Stock Markets

ECB fans talk of September pause after raising rates to 23-year high

Published

1 year ago

July 28, 2023

ECB fans talk of September pause after raising rates to 23-year high

By Balazs Koranyi and Francesco Canepa

FRANKFURT (Reuters) -The European Central Bank raised interest rates for the ninth consecutive time on Thursday but dialled up the possibility of a pause next month as stubbornly high inflation and recession worries pull policymakers in opposing directions.

Fighting off a historic surge in prices, the ECB has now lifted borrowing costs by a combined 425 basis points since last July, worried that price growth could be perpetuated by both rising costs and wages in an exceptionally tight jobs market.

With Thursday’s 25 basis point move, the ECB’s deposit rate stands at 3.75%, its highest level since 2000 – before euro notes and coins were even in circulation. The main refinancing rate was set at 4.25%.

ECB President Christine Lagarde said what comes next was in the balance, although the central bank was determined to “break the back” of inflation. It was widely criticised for a slow response to last year’s initial surge in prices.

She had responded to most of the questions at a press conference by saying all options remained on the table but sent the euro tumbling with a dovish flourish near the end.

“Do we have more ground to cover? At this point in time I wouldn’t say so,” Lagarde said, almost unprompted, while stressing that the ECB’s decisions would depend on the data.

“There is the possibility of a hike (next time). There is the possibility of a pause. It’s a decisive maybe.” Lagarde said, adding that policymakers were “open-minded” and unified.

Anna Stupnytska, a global macro economist at Fidelity International, said her comments meant the ECB was “now clearly countenancing pausing”.

Two sources said the balance of views had shifted on the Governing Council, with more policymakers than before now worried about a softening of the economy after a year in which concerns about inflation dominated.

Some policymakers currently favour a pause in September, expecting the euro zone to be heading into a recession, while others would prefer to raise borrowing costs again.

An ECB spokesperson declined to comment.

The ECB’s earlier policy statement said rates would be set at “sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary” but dropped a reference to their having to be “brought” to a level that would cut inflation quickly enough to its 2% target.

Lagarde explained the tweak was “not random or irrelevant”.

INFLATION, RECESSION?

The problem is that inflation is coming down slowly and could take until 2025 to fall back to 2%, as a price surge initially driven by energy has seeped into the broader economy via large mark-ups and is fuelling the cost of services.

While overall inflation has halved from October, underlying price growth is hovering near historic highs and may have even accelerated this month.

Lagarde said the risks of so-called “second round” effects had not worsened since last month.

But record-low unemployment has raised fears that wages will jump as workers seek to recoup real incomes lost to inflation which is why many investors and analysts had been expecting the ECB to hike again in September pending autumn wage data.

“My overall sense is that everyone expected Lagarde to stress that the bank was data-dependent, and a little bit more hawkish (than the Fed) as is the ECB’s style,” Societe Generale (OTC:)’s FX strategist Kit Juckes said.

“But what was striking, was she has basically come out and said the net result of all the recent data was that it was not good.”

The euro tumbled as Lagarde spoke and briefly dipped under $1.10 having risen 0.5% to touch $1.1149 beforehand.

Markets had fully priced in another rate hike just a few weeks ago, but bets are growing that Thursday’s move will be the last, with the focus turning to how long rates will stay high.

“The bar for another hike in September is now dependent on upward surprises to inflation numbers, at a time when strong disinflationary forces are in play – so the default position is to keep rates constant for a sustained period,” RBC BlueBay portfolio manager Neil Mehta said.

More tightening would however be consistent with comments from policymakers including ECB board member Isabel Schnabel that raising rates too far would be less costly than not enough.

On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve raised borrowing costs and kept the door open to more, though Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave few hints about September.

Indicators of business, investor and consumer sentiment and bank lending surveys point to a continued deterioration after the euro zone skirted a recession last winter.

And with manufacturing in a deep recession and the previously resilient services sector showing signs of softening despite what is likely to be a superb summer holiday season, it is hard to see where any rebound would come from.

Such weakness, exacerbated by a loss of purchasing power after inflation eroded real incomes, could push down inflation faster than some expect, leaving less work for the ECB.

“We know we are getting closer,” Lagarde said, referring the end of the ECB’s rate hike run.

(Additional writing by Marc Jones in London; Editing by Catherine Evans)

Stock Markets

14 lessons from 2024 to remember in 2025: BofA

Published

38 mins ago

December 22, 2024

Investing.com — In a recent note, Bank of America outlined 14 key lessons from 2024 that investors should keep in mind as they head into 2025, warning that market momentum and stretched valuations could face headwinds in the year ahead.

While this year resembled the steady gains of 1996-97, rather than the bubble peaks of 1998-99, risks are mounting—from geopolitical tensions and rising debt to market fragility highlighted by the VIX.

BofA points to opportunities in Europe, China, and Japan but cautions that volatility, trade disputes, and macroeconomic uncertainty will shape the next leg of the market cycle.

Below are the 14 lessons that BofA highlighted.

1. 2024 was a strong year for markets, but it might only be the beginning.

2. The market’s performance in 2024 looked more like the steady gains of 1996-97 than the bubble peaks of 1998-99.

3. In a bubble environment, market leadership can persist for longer than investors can afford to stay underweight.

4. However, the combination of strong momentum and high valuations is already too stretched to avoid a potential bust.

5. The has shown that markets remain fragile, and a major shock may be overdue.

6. August 2024 suggests buying market dips and locking in volatility spikes; using smarter strategies like skewed delta positioning may be key for 2025.

7. Rising debt levels and persistent inflation mean bond vigilantes remain the most visible macroeconomic tail risk.

8. Market fragility, faster reactions, and elevated valuations suggest a repeat of the calm volatility seen in 2017 is unlikely.

9. A Trump election victory has reignited concerns around tariffs, with European companies favored by dollar strength potentially becoming the next trade targets.

10. European equities remain cheap and unloved—investors should be cautious about being caught short, as fewer crowded trades mean less volatility pain.

11. China’s outperformance over Japan in 2024 could continue if U.S. interest rates decline.

12. VIX options data indicates that positioning risks in the market have not gone away.

13. Eurozone bank dividends have outperformed the for much of the past year; investors may need to hedge against a different outcome in 2025.

14. The risk of sharp movements in the Japanese yen, driven by volatility, could cause instability for the in 2025.

Stock Markets

Class Action Lawsuit Reminder WOLF: Kessler Topaz Meltzer & Check, LLP Reminds Wolfspeed, Inc. (WOLF) Investors – A Securities Fraud Class Action Lawsuit Has Been Filed

Published

38 mins ago

December 22, 2024

RADNOR, PA. – (NewMediaWire) – December 21, 2024 – The law firm of Kessler Topaz Meltzer & Check, LLP (www.ktmc.com) informs investors that a securities class action lawsuit has been filed against Wolfspeed (NYSE:), Inc. (Wolfspeed) (NYSE: WOLF) on behalf of those who purchased or otherwise acquired Wolfspeed securities between August 16, 2023, and November 6, 2024, inclusive (the Class Period). The lead plaintiff deadline is January 17, 2025.

CONTACT KESSLER TOPAZ MELTZER & CHECK, LLP:

If you suffered Wolfspeed losses, you may CLICK HERE or go to: https://www.ktmc.com/new-cases/wolfspeed-inc?utm_source=PR&utm_medium=link&utm_campaign=wolf&mktm=r

You can also contact attorney Jonathan Naji, Esq. by calling (484) 270-1453 or by email at info@ktmc.com .

DEFENDANTS ALLEGED MISCONDUCT:

The complaint alleges that, throughout the Class Period, Defendants made false and/or misleading statements and/or failed to disclose that: (1) Wolfspeeds optimistic claims of potential growth of its Mohawk Valley fabrication facility and general demand for Wolfspeeds 200mm wafers in the electronic vehicle market fell short of reality; and (2) Wolfspeed had overstated demand for its key product and placed undue reliance on purported design wins while the Mohawk Valley facilitys growth had begun to taper before recognizing the $100 million revenue per quarter allegedly achievable with only 20% utilization of the fabrication, let alone the promised $2 billion revenue purportedly achievable by the facility.

Please CLICK HERE to view our video or copy and paste this link into your browser: https://youtu.be/zMLfnSRjg2Y

THE LEAD PLAINTIFF PROCESS:

Wolfspeed investors may, no later than January 17, 2025, seek to be appointed as a lead plaintiff representative of the class through Kessler Topaz Meltzer & Check, LLP or other counsel, or may choose to do nothing and remain an absent class member. A lead plaintiff is a representative party who acts on behalf of all class members in directing the litigation. The lead plaintiff is usually the investor or small group of investors who have the largest financial interest and who are also adequate and typical of the proposed class of investors. The lead plaintiff selects counsel to represent the lead plaintiff and the class and these attorneys, if approved by the court, are lead or class counsel. Your ability to share in any recovery is not affected by the decision of whether or not to serve as a lead plaintiff.

Kessler Topaz Meltzer & Check, LLP encourages Wolfspeed investors who have suffered significant losses to contact the firm directly to acquire more information.

ABOUT KESSLER TOPAZ MELTZER & CHECK, LLP:

Kessler Topaz Meltzer & Check, LLP prosecutes class actions in state and federal courts throughout the country and around the world. The firm has developed a global reputation for excellence and has recovered billions of dollars for victims of fraud and other corporate misconduct. All of our work is driven by a common goal: to protect investors, consumers, employees and others from fraud, abuse, misconduct and negligence by businesses and fiduciaries. The complaints in this action were not filed by Kessler Topaz Meltzer & Check, LLP. For more information about Kessler Topaz Meltzer & Check, LLP please visit www.ktmc.com .

CONTACT:

Kessler Topaz Meltzer & Check, LLP

Jonathan Naji, Esq.

(484) 270-1453

280 King of Prussia Road

Radnor, PA 19087

info@ktmc.com

May be considered attorney advertising in certain jurisdictions. Past results do not guarantee future outcomes.

View the original release on www.newmediawire.com

Stock Markets

Starbucks workers’ union strikes across US as talks hit impasse

Published

38 mins ago

December 22, 2024

By Savyata Mishra, Gursimran Mehar and Renee Hickman

(Reuters) -Some members of the Starbucks (NASDAQ:) workers’ union that represents more than 10,000 baristas walked off their jobs in multiple U.S. cities on Friday, citing unresolved issues over wages, staffing and schedules.

The five-day strike, which began on Friday and closed Starbucks cafes in Los Angeles, Chicago and Seattle, will expand to Columbus (WA:), Denver, and Pittsburgh through Saturday, the union said in a statement.

This is the latest in a series of labor actions that have picked up pace across service industries following a period when workers at manufacturers in the automotive, aerospace and rail industries won substantial concessions from employers.

At Starbucks, the Workers United union, which represents employees at 525 stores across the U.S., said late on Thursday that walkouts would escalate daily, and could reach “hundreds of stores” nationwide by Christmas Eve.

“It’s estimated that 10 stores out of 10,000 company-operated stores did not open today,” Starbucks said, adding that there was no significant impact to store operations on Friday.

Around 20 people joined a picket line at a Starbucks location on Chicago’s north side, buffeted by snow and wind, but cheering in response to the honking horns of passing cars.

A few confused customers tried to walk into the closed store before strikers began chanting, but union member Shep Searl said the reaction had been mostly positive.

Searl said 100% of the unionized workers at the Starbucks location in Chicago’s Edgewater neighborhood were participating in the strike, and according to the workers, they have been subject to numerous unfair labor practices including write-ups, “captive-audience” meetings and firings.

The union member said they made about $21 an hour and added, “that would have been a great wage in 2013”.

It is an inadequate wage, the baristas said, given inflation and the high cost of living in a large city, especially since they rarely get 40-hour work weeks.

WORKERS SNUB OFFER

Negotiations between the company and Workers United began in April, based on an established framework agreed upon in February, which could also help resolve numerous pending legal disputes.

The company said on Thursday it has held more than nine bargaining sessions with the union since April, and reached more than 30 agreements on “hundreds of topics”, including economic issues.

The Seattle-headquartered firm said it is ready to continue negotiations, claiming the union delegates prematurely ended the bargaining session this week.

The union, however, said in a Facebook (NASDAQ:) post on Friday that Starbucks had yet to present a serious economic proposal with less than two weeks remaining until the year-end contract deadline.

The workers’ group also snubbed an offer of no immediate wage hike and a guarantee of a 1.5% increase in future years.

“Workers United proposals call for an immediate increase in the minimum wage of hourly partners by 64%, and by 77% over the life of a three-year contract. This is not sustainable,” Starbucks said on Friday.

In response to Starbucks’ statement on the proposals, Michelle Eisen, a Starbucks barista and bargaining delegate, said, “Starbucks’ characterization of our proposals is misleading and they know it. We are ready to finalize a framework that includes new investments in baristas in the first year of contracts”.

Separately, the baristas’ union said on Friday that it filed a new labor practice charge against the coffee house, alleging Starbucks “refused to bargain and engaged in bad faith bargaining” over economic issues.

Hundreds of complaints have been filed with the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB), accusing Starbucks of unlawful labor practices such as firing union supporters and closing stores during labor campaigns. Starbucks has denied wrongdoing and said it respects the right of workers to choose whether to unionize.

WORKING ON A TURNAROUND

Last month, the NLRB said that Starbucks broke the law by telling workers at its flagship Seattle cafe that they would lose benefits if they joined a union.

“It’s (the strike) taking place during one of the busiest times of the year for Starbucks, which could magnify its impact while bringing unwanted public scrutiny into the company’s labor practices,” Emarketer analyst Rachel Wolff said.

The coffee chain is working on a turnaround under its newly appointed top boss, Brian Niccol, who aims to restore “coffee house culture” by overhauling cafes and simplifying its menu among other measures.

“Given how much Starbucks is already struggling to win over customers, it can ill afford any negative publicity – or impact to sales – that the strike could bring,” Wolff said.

The Starbucks workers’ strike comes in the same week as Amazon.com (NASDAQ:) workers at seven U.S. facilities walking off the job on Thursday, during the holiday shopping rush.

There were 33 work stoppages in 2023, the most since 2000, though far lower than in past decades, data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed.