Economy
Factbox-U.S. banks increase reserves for commercial real estate exposure
© Reuters. The logo for Goldman Sachs is seen on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, New York, U.S., November 17, 2021. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly/File photo
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By Matt Tracy
(Reuters) – The U.S. commercial property market has faced severe challenges since the pandemic due to lingering office vacancies, diminished retail activity and higher interest rates. That stress has caused banks and other lenders to tighten their standards for new loans and scrutinize existing ones.
While regional banks carry the greatest exposure to the commercial real estate (CRE) sector, second quarter earnings show that a number of big banks have prepared for potential defaults, primarily on office loans.
Here are the highlights across the sector:
BANK OF AMERICA CORP:
Chief Financial Officer Alastair Borthwick said the bank had $17 million in charge-offs, or debt owed to a bank that is unlikely to be recovered, on its office loan exposure during the second quarter versus $15 million in the first quarter. The value of assets under review for credit risk rose by $1.7 billion from the first quarter, due mainly to its CRE exposure. However, Borthwick noted the bank’s office CRE exposure was low relative to its overall loan portfolio, at 2%.
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC
The investment bank reported about $305 million in net losses within a private portfolio, driven by markdowns on office CRE, it said. The Wall Street giant also said its debt investment revenue of $197 million had declined year-on-year due primarily to “weaker performance” in its real estate investments.
Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE:) CFO Denis Coleman said the bank’s provision for credit losses stood at $615 million in the second quarter. CRE loans represented just 15% of the bank’s overall lending book, while only 1% of the CRE loan portfolio was office-related.
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO
While its CRE revenue grew to $806 million in the second quarter from $642 million in the first, JPMorgan (NYSE:) reported $1.1 billion in credit loss provisions driven by its office portfolio. While the portfolio was “quite small”, Chief Financial Officer Jeremy Barnum told investors the bank increased provisions “to what felt like a comfortable coverage ratio.”
WELLS FARGO
The bank said it had a $949 million increase in its allowance for credit losses, primarily CRE office loans.
At the same time, it saw a quarter-on-quarter rise in CRE revenue as a result of higher interest rates and loan balances.
“While we haven’t seen significant losses in our office portfolio to-date, we are reserving for the weakness that we expect to play out,” CEO Charlie Scharf said.
CITIZENS FINANCIAL SERVICES
Citizens’ nonaccrual loans – those on which a payment hasn’t been made for 90 days – grew by $195 million to roughly $1.2 billion, while its net charge-offs increased by $19 million to $152 million. Both increases were driven largely by the bank’s CRE holdings.
Citizens recorded a credit loss provision of $176 million in the second quarter. It increased its allowance for credit losses to $2.04 billion from $2.01 billion at the end of the first quarter, which included $41 million in connection with its general office portfolio.
“We believe losses are manageable and readily absorbed by reserves,” Bruce Van Saun, Citizen’s CEO, told investors.
EAST WEST BANCORP
The bank highlighted that its CRE portfolio had a low average loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 61%, a key metric used to determine the credit risk of a loan. East West’s office portfolio had a weighted average LTV of 52%.
While almost three-quarters of the bank’s office loans are to borrowers in the troubled California market, it noted a “high percentage” of its CRE loans carry full recourse and personal guarantees from individuals with “substantial net worth.”
“All of these characteristics help to keep this portfolio strong,” Dominic Ng, East West’s chairman and CEO, said.
FIFTH THIRD BANCORP
The regional bank’s allowance for credit losses increased 0.09% from the first quarter to $2.53 billion, due in part to a 0.27% increased allowance for its commercial mortgage loans.
Fifth Third’s nonperforming CRE loans declined to 0.13% in the second quarter from 0.29% in the first quarter. Its percentage of CRE loans at least 30 days delinquent grew to 0.29% from 0.04%.
“We have limited office exposure,” Fifth Third CFO James Leonard told investors Thursday, noting the bank “had deemphasized office even before the pandemic.”
MORGAN STANLEY
The investment bank said provisions for credit losses in the second quarter amounted to $97 million versus $82 million the same period last year, primarily driven by deterioration in CRE.
WEBSTER FINANCIAL CORP
The regional bank’s nonperforming CRE loans ticked up to $47.9 million last quarter from $35.8 million in the first quarter.
Meanwhile, it divested $80 million in CRE loans last quarter, “the vast majority of which were secured by office properties,” resulting in $13 million in charge-offs, Webster CFO Glenn MacInnes told investors. The bank reduced its office exposure by 25% over the last four quarters with a “minimal hit to capital,” CEO John Ciulla said.
Economy
Russian central bank says it needs months to make sure CPI falling before rate cuts -RBC
© Reuters. Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina attends a news conference in Moscow, Russia June 14, 2019. REUTERS/Shamil Zhumatov/File Photo
MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia’s central bank will need two to three months to make sure that inflation is steadily declining before taking any decision on interest rate cuts, the bank’s governor Elvira Nabiullina told RBC media on Sunday.
The central bank raised its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 16% earlier in December, hiking for the fifth consecutive meeting in response to stubborn inflation, and suggested that its tightening cycle was nearly over.
Nabiullina said it was not yet clear when exactly the regulator would start cutting rates, however.
“We really need to make sure that inflation is steadily decreasing, that these are not one-off factors that can affect the rate of price growth in a particular month,” she said.
Nabiullina said the bank was taking into account a wide range of indicators but primarily those that “characterize the stability of inflation”.
“This will take two or three months or more – it depends on how much the wide range of indicators that characterize sustainable inflation declines,” she said.
The bank will next convene to set its benchmark rate on Feb. 16.
The governor also said the bank should have started monetary policy tightening earlier than in July, when it embarked on the rate-hiking cycle.
Economy
China identifies second set of projects in $140 billion spending plan
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Workers walk past an under-construction area with completed office towers in the background, in Shenzhen’s Qianhai new district, Guangdong province, China August 25, 2023. REUTERS/David Kirton/File Photo
SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China’s top planning body said on Saturday it had identified a second batch of public investment projects, including flood control and disaster relief programmes, under a bond issuance and investment plan announced in October to boost the economy.
With the latest tranche, China has now earmarked more than 800 billion yuan of its 1 trillion yuan ($140 billion) in additional government bond issuance in the fourth quarter, as it focuses on fiscal steps to shore up the flagging economy.
The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said in a statement on Saturday it had identified 9,600 projects with planned investment of more than 560 billion yuan.
China’s economy, the world’s second largest, is struggling to regain its footing post-COVID-19 as policymakers grapple with tepid consumer demand, weak exports, falling foreign investment and a deepening real estate crisis.
The 1 trillion yuan in additional bond issuance will widen China’s 2023 budget deficit ratio to around 3.8 percent from 3 percent, the state-run Xinhua news agency has said.
“Construction of the projects will improve China’s flood control system, emergency response mechanism and disaster relief capabilities, and better protect people’s lives and property, so it is very significant,” the NDRC said.
The agency said it will coordinate with other government bodies to make sure that funds are allocated speedily for investment and that high standards of quality are maintained in project construction.
($1 = 7.1315 renminbi)
Economy
Russian central bank says it needs months to make sure CPI falling before rate cuts -RBC
© Reuters. Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina attends a news conference in Moscow, Russia June 14, 2019. REUTERS/Shamil Zhumatov/File Photo
MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia’s central bank will need two to three months to make sure that inflation is steadily declining before taking any decision on interest rate cuts, the bank’s governor Elvira Nabiullina told RBC media on Sunday.
The central bank raised its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 16% earlier in December, hiking for the fifth consecutive meeting in response to stubborn inflation, and suggested that its tightening cycle was nearly over.
Nabiullina said it was not yet clear when exactly the regulator would start cutting rates, however.
“We really need to make sure that inflation is steadily decreasing, that these are not one-off factors that can affect the rate of price growth in a particular month,” she said.
Nabiullina said the bank was taking into account a wide range of indicators but primarily those that “characterize the stability of inflation”.
“This will take two or three months or more – it depends on how much the wide range of indicators that characterize sustainable inflation declines,” she said.
The bank will next convene to set its benchmark rate on Feb. 16.
The governor also said the bank should have started monetary policy tightening earlier than in July, when it embarked on the rate-hiking cycle.
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