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The economics of Bitcoin halving: Understanding the effects on price and market sentiment

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Bitcoin (BTC), the pioneering cryptocurrency that sparked a global revolution in digital assets, operates on a unique monetary policy. One of the defining features of Bitcoin is its halving event, which occurs approximately every four years.

This article will explore the economics behind Bitcoin’s halving, examining its effects on price movements and market sentiment. By understanding these factors, investors and enthusiasts can gain valuable insights into the cryptocurrency’s market behavior.

Related: How does the monetary supply affect cryptocurrencies?

What is a Bitcoin halving?

Bitcoin halving, also known as a “halvening,” refers to the predetermined reduction in the rate at which new BTC are created. It is programmed into the Bitcoin protocol and occurs every 210,000 blocks, which is roughly every four years. The halving event halves the block reward, reducing the number of newly minted Bitcoin awarded to miners.

Supply and demand dynamics

A Bitcoin halving directly impacts the supply and demand dynamics of the cryptocurrency. By reducing the rate at which new BTC enters the market, halving effectively reduces the available supply. As the supply decreases, assuming demand remains constant or increases, basic economic principles suggest that the price of Bitcoin should rise.

Supply and demand is the basic economic principle supporting a price increase in response to Bitcoin’s halving. The law of supply and demand states that prices tend to increase when a commodity’s supply declines, and demand either stays the same or rises. The Bitcoin halving slows the rate of new Bitcoin creation and market release.

As a result, there are fewer newly created BTC available for purchase. The diminished supply produces a scarcity effect, which might push the price upward if demand for Bitcoin stays the same or rises.

Bitcoin’s controlled supply is a key factor contributing to its value proposition. The total supply of Bitcoin is limited to 21 million coins, and the halving mechanism gradually reduces the rate at which new BTC are produced until the maximum supply is reached. This scarcity aspect, coupled with the increasing recognition and adoption of Bitcoin, can create a perception of limited availability and drive up demand, thereby impacting the price.

Historical price movements

Halving events have frequently been associated with increases in the price of Bitcoin, with significant upward momentum both before and after previous halvings. For example, during the 2012 halving, Bitcoin’s price soared from about $12 to over $200 in just one year. Similarly, Bitcoin experienced a stunning recovery after its 2016 price halving, reaching a high of about $19,700 in December 2017.

Following the most recent halving event in May 2020, Bitcoin’s price surged. Starting at $8,787 during the halving, the cryptocurrency experienced a remarkable rally, eventually reaching its all-time high of nearly $69,000 in November 2021.

Market attitude and investor perception

Bitcoin halving events often generate increased market attention and hype. Expectations of lower supply and likely price increases may fuel positive feelings among investors and traders. This optimism could result in higher demand for Bitcoin as traders try to profit from the expected price gain. As a result, a Bitcoin halving can result in the self-fulfilling prophecy of rising market sentiment and demand.

It is crucial to remember that during halving occurrences, market sentiment isn’t always favorable. Market participants may also experience FUD around the potential effects of a price halving. Short-term price swings and heightened volatility may result from this conflicting sentiment.

Impact on mining economics

The Bitcoin halving event may also impact mining economics. Block rewards and transaction fees are the primary sources of income for miners, which are essential to confirming transactions and safeguarding the Bitcoin network.

The decrease in block rewards caused by a halving event directly affects miner profitability. After a halving event, miners operating with increased expenses might find it less profitable to mine Bitcoin, which could result in a drop in mining activity.

Related: ‘Don’t short when it’s dark green’: How to trade the 2024 Bitcoin halving

Network security and long-term outlook

Bitcoin’s halving may initially impact mining economics, but it also plays a critical role in preserving the network’s long-term security and stability. Miners are encouraged to continue their activities and secure the network through transaction validation due to the carefully managed decline in block rewards.

The network becomes more robust and less dependent on freshly created currencies for security as the mining industry adapts to the decreased block rewards.

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Cryptocurrency

Solana Whales Dump SOL Amid Major Token Unlock 

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“Many whales unstaked and dumped SOL today,” reported blockchain analytics platform Lookonchain on April 4.

It highlighted four transactions of over $3 million worth of the Solana native token, the largest of which was a whopping 258,646 SOL worth around $30 million.

The Solana selloff has been a result of the meme coin bubble bursting as the asset has dumped by 60% in just over two months.

Major Solana Unlock

There was also around $200 million worth of Solana being unlocked on April 4, which is adding to the selling pressure. Arkham Intelligence said it “marks the largest single-day unlock of staked SOL until 2028.”

CoinNess Global reported that 425,266 SOL, valued at $50 million, was unlocked, and 284,147 SOL, worth $33 million, had been transferred to the exchanges Binance, Kraken, and Coinbase.

Solana token unlocks refer to events when previously locked SOL becomes available for trading, often due to vesting schedules or liquidation processes. The most recent significant unlock occurred in March when 11.2 million tokens worth $1.3 billion were released from the FTX bankruptcy estate.

Token unlocks are generally bearish in the short term because they increase the circulating supply, which is currently 514 million for Solana.

Fintech firm Ripple also unlocked $1 billion worth of its XRP token this week, adding to selling pressure as the asset dipped below $2 on April 3.

Other recent major token unlocks include Sui, and its price has tanked almost 10% today.

SOL Price Tanks

SOL prices have declined by over 4% on the day, which is a larger loss than the wider market. The asset fell to $112 in an intraday low before recovering to trade around $118 at the time of writing.

SOL has tanked by more than 16% over the past week, while the wider crypto market has only declined by 6.5%. This suggests that SOL is being dumped at a much faster rate than Bitcoin and other altcoins.

The Solana blockchain is primarily used for memecoin minting and trading, and now that this bubble has burst, activity and network revenue for the ecosystem have slumped. This has resulted in SOL prices crashing to their lowest levels in over a year.

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Good News for Ripple Investors: Is XRP Preparing for a Rebound?

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TL;DR

  • Ripple’s ability to defend from a price drop below the critical support at $2 could be a proper entry signal.
  • The narrative is also supported by a popular technical indicator, which just flashed a buy signal.

The past week didn’t go well for the fourth-largest cryptocurrency, which is down by over 6% within this timeframe. Thursday evening was a particularly painful trading period for the asset as Trump’s latest tariffs pushed it south to a three-week low of $1.96.

This meant that XRP had lost roughly 25% of its value since March 19, when it peaked at $2.6 after the announcement by Ripple’s CEO, Brad Garlinghouse, that the lawsuit against the US SEC had effectively ended.

Nevertheless, the cross-border token reacted well to the brief slip below the key support line at $2 and bounced off above it almost immediately. The past 12 hours or so have been more promising as XRP now trades at $2.1.

Renowned crypto analyst Ali Martinez highlighted the importance of the $2 support numerous times in the past, warning that XRP could slump to $1.2 if it breaks to the downside. Now that it managed to defend the asset, it could be the propeller of another rally.

Martinez substantiated his position by mentioning the TD Sequential – a metric that shows the market exhaustion in either direction. According to the analyst, the technical indicator had flashed a buy signal on the daily after XRP held above $2, which could trigger a trend reversal and lead to upcoming gains.

This prediction is in stark contrast to the concerning developments around ADA and LINK, where whales had started to offload substantial portions of both assets.

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Cryptocurrency

Disturbing News for Cardano (ADA) and Chainlink (LINK) Investors: Details

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TL;DR

  • Chainlink and Cardano whales have begun offloading substantial portions of their assets in the past few weeks.
  • Although both altcoins are slightly in the green on a daily scale, their weekly and monthly performances are quite concerning.

Large market participants, known as whales, are a crucial part of the cryptocurrency industry as they can bend prices depending on their behavior – big purchases typically lead to upcoming gains, and vice versa.

In the case of LINK and ADA, these investors were stacking up big time after the US elections in early November and ahead of Trump’s inauguration in mid-January. Their consecutive purchases managed to push LINK above $30 for the first time in over three years, while ADA’s peak during this cycle came at over $1.3.

However, both of those multi-year records came in December. Since then, the two cryptocurrencies, as well as most of the market, have been in a state of a freefall. ADA is down by roughly 50% and sits at $0.66 now, while LINK has slumped by 57% to $13.

These declines could be linked again to whales and their change in attitude. In the case of LINK, they have offloaded more than 170 million tokens in less than a month, which have a whopping USD value of $2.2 billion, according to today’s prices.

According to Ali Martinez, a popular analyst with over 130,000 followers, LINK has now broken a ‘crucial trendline’ that held its price for nearly two years.

The landscape around Cardano is not that much brighter. After the March sell-off, ADA whales kept disposing of their assets by selling another 120 million tokens (valued at $80 million) in just two days at the start of April.

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