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The economics of Bitcoin halving: Understanding the effects on price and market sentiment

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Bitcoin (BTC), the pioneering cryptocurrency that sparked a global revolution in digital assets, operates on a unique monetary policy. One of the defining features of Bitcoin is its halving event, which occurs approximately every four years.

This article will explore the economics behind Bitcoin’s halving, examining its effects on price movements and market sentiment. By understanding these factors, investors and enthusiasts can gain valuable insights into the cryptocurrency’s market behavior.

Related: How does the monetary supply affect cryptocurrencies?

What is a Bitcoin halving?

Bitcoin halving, also known as a “halvening,” refers to the predetermined reduction in the rate at which new BTC are created. It is programmed into the Bitcoin protocol and occurs every 210,000 blocks, which is roughly every four years. The halving event halves the block reward, reducing the number of newly minted Bitcoin awarded to miners.

Supply and demand dynamics

A Bitcoin halving directly impacts the supply and demand dynamics of the cryptocurrency. By reducing the rate at which new BTC enters the market, halving effectively reduces the available supply. As the supply decreases, assuming demand remains constant or increases, basic economic principles suggest that the price of Bitcoin should rise.

Supply and demand is the basic economic principle supporting a price increase in response to Bitcoin’s halving. The law of supply and demand states that prices tend to increase when a commodity’s supply declines, and demand either stays the same or rises. The Bitcoin halving slows the rate of new Bitcoin creation and market release.

As a result, there are fewer newly created BTC available for purchase. The diminished supply produces a scarcity effect, which might push the price upward if demand for Bitcoin stays the same or rises.

Bitcoin’s controlled supply is a key factor contributing to its value proposition. The total supply of Bitcoin is limited to 21 million coins, and the halving mechanism gradually reduces the rate at which new BTC are produced until the maximum supply is reached. This scarcity aspect, coupled with the increasing recognition and adoption of Bitcoin, can create a perception of limited availability and drive up demand, thereby impacting the price.

Historical price movements

Halving events have frequently been associated with increases in the price of Bitcoin, with significant upward momentum both before and after previous halvings. For example, during the 2012 halving, Bitcoin’s price soared from about $12 to over $200 in just one year. Similarly, Bitcoin experienced a stunning recovery after its 2016 price halving, reaching a high of about $19,700 in December 2017.

Following the most recent halving event in May 2020, Bitcoin’s price surged. Starting at $8,787 during the halving, the cryptocurrency experienced a remarkable rally, eventually reaching its all-time high of nearly $69,000 in November 2021.

Market attitude and investor perception

Bitcoin halving events often generate increased market attention and hype. Expectations of lower supply and likely price increases may fuel positive feelings among investors and traders. This optimism could result in higher demand for Bitcoin as traders try to profit from the expected price gain. As a result, a Bitcoin halving can result in the self-fulfilling prophecy of rising market sentiment and demand.

It is crucial to remember that during halving occurrences, market sentiment isn’t always favorable. Market participants may also experience FUD around the potential effects of a price halving. Short-term price swings and heightened volatility may result from this conflicting sentiment.

Impact on mining economics

The Bitcoin halving event may also impact mining economics. Block rewards and transaction fees are the primary sources of income for miners, which are essential to confirming transactions and safeguarding the Bitcoin network.

The decrease in block rewards caused by a halving event directly affects miner profitability. After a halving event, miners operating with increased expenses might find it less profitable to mine Bitcoin, which could result in a drop in mining activity.

Related: ‘Don’t short when it’s dark green’: How to trade the 2024 Bitcoin halving

Network security and long-term outlook

Bitcoin’s halving may initially impact mining economics, but it also plays a critical role in preserving the network’s long-term security and stability. Miners are encouraged to continue their activities and secure the network through transaction validation due to the carefully managed decline in block rewards.

The network becomes more robust and less dependent on freshly created currencies for security as the mining industry adapts to the decreased block rewards.

Collect this article as an NFT to preserve this moment in history and show your support for independent journalism in the crypto space.

Cryptocurrency

Top Ripple (XRP) Price Predictions as of Late

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TL;DR

  • XRP recovered to $2.18 after dropping below $2 last week, with analysts predicting a potential rally.
  • While some foresee the asset reaching $100 in the future, achieving this would require an unrealistic market cap exceeding $5 trillion.

XRP Rally Incoming?

The cryptocurrency market correction, which started last week, negatively affected numerous leading digital assets. Ripple’s XRP is one of those, with its price plunging from $2.70 on December 17 to under $2 a few days later. Recently, the bulls recovered some lost ground, pushing the asset’s valuation to the current $2.18.

XRP Price
XRP Price, Source: CoinGecko

Despite the fluctuations, multiple analysts on crypto X continue to predict new peaks for XRP in the short term. Mikybull Crypto, for instance, claimed that XRP’s chart “is looking spicy on its current retest,” expecting a rise to a new all-time high of $4. 

For their part, EGRAG CRYPTO presented two possible scenarios. The analyst assumed XRP could head toward lower targets if it tumbled below $2. On the other hand, breaking above $2.65 could mean that “fireworks will ignite.” 

The X user with moniker Coach, JV also chipped in. Several days ago, they claimed that XRP would be one of those cryptocurrencies that investors will regret not buying now:

“XRP will be one of these assets where people will say, “I could have bought XRP at $2, $5, or $7, and will FOMO in at $100.” The beauty in this. Everyone will win in the long run! It’s the short-term mindset that destroys portfolios!”

It is important to note that reaching a whopping target of $100 will require XRP’s market cap to skyrocket above $5 trillion. As of this writing, the entire capitalization of the crypto sector is less than $3.5 trillion, making the forecast quite unplausible (to say the least).

Previous Predictions

Other industry participants who weighed in recently include the X users Crypto Bitlord and CrediBULL Crypto. The former believes “the final pump for 2024 is loading,” speculating that the price might rally to as high as $12 next month.

CrediBULL Crypto told his 450,000 followers on X that “the XRP/BTC chart looks absolutely fantastic” and “the most bullish-looking chart in the entire space.” As such, the analyst said they will look to open a long position in the coming days.

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Cryptocurrency

Vivek Ramaswamy’s Strive Asset Management Files for Bitcoin Bond ETF with SEC

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Strive Asset Management, led by billionaire entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, has filed a request with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch an exchange-traded fund (ETF) focused on Bitcoin-linked convertible bonds.

The proposed Strive Bitcoin Bond ETF is designed to offer exposure to bonds issued by corporations that use the proceeds to purchase Bitcoin as part of their treasury strategies.

The Bitcoin Bond ETF

In a December 27 post on X, the firm stated, “Strive’s first of many planned Bitcoin solutions will democratize access to Bitcoin bonds, which are bonds issued by corporations to purchase Bitcoin.”

The announcement further noted that these bonds offer attractive risk-return characteristics associated with Bitcoin but are currently out of reach for most investors. The ETF aims to bridge this gap by providing everyday Americans and institutional investors with easier access to BTC-related financial instruments.

According to the filing submitted on December 26, the proposed ETF will invest in securities from companies like MicroStrategy, which has become a prominent player in corporate Bitcoin adoption.

Since 2020, under the leadership of Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy has invested approximately $27 billion in the coin. These purchases were financed through equity offerings and convertible bonds, which typically carry low or no interest but can be converted into shares under specified conditions.

The Strive Bitcoin Bond ETF will be actively managed and will achieve its exposure to BTC-linked bonds either directly or through derivatives such as swaps and options. To maintain liquidity and collateral for these instruments, the fund will invest in high-quality, short-term assets like U.S. Treasuries and money market instruments.

While details regarding the management fee have not been disclosed, actively managed funds often come with higher fees compared to passive alternatives.

Strategic Context

Since its start in 2022, Strive Asset Management has focused on addressing long-term economic risks, including the global fiat debt crisis, inflation, and geopolitical tensions.

The company stated, “We strongly believe there is no better long-term investment to hedge against these risks than thoughtful exposure to Bitcoin.”

The asset manager views the flagship cryptocurrency as an important part of a diversified investment portfolio, encouraging both individual and institutional investors to allocate funds directly to Bitcoin, BTC bonds, and companies focused on the cryptocurrency.

Ramaswamy, who launched Strive with a focus on capitalism-driven strategies, has maintained a high-profile presence in both business and politics.

Although he briefly ran against Donald Trump in the 2023 Republican presidential primary, he later endorsed the President-elect. Upon winning, Trump appointed Ramaswamy to co-lead the Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E.), an initiative aimed at reducing government waste, with X owner Elon Musk.

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Binance’s Bitcoin Taker Buy Volume Hits $8.3 Billion: What It Means for the Market

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Bitcoin (BTC) has been struggling below the $100,000 mark despite a modest 2% surge over the past day.

However, a popular trading metric used to gauge buyer interest in Binance suggests that the cryptocurrency could revisit this crucial price level before the end of the year.

Strengthening Buying Pressure on Binance

Over the past 60 days, Binance’s Bitcoin Taker Buy Volume has reached $8.3 billion and formed three higher lows, indicative of strengthening buying pressure. This metric, which measures the total volume of buy transactions executed by market participants at current order book prices, reflects increasing investor interest in Bitcoin.

According to CryptoQuant’s analysis, the rise in Taker Buy Volume on Binance has been steady despite occasional market corrections.

This growing buying pressure often correlates with potential price increases, as it indicates that buyers are actively consuming available liquidity at market prices. While the market may appear overheated, the persistence of this trend points to a possible upward price movement in the near term.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin reserves on Binance have reached their lowest levels since early 2024, following a decline that started in August. This mirrors January’s low, which preceded a 90% rally in BTC’s price. Coupled with a 40,000 BTC drop in OTC desk inventories since November, this trend could potentially indicate rising demand and investor confidence ahead of a much-anticipated bullish reversal.

Bitcoin’s Next Move

Bitcoin has remained below the $100,000 mark since December 19, following its initial breakthrough on December 5. With its current value hovering around $96,000, the crypto asset has dropped over 12% from its record high of $108,300 reached on December 17. However, several experts foresee a bullish breakout.

The pseudonymous “xoom,” for one, recently highlighted a bullish engulfing candle with rising volume, indicating a potential price target of $110K to $130K by January’s end, with $120K as a realistic target. Despite possible short-term volatility, the trend suggests BTC could climb to $135K or higher in the coming months.

Another pseudonymous crypto analyst, “Titan of Crypto,” said that Bitcoin’s current price action appears to be similar to the correction fractal from late 2023. Interestingly, 2024’s movements are roughly three weeks ahead in the timeline. While the analyst does not guarantee the same scenario will unfold, the similarities highlight potential bullish momentum, as the cryptocurrency may replicate its previous trajectory and break toward new highs if the pattern persists.

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