Economy

IMF cuts Saudi Arabia’s 2023 GDP growth forecast to 1.9%

Published

1 year ago

July 26, 2023

IMF cuts Saudi Arabia's 2023 GDP growth forecast to 1.9%

DUBAI (Reuters) -The International Monetary Fund cut its 2023 GDP growth projection for Saudi Arabia to 1.9% in its latest World Economic Outlook update released on Tuesday, to reflect the impact of prolonged oil production cuts.

The IMF revised its growth forecast for the world’s top oil exporter from 3.1% projected in its May regional outlook; in June, it said growth could ease to 2.1% in 2023.

“The downgrade for Saudi Arabia for 2023 reflects production cuts announced in April and June in line with an agreement

through OPEC+…whereas private investment, including from “giga-project” implementation, continues to support strong non-oil GDP growth,” the IMF said in its report on Tuesday.

The Saudi economy grew 8.7% last year, as high oil prices boosted revenue and led to the kingdom’s first budget surplus in almost 10 years.

But global macroeconomic worries and an uncertain demand outlook have weighed on prices, pushing growth projections lower.

The world’s top oil exporter said earlier this month it would prolong an extra production output cut on top of a broader OPEC+ deal, and has raised prices for most of its crude to Asian customers in August for a second month.

The bigger than expected slowdown in Saudi growth this year will also weigh on overall growth in the Middle East and Central Asia region, which is projected to decline to 2.5% in 2023, from 5.4% last year, the IMF said.

Economy

Russian central bank says it needs months to make sure CPI falling before rate cuts -RBC

Published

12 months ago

December 26, 2023

Russian central bank says it needs months to make sure CPI falling before rate cuts -RBC

MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia’s central bank will need two to three months to make sure that inflation is steadily declining before taking any decision on interest rate cuts, the bank’s governor Elvira Nabiullina told RBC media on Sunday.

The central bank raised its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 16% earlier in December, hiking for the fifth consecutive meeting in response to stubborn inflation, and suggested that its tightening cycle was nearly over.

Nabiullina said it was not yet clear when exactly the regulator would start cutting rates, however.

“We really need to make sure that inflation is steadily decreasing, that these are not one-off factors that can affect the rate of price growth in a particular month,” she said.

Nabiullina said the bank was taking into account a wide range of indicators but primarily those that “characterize the stability of inflation”.

“This will take two or three months or more – it depends on how much the wide range of indicators that characterize sustainable inflation declines,” she said.

The bank will next convene to set its benchmark rate on Feb. 16.

The governor also said the bank should have started monetary policy tightening earlier than in July, when it embarked on the rate-hiking cycle.

Economy

China identifies second set of projects in $140 billion spending plan

Published

12 months ago

December 25, 2023

China identifies second set of projects in $140 billion spending plan

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Workers walk past an under-construction area with completed office towers in the background, in Shenzhen’s Qianhai new district, Guangdong province, China August 25, 2023. REUTERS/David Kirton/File Photo

SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China’s top planning body said on Saturday it had identified a second batch of public investment projects, including flood control and disaster relief programmes, under a bond issuance and investment plan announced in October to boost the economy.

With the latest tranche, China has now earmarked more than 800 billion yuan of its 1 trillion yuan ($140 billion) in additional government bond issuance in the fourth quarter, as it focuses on fiscal steps to shore up the flagging economy.

The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said in a statement on Saturday it had identified 9,600 projects with planned investment of more than 560 billion yuan.

China’s economy, the world’s second largest, is struggling to regain its footing post-COVID-19 as policymakers grapple with tepid consumer demand, weak exports, falling foreign investment and a deepening real estate crisis.

The 1 trillion yuan in additional bond issuance will widen China’s 2023 budget deficit ratio to around 3.8 percent from 3 percent, the state-run Xinhua news agency has said.

“Construction of the projects will improve China’s flood control system, emergency response mechanism and disaster relief capabilities, and better protect people’s lives and property, so it is very significant,” the NDRC said.

The agency said it will coordinate with other government bodies to make sure that funds are allocated speedily for investment and that high standards of quality are maintained in project construction.

($1 = 7.1315 renminbi)

Economy

Russian central bank says it needs months to make sure CPI falling before rate cuts -RBC

Published

12 months ago

December 25, 2023

Nabiullina said it was not yet clear when exactly the regulator would start cutting rates, however.

“We really need to make sure that inflation is steadily decreasing, that these are not one-off factors that can affect the rate of price growth in a particular month,” she said.

Nabiullina said the bank was taking into account a wide range of indicators but primarily those that “characterize the stability of inflation”.

“This will take two or three months or more – it depends on how much the wide range of indicators that characterize sustainable inflation declines,” she said.

The bank will next convene to set its benchmark rate on Feb. 16.

The governor also said the bank should have started monetary policy tightening earlier than in July, when it embarked on the rate-hiking cycle.