduce the effect of more expensive imports.
In Japan, the yen has risen more than 3% from a seven-month low touched last month, when it weakened past the closely watched 145 per dollar level that put traders on high alert for possible intervention from Japanese authorities.
Elsewhere, the Australian dollar eased 0.2% to US$0.6662, while the New Zealand currency was down 0.5% to US$0.6181 ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy decision on Wednesday.
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Currency bid prices at 9:42AM (1342 GMT)
Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid
Previous Change
Session
Dollar index 101.8900 101.9200 -0.01% -1.546% +101.9600 +101.6600
Euro/Dollar $1.0985 $1.1001 -0.14% +2.53% +$1.1027 +$1.0977
Dollar/Yen 140.8100 141.3150 -0.35% +7.40% +141.4550 +140.1700
Euro/Yen 154.67 155.45 -0.50% +10.24% +155.6700 +154.1900
Dollar/Swiss 0.8830 0.8854 -0.27% -4.50% +0.8856 +0.8813
Sterling/Dollar $1.2899 $1.2860 +0.30% +6.66% +$1.2934 +$1.2858
Dollar/Canadian 1.3274 1.3280 -0.04% -2.03% +1.3289 +1.3246
Aussie/Dollar $0.6654 $0.6677 -0.32% -2.37% +$0.6695 +$0.6653
Euro/Swiss 0.9698 0.9737 -0.40% -1.99% +0.9753 +0.9687
Euro/Sterling 0.8514 0.8553 -0.46% -3.73% +0.8562 +0.8505
NZ $0.6170 $0.6212 -0.65% -2.80% +$0.6224 +$0.6171
Dollar/Dollar
Dollar/Norway 10.4100 10.4770 -0.73% +5.98% +10.4790 +10.4000
Euro/Norway 11.4283 11.5250 -0.84% +8.91% +11.5385 +11.4222
Dollar/Sweden 10.6845 10.7481 -0.74% +2.66% +10.7604 +10.6693
Euro/Sweden 11.7385 11.8255 -0.74% +5.28% +11.8415 +11.7266
Forex
Dollar now priced for perfection – BoA Securities
Investing.com – The US dollar has rallied strongly since the US Presidential election, from an already high level, and Bank of America Securities sees the currency now priced to perfection.
In real effective terms, BoA estimated that the dollar ended 2024 at a 55-year high, following the longest uptrend in recent decades, which started in mid-2011.
“The USD has also reached extreme levels in nominal terms. Using the BIS NEER broad index (nominal effective exchange rate), the USD is the strongest it has been in the last 30 years, which is when the time series started,” said analysts at BoA Securities, in a note dated Jan. 8.
The dollar appears overvalued by 18.5%, the most in the last 30 years except when it was overvalued by 19% during the energy shocks from the war in Ukraine in 2022, the bank said.
Its overvaluation increased by about 6.4% since the end of Q3 last year, to a large extent because of the US election. By comparison, it was overvalued only by 9.4% at the end of 2016, after Trump won his first US election.
Looking at G10 equilibrium estimates, the USD clearly stands out as the most overvalued – followed by CHF, with JPY and the Scandies being the most undervalued.
“We expect the USD to remain strong in the short term on the back of US inflationary policies, and particularly tariffs, but to weaken later in the year, as these policies take a toll on the US economy while the rest of the world responds. Policy uncertainty makes our baseline subject to substantial risks,” said BoA Securities.
Forex
Dollar boosted by rising Treasury yields; euro slips on weak data
Investing.com – The US dollar rose Wednesday, benefiting from rising bond yields after the release of healthy US economic data, while weak German industrial orders weighed on the euro.
At 04:35 ET (09:35 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.3% higher to 108.690.
Dollar gains as Treasury yields soar
The dollar has continued to push ahead Wednesday, following on from the prior session’s positive tone after data showed US unexpectedly rose in November, layoffs were low, while services sector activity accelerated in December and a measure of prices paid for inputs hit a two-year high.
This resulted in 10-year Treasury yields climbing to an eight-month high, while the benchmark 30-year yield came close to the 5% level.
“Yesterday’s US data releases were hawkish for the Fed, and the implied probability of a March rate cut has now dropped below 40%,” said analysts at ING, in a note.
“The most remarkable print was the ISM prices paid subcomponent, which spiked to the highest level since January 2023. If a generally resilient economy was already accounted for when the Fed met in December, a resurgence in inflation concerns could drive an even further hawkish tuning in the policy message.”
The Federal Reserve cut the number of rate cuts it sees this year to two at its December meeting, but traders are now only pricing in around 37 bps of easing through this year, according to LSEG data.
There is more data to digest Wednesday, in the form of the monthly and weekly , ahead of Friday’s release of the closely watched US for further clarity on the health of the world’s largest economy.
German economic weakness weighs on euro
In Europe, fell 0.2% to 1.0326, adding to the losses of around 0.5% overnight after the release of more disappointing economic data from the region’s largest economy – Germany.
fell 5.4% in November, sapped by a decline in large orders, while the country’s fell 0.6%, bursting hopes for a boost from pre-Christmas promotions like Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
Investors are currently looking for the to ease interest rates by around 100 basis points in the first half of 2025.
“There is only a speech by French central bank governor Villeroy to watch in the eurozone calendar today. EUR/USD may find decent support at 1.0300 for now,” said ING.
traded 0.2% lower to 1.2447, with little in the way of economic data due for release Wednesday, and only a speech from Bank of England Deputy Governor Sam Woods to digest.
The held interest rates unchanged last month, and is expected to proceed cautiously with further rate cuts this year with inflation still above target.
Yuan sentiment remains weak
In Asia, rose 0.1% to 7.3511, with the Chinese currency hitting its weakest level in 17 years earlier in the week.
Sentiment remains weak surrounding China ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, with Trump having vowed to impose steep trade tariffs on China.
gained 0.1% to 158.19, after recovering marginally from its weakest level in nearly six months.
The yen stemmed its recent losses after government officials offered a verbal warning on potential currency market intervention, which saw traders adopt more caution in shorting the Japanese currency.
Forex
Dollar strengthens on elevated US bond yields, tariff talks
By Tom Westbrook and Greta Rosen Fondahn
SINGAPORE/GDANSK (Reuters) -The dollar rose for a second day on Wednesday on higher U.S. bond yields, sending other major currencies to multi-month lows, with a report that Donald Trump was mulling emergency measures to allow for a new tariff program also lending support.
The already-firm dollar climbed higher on Wednesday after CNN reported that President-elect Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency as legal justification for a large swath of universal tariffs on allies and adversaries.
The was last up 0.5% at 109.24, not far from the two-year peak of 109.58 it hit last week.
Its gains were broad-based, with the euro down 0.43% at $1.0293 and Britain’s pound under particular pressure, down 1.09% at $1.2342.
Data on Tuesday showed U.S. job openings unexpectedly rose in November and layoffs were low, while a separate survey showed U.S. services sector activity accelerated in December and a measure of input prices hit a two-year high – a possible inflation warning.
Bond markets reacted by sending 10-year Treasury yields up more than eight basis points on Tuesday, with the yield climbing to 4.728% on Wednesday.
“We’re getting very strong U.S. numbers… which has rates going up,” said Bart Wakabayashi, Tokyo branch manager at State Street (NYSE:), pushing expectations of Fed rate cuts out to the northern summer or beyond.
“There’s even the discussion about, will they cut, or may they even hike? The narrative has changed quite significantly.”
Markets are now pricing in just 36 basis points of easing from the Fed this year, with a first cut in July.
U.S. private payrolls data due later in the session will be eyed for further clues on the likely path of U.S. rates.
Traders are jittery ahead of key U.S. labour data on Friday and the inauguration of Donald Trump on Jan. 20, with his second U.S. presidency expected to begin with a flurry of policy announcements and executive orders.
The move in the pound drew particular attention, as it came alongside a sharp sell-off in British stocks and government bonds. The 10-year gilt yield is at its highest since 2008. [GB/]
Higher yields in general are more likely to lead to a stronger currency, but not in this case.
“With a non-data driven rise in yields that is not driven by any positive news – and the trigger seems to be inflation concern in the U.S., and Treasuries are selling off – the correlation inverts,” said Francesco Pesole, currency analyst at ING.
“That doesn’t happen for every currency, but the pound remains more sensitive than most other currencies to a rise in yields, likely because there’s still this lack of confidence in the sustainability of budget measures.”
Markets did not welcome the budget from Britain’s new Labour government late last year.
Elsewhere, the yen sagged close to the 160 per dollar level that drew intervention last year, touching 158.55, its weakest on the dollar for nearly six months.
Japan’s consumer sentiment deteriorated in December, a government survey showed, casting doubt on the central bank’s view that solid household spending will underpin the economy and justify a rise in interest rates.
hit 7.3322 per dollar, the lowest level since September 2023.
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