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Bitcoin options tantalizing bears to push price below $30K before Friday’s expiry

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This week’s Bitcoin (BTC) options expiry on Friday, July 21, could solidify the $30,000 resistance level and give the bears the upper hand for the first time since the 21% rally between June 14 and June 21.

Bitcoin options expiries coincide with volatility

A review of Bitcoin’s recent price action shows that three out of the last four BTC options expiries triggered significant price movements, making it crucial for traders to pay close attention to these events.

Bitcoin/USD price index, 4-hour. Source: TradingView

Notably, Bitcoin’s price has consistently shown strong reactions following the weekly 8:00 am UTC options expiry. While causation cannot be established, the magnitude of these price swings warrants extreme caution leading up to the weekly expiry on July 21.

Bitcoin bears benefit from stricter regulations

While this week’s options expiry could give bears control of Bitcoin’s price in the short term, bulls have the potential advantage of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission reviewing spot exchange-traded fund proposals.

Although these proposals are still in the early stages of regulatory scrutiny, the slow progression could partially explain why the bears have managed to defend $31,000 multiple times since late June.

However, their best chance of keeping Bitcoin’s price below $30,000 lies in the worsening regulatory environment. On July 19, the global securities exchange Nasdaq suspended the launch of its cryptocurrency custodian solution due to a lack of regulatory clarity in the United States. This change of plans was justified by Nasdaq’s CEO, Adena Friedman.

Related: Bipartisan bill to regulate DeFi, crypto security risks introduced into US Senate

Furthermore, on July 14, cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase announced the suspension of its staking services for clients in California, New Jersey, South Carolina and Wisconsin. This decision followed a June 6 lawsuit from the SEC that accused the exchange of operating as an unregistered security broker since 2019.

Bitcoin bulls’ overoptimism leads to a disappointing outcome

Bitcoin’s price briefly surpassed $31,000 on July 13 and July 14, fueling bullish bets by traders using options contracts. However, a four-hour correction brought the price back down to $30,000.

Deribit Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for July 21. Source: Deribit

The 0.39 put-to-call ratio reflects the difference in open interest between the $430 million call (buy) options and the $170 million put (sell) options. However, the outcome will be lower than the $600 million total open interest since the bulls were overconfident.

For example, if Bitcoin’s price trades at $30,500 at 8:00 am UTC on July 14, only $18 million worth of call options will be accounted for. This distinction arises from the fact that the right to purchase Bitcoin at $31,000 or $32,000 becomes invalid if BTC trades below those levels upon expiration.

Below are the three most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on July 21 for call (buy) and put (sell) instruments varies depending on the expiration price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

  • Between $28,000 and $30,000: 100 calls vs. 2,400 puts. The net result favors the put (sell) instruments by $70 million.
  • Between $30,000 and $31,000: 600 calls vs. 1,800 puts. The net result favors the put (sell) instruments by $35 million.
  • Between $31,000 and $32,000: 3,100 calls vs. 1,400 puts. The net result favors the call (buy) instruments by $55 million.

Considering the recent weak macroeconomic indicators, it’s likely that bears will continue suppressing Bitcoin’s price until Friday’s expiry. Moreover, China’s second-quarter gross domestic product grew by 6.3% year-on-year, falling short of the 7.3% market expectation. Meanwhile, U.S. retail sales in June increased by 0.2% from the previous month, below the 0.50% consensus.

Consequently, the bulls find themselves in a challenging position, as their call (buy) instruments will be invalidated if Bitcoin’s expiry price falls below $30,000. Therefore, the bears’ $35 million favorable outcome may not be a significant win, but it does increase the chances of $30,000 becoming a new resistance area. 

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Cryptocurrency

SEC Reviews Grayscale’s Solana ETF Filing, Indicating Possible Shift in Crypto Regulation

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The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has acknowledged Grayscale’s filing for a Solana-based exchange-traded fund (ETF).

It is the first time the agency has engaged with an ETF proposal tracking a cryptocurrency that was once considered a security.

‘A Positive Sign’

The acknowledgment, relayed on February 6, caught many by surprise, given that just six weeks ago, the regulator, then led by former Chair Gary Gensler, asked the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) to withdraw similar Solana ETF filings.

Breaking the news on X, ETF expert James Seyffart pointed out that the regulator’s action was notable because it had previously refused to engage with other companies that had attempted to file SOL-based exchange-traded products. Further, he suggested it could be a “positive sign” for crypto firms, including exchanges, that the SEC has sued over claims that Solana is a security.

Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst, shared similar sentiments, calling it a “notable development” and adding:

“We are now in new territory, albeit just a baby step, but seemingly the direct result of leadership change.”

Earlier in the year, Seyffart had said that proposals for ETFs tracking the world’s fifth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap may face delays until 2026 because of ongoing lawsuits involving the classification of SOL as a security. The SEC had taken separate legal action against Binance and Coinbase, accusing the exchanges of offering unregistered securities for listing tokens such as Solana and Cardano.

Grayscale, the biggest digital asset manager in the world, first applied to convert its Grayscale Solana Trust into an ETF towards the end of last year. It launched the product slightly more than three years ago, and as of the start of this month, it had over 7 million shares outstanding.

Accepting its filing is just the first step in a lengthy process. The regulator now has a 240-day window to approve or deny the proposal.

CBOE Files XRP ETF Requests

Elsewhere, the CBOE has filed 19b-4 forms on behalf of several crypto investment firms, including Bitwise, Canary Funds, WisdomTree, and 21Shares, for XRP ETFs. The documents represent the next stage in the approval process, following the submission of S-1 registration statements.

While their validation is far from guaranteed, the SEC’s recent engagement with Litecoin ETF proposals suggests there could be a more favorable environment for crypto-based financial products going forward.

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Binance Test Token Pumps to $37M After Accidental Name Reveal

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A test meme coin (TST) created for a tutorial on the Four.Meme platform experienced an unexpected surge in value following a social media post by former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao, popularly known as CZ.

The token, originally intended as a demonstration asset on the BNB Chain, saw its market cap skyrocket as traders and influencers turned it into a fully functional cryptocurrency.

Accidental Launch

According to an X post from Zhao, the meme coin’s name was briefly visible in a single frame of the training video. After realizing it had been exposed, the team removed the video from the web. However, by then, it had already been spread across the internet.

The video and the token soon caught the eye of several Chinese crypto influencers, with their endorsements creating further interest and attracting more traders. What had started as a simple test asset quickly transformed into a fully tradable coin.

Zhao has since clarified that neither he nor Binance endorsed the coin, stating:

“This is NOT an official token by the BNB Chain team, or anyone. It is a test token used just for that video tutorial. Nothing more.”

He added that a team member had also deleted the private key for the creator address used in the tutorial, which contained 0.13% of the token supply. He further stated that no one on the training team or at Binance held any of the cryptocurrency.

Despite this, the former executive suggested restoring the instruction video while also encouraging the community by commenting, “Happy trading.”

TST’s Meteoric Rise

According to DEX Screener data, TST, which initially held a valuation of just under $500,000, saw its fully diluted value surge beyond $25 million. Eager traders drove its market cap past $37 million, with its liquidity reaching $4.5 million.

As the coin continued gaining traction, it was listed on PancakeSwap. Shortly after, it was also added to the MEXC exchange, where its price fluctuated between $0.02 and $0.04. Early investors also made substantial profits, with one trader reportedly earning $303,600 from sales and another securing $258,200.

The rapid rise of the meme coin shows the intense demand for this asset class. However, despite their popularity, they have faced growing scrutiny in recent weeks. Pump.fun is currently the subject of a proposed class-action lawsuit from investors alleging it marketed and sold unregistered securities.

Additionally, the launch of a Trump-themed meme coin in January also caused controversy within the industry. Mark Cuban criticized the initiative as a setback for crypto’s legitimacy, arguing that it weakens ownership and fuels speculation.

Senator Elizabeth Warren also called for an investigation into the Trump token, citing concerns over ethics, foreign influence, and regulatory oversight.

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Bitcoin Eyes $100K After Market Crash, Trump Approves US Sovereign Wealth Fund: Weekly Crypto Recap

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Somewhat unexpectedly, all the drama started during the previous weekend, which is typically a calmer period for the financial markets. Well, except crypto, because it’s open 24/7.

President Trump’s implementation of new taxes on Canada, China, and Mexico brought mass panic across the charts. On Saturday evening and Sunday, BTC tumbled from $102,000 to under $100,000 and down to $97,000. It managed to catch its breath on Sunday afternoon, but the bears were back in control of the market on Monday morning.

In a matter of hours, BTC slumped hard and fell below $92,000 for the first time in about two weeks. Consequently, bitcoin had lost ten grand within 24 hours and roughly $15,000 since last Friday when it stood above $106,000.

After that multi-week low, though, the cryptocurrency bounced off and jumped above $100,000 and back to $102,000, thus completing another ten-grand move within hours. Nevertheless, it failed to sustain within six-digit territory and headed south in the following days. It flirted with the $96,000 support line on several occasions but so far has managed to maintain above it.

Hours ago, BTC pumped by a few grand and touched $100,000 for the first time since Monday, following the US jobs data. However, it couldn’t keep the momentum going and is now back below it.

The weekly charts are quite painful for most altcoins. Ethereum is down by 17% and trades well below $2,800. XRP has plunged by 18% to under $2.5, while DOGE, ADA, LINK, AVAX, and SUI have plummeted by over 20%.

In fact, OM is the only larger-cap altcoin in the green. An 18% surge since last Friday has pushed its price to well above $6.

Market Data

Crypto Weekly. Source: QuantifyCrypto

Market Cap: $3.359T | 24H Vol: $154B | BTC Dominance: 58.5%

BTC: $98,750 (-5%) | ETH: $2,750 (-17.25% ) | XRP: $2.49 (-18.3%)

This Week’s Crypto Headlines You Can’t Miss

Bitcoin Rallies Toward $100K as Mexico and US Suspend Tariffs. As explained above, the highly volatile trading week due to Trump’s tariffs against a few countries led to a substantial crash in the market. However, the suspension agreement between the US and Mexico sent BTC flying on Monday evening, with a brief surge toward $100,000.

Trump Approves US Sovereign Wealth Fund, Will it Buy Bitcoin? The new US President dominates the news on all fronts and his decision to approve a US sovereign wealth fund earlier this week broke Crypto Twitter as many anticipated that it will finally see the inclusion of BTC and perhaps other digital assets. However, that doesn’t seem to be the case, at least for now.

MicroStrategy Drops ‘Micro’ From Name After Record BTC Buying Quarter. The biggest corporate holder of bitcoin rebranded its name this week by dropping ‘Micro.’ The company, now called simply ‘Strategy,’ has introduced BTC into its logo and reaffirmed its leadership position in the bitcoin landscape by registering its best quarter in terms of accumulation.

Arthur Hayes Slams US Bitcoin Reserve Plans and Crypto Regulation Efforts. The BitMEX co-founder is among the critics of the supposed US bitcoin reserve as he believes that such a move would be mostly political and can be a double-edged sword. He noted that ‘what can be bought can be sold,’ and a potential accumulation of BTC by the US government could be devastating if there’s a change in the nation’s political scene in the next few years.

Crypto Analyst Says Altcoins May Take 2 Months to Recover, Here’s Why. The aforementioned crash in the crypto markets hit the altcoins the hardest, with many charting double-digit losses daily and on a weekly scale. A popular analyst believes many of them would need at least a month or two to recover as their corrections were deeper.

BlackRock Expands Crypto Offerings With Bitcoin ETP in Europe: Report. The asset manager behind the world’s largest Bitcoin ETF plans to expand its portfolio of BTC-related products. BlackRock aims to launch a BTC-linked exchange-traded product in Europe, which would become its first entry into the European crypto scene.

Charts

This week, we have a chart analysis of Ethereum, Ripple, Cardano, Binance Coin, and Solana – click here for the complete price analysis.

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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

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