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Commodities

Oil up 5th week ahead of OPEC meet; resistance building

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Oil up 5th week ahead of OPEC meet; resistance building
© Reuters.

Investing.com – Non-stop chanting about Saudi output cuts; forecast-beating U.S. economic growth and fewer Americans filing unemployment claims despite moderating jobs growth — oil has little reason not to rally.

New York-traded West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, crude, along with London-based Brent oil both finished up for a fifth straight week, riding the rhetoric that supply was getting critically tight versus supply — although weekly petroleum data from the U.S. government barely supported that notion.

But after a gain of as much as 14% for July alone, the rally is beginning to show some strain. 

The market treaded water most of Friday before settling higher towards the end. Earlier, longs in the game appeared undecided on whether to take profit and re-enter with new positions on Monday or hold on hold for another week till next Friday’s OPEC meeting where more jawboning on oil prices was expected.

“OPEC knows it has a good thing going and it’s unlikely to pass up on the opportunity to use the hailer again to drive home the messaging of the perma cuts by the Saudis,” said John Kilduff, partner at New York energy hedge fund Again Capital. “Oil bulls also know that the cuts mantra will be echoing all of next week and that explains why so few want to take profit in today’s session.”

The Saudis have pledged to take an additional million barrels per day off their production for all this month — and possibly forever — if that meant keeping the market above $80 a barrel at any time. 

That promise is a powerful motivator for oil bulls as Saudi production would theoretically drop by a total of 2.5 million barrels daily from their norm of 9.5 million a day. With cuts pledged by Russia and nine other oil producers participating in the production squeeze by the 13-member OPEC, the market is missing at least 4.0 million barrels per day in daily supply.

Despite the widely-bandied about production cut numbers, weekly petroleum inventory data released by the U.S. government show a market getting by each week with more supply than thought — as well as light demand for fuel in what ought to be runaway consumption for the summer. 

At Friday’s close, for delivery in September settled up 49 cents, or 0.6%, at $80.58 a barrel. The U.S. crude benchmark hit a new three-month high of $80.69 during the session, extending Thursday’s peak. For the week, it rose 4.6% after a cumulative gain of 11.4% over four prior weeks. With just another session left for July, WTI was also up 14% for the month. 

for October delivery settled up 75 cents, or 0.9%, at $84.99 per barrel. The global crude benchmark finished the week up 4.8%, adding to the prior four-week gain of 9.8%. For July, Brent showed a gain of more than 12%.

While there is no immediate threat of a reversal to the oil rally — not with an OPEC meeting round the corner — WTI was slowly headed toward the key resistance of $86, said Sunil Kumar Dixit, chief technical strategist at SKCharting.com.

“Holding above the 5-day EMA of $79.10 is a precondition for continuation of current bullish momentum,” Dixit said, referring to the Exponential Moving Average. 

He said the next immediate target of oil longs would be the 100-week SMA, or Simple Moving Average, of $85.30 and the monthly Middle Bollinger Band of $86.40

“These two levels are likely to act as the resistance zone in mid-term,” he added.

Commodities

Factbox-How investors buy gold and what drives the market

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(Reuters) – Gold hit a record high above $2,600 per ounce on Friday, as the prospect of more U.S. interest rate cuts and global geo-political uncertainty boosted its appeal.

Bullion has risen more than 26% so far this year, and as market bulls lock in further gains, another milestone of $3,000 per ounce is in focus.

Here are the different avenues for investing in gold:

SPOT MARKET

Large buyers and institutional investors usually buy gold from big banks. Prices in the spot market are determined by real-time supply and demand dynamics.

London is the most influential hub for the market, largely because of the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA). The LBMA sets standards for gold trading and provides a framework for the OTC (over-the-counter) market, facilitating trades among banks, dealers, and institutions.

China, India, the Middle East and the United States are other major gold trading centres.

FUTURES MARKET

Investors can also get exposure to gold via futures exchanges, where people buy or sell a particular commodity at a fixed price on a particular date in future.

COMEX (Commodity Exchange Inc), a part of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), is the largest market in terms of trading volumes.

Shanghai Futures Exchange, China’s leading commodities exchange, also offers gold futures contracts. The Tokyo Commodity exchange, popularly known as TOCOM, is another big player in the Asian gold market.

EXCHANGE TRADED PRODUCTS

Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) or Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) issue securities backed by physical metal and allow people to gain exposure to the underlying gold prices without taking delivery of the metal itself. [GOL/ETF]

ETFs have become a major category of investment demand for the precious metal.

Global physically backed gold ETFs attracted a fourth consecutive month of inflows in August after North American and Europe-listed funds increased holdings, the World Gold Council (WGC) said.

BARS AND COINS

Retail consumers can buy gold from metals traders selling bars and coins in an outlet or online. Both gold bars and coins are effective means of investing in physical gold.

DRIVERS:

INVESTORS AND MARKET SENTIMENT

Rising interest from investment funds in recent years has been a major factor behind bullion’s price moves.

Sentiment driven by market trends, news, and global events can also lead to speculative buying or selling of gold.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES

Gold is a popular hedge against currency market volatility. It has traditionally moved in the opposite direction to the U.S. dollar as weakness in the U.S. unit makes dollar-priced gold cheaper for holders of other currencies and vice versa.

MONETARY POLICIES AND POLITICAL TENSIONS

The precious metal is widely considered a “safe haven”, bought during uncertain times in a flight to quality.

Major geopolitical events, such as extended conflicts in the Middle East and Europe have added to uncertainties for global investors and burnished gold’s appeal.

Policy decisions from global central banks also influence gold’s trajectory. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, since it pays no interest.

Gold’s latest rally was triggered after the U.S. Federal Reserve began its easing cycle with an outsized half-percentage-point cut on Wednesday.

CENTRAL BANK GOLD RESERVES

Central banks hold gold as part of their reserves. Buying or selling of the metal by the banks can influence prices.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: One kilo gold bars are pictured at the plant of gold and silver refiner and bar manufacturer Argor-Heraeus in Mendrisio, Switzerland, July 13, 2022. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse/File Photo

Central bank demand has been robust in recent years because of ongoing macroeconomic and political uncertainty, analysts have said.

More central banks plan to add to their gold reserves within a year despite high prices for the precious metal, the World Gold Council (WGC) said in its annual survey in June.

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Commodities

Oil prices drift lower, but set for weekly gains after hefty Fed cut

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Investing.com– Oil prices retreated Friday, but were still headed for a weekly gain as a bumper U.S. interest rate cut helped quell some fears of slowing demand. 

At 08:20 ET (12:20 GMT),  fell 0.6% to $74.47 a barrel, while dropped 0.5% to $70.79 a barrel. 

Oil heads for weekly gains on rate cut cheer 

Crude prices have staged a strong recovery from near three-year lows hit earlier in September, with a bulk of their rebound coming this week as the dollar retreated on a by the Federal Reserve.

was trading up about 3.95% this week, while WTI futures were up 4.4%. 

Increased tensions in the Middle East also aided crude, after Israel allegedly exploded pagers and walkie talkies belonging to Hezbollah members, sparking vows of retaliation. Fighting in and around Gaza also continued. 

A softer aided crude prices after the Fed cut interest rates by the top end of market expectations and announced an easing cycle, which traders bet will help spur economic growth in the coming quarters.

Lower rates usually bode well for economic activity, which in turn is expected to buoy crude demand. 

China demand concerns persist 

But China remained a key point of contention for crude markets, as economic readings from the world’s biggest oil importer showed little signs of improvement. 

The People’s Bank of China kept unchanged on Friday, despite mounting calls on Beijing to unlock more stimulus for the economy.

Data released earlier in September showed Chinese refinery output slowed for a fifth straight month in August, while the country’s oil imports also remained mostly weak. 

Concerns over China dragged oil prices to a near three-year low earlier this month, and have limited any major recovery in crude.

“China has obviously been the key concern when it comes to demand, but there have also been reports of refiners in Europe cutting run rates due to poor margins,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

(Ambar Warrick contributed to this article.)

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Commodities

Oil prices set to end week higher after US rate cut

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By Arunima Kumar

(Reuters) -Oil prices eased on Friday, but were on track to register gains for a second straight week following a large cut in U.S. interest rates and declining global stockpiles.

Brent futures were down 50 cents, or 0.67%, at $74.38 a barrel at 1004 GMT while U.S. WTI crude futures fell 48 cents, or 0.65%, at $71.47.

Still, both benchmarks were up 3.7% and 4% respectively on the week.

Prices have been recovering after Brent fell below $69 for the first time in nearly three years on Sept. 10.

“U.S. interest cuts have supported risk sentiment, weakened the dollar and supported crude this week,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.

“However, it takes time until rate cuts support economic activity and oil demand growth,” he added, regarding crude’s more muted performance so far on Friday.

Prices rose more than 1% on Thursday following the U.S. central bank’s decision to cut interest rates by half a percentage point on Wednesday.

Interest rate cuts typically boost economic activity and energy demand, but some also see it as a sign of a weak U.S. labour market.

The Fed also projected a further half-point rate cut by year-end, a full point next year and a half-point trim in 2026.

“Easing monetary policy helped reinforce expectations that the U.S. economy will avoid a downturn,” ANZ Research analysts said.

Also supporting prices were a decline in inventories, which fell to a one-year low last week. [EIA/S]

A counter-seasonal oil market deficit of around 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) will support prices in the $70 to $75 a barrel range during the next quarter, Citi analysts said on Thursday, but added prices could plunge in 2025.

Crude prices were also being supported by rising tensions in the Middle East. Walkie-talkies used by Lebanese armed group Hezbollah exploded on Wednesday following similar explosions of pagers the previous day.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A pump jack drills oil crude from the Yates Oilfield in West Texas’s Permian Basin, near Iraan, Texas, U.S., March 17, 2023. REUTERS/Bing Guan/File Photo

Security sources have said the Israeli spy agency Mossad was responsible, but Israeli officials have not commented on the attacks.

China’s slowing economy also weighed on market sentiment, with refinery output in China slowing for a fifth month in August and industrial output growth hitting a five-month low.

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