Economy
Moody’s lifts 2023 U.S. growth forecast, cuts China’s for 2024
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: People walk in Liberty State Park while the Manhattan skyline is visible in the background, in Jersey City, New Jersey, U.S., July 3, 2023. REUTERS/Amr Alfiky
By Marc Jones
LONDON (Reuters) – Credit rating agency Moody’s (NYSE:) raised its 2023 U.S. economic growth forecast on Friday but cut its estimate next year for China, saying that while the risk of a recession had fallen in the United States, China’s challenges were mounting.
“We have raised our growth forecast for the United States’ economy to 1.9% in 2023 from 1.1% in our May outlook, acknowledging the strong underlying economic momentum,” Moody’s said in a report.
The firm, now the only big three agency to have a top notch triple A rating for the U.S. following Fitch’s downgrade last month, kept its 2024 growth forecast at 1%, saying that high interest rates would act as a brake on the economy.
“We believe that it will be difficult for the Fed to achieve a sustained fall in inflation to its 2.0% target if current economic conditions persist,” Moody’s said.
“A few quarters of below-trend growth is required, in our view, to prevent overheating.”
In contrast, it said China was facing “considerable growth challenges” stemming from weak business and consumer confidence amid economic and policy uncertainty, continued property sector woes and an aging working population.
Moody’s kept its growth projection for this year at 5% but cut its 2024 forecast to 4.0% from 4.5% previously. It rates China at A1 with a stable outlook, which is four notches below the U.S.’s top Aaa grade.
“Data from China suggest that the economic recovery from a prolonged zero-COVID policy remains muted, as the reopening momentum seen in March, April and May appears to be waning,” Moody’s said in its report.
“We believe that low consumer confidence is holding back household spending, and economic and policy uncertainty will continue to weigh on business decisions”.
© Reuters. Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina attends a news conference in Moscow, Russia June 14, 2019. REUTERS/Shamil Zhumatov/File Photo
MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia’s central bank will need two to three months to make sure that inflation is steadily declining before taking any decision on interest rate cuts, the bank’s governor Elvira Nabiullina told RBC media on Sunday.
The central bank raised its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 16% earlier in December, hiking for the fifth consecutive meeting in response to stubborn inflation, and suggested that its tightening cycle was nearly over.
Nabiullina said it was not yet clear when exactly the regulator would start cutting rates, however.
“We really need to make sure that inflation is steadily decreasing, that these are not one-off factors that can affect the rate of price growth in a particular month,” she said.
Nabiullina said the bank was taking into account a wide range of indicators but primarily those that “characterize the stability of inflation”.
“This will take two or three months or more – it depends on how much the wide range of indicators that characterize sustainable inflation declines,” she said.
The bank will next convene to set its benchmark rate on Feb. 16.
The governor also said the bank should have started monetary policy tightening earlier than in July, when it embarked on the rate-hiking cycle.
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Workers walk past an under-construction area with completed office towers in the background, in Shenzhen’s Qianhai new district, Guangdong province, China August 25, 2023. REUTERS/David Kirton/File Photo
SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China’s top planning body said on Saturday it had identified a second batch of public investment projects, including flood control and disaster relief programmes, under a bond issuance and investment plan announced in October to boost the economy.
With the latest tranche, China has now earmarked more than 800 billion yuan of its 1 trillion yuan ($140 billion) in additional government bond issuance in the fourth quarter, as it focuses on fiscal steps to shore up the flagging economy.
The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said in a statement on Saturday it had identified 9,600 projects with planned investment of more than 560 billion yuan.
China’s economy, the world’s second largest, is struggling to regain its footing post-COVID-19 as policymakers grapple with tepid consumer demand, weak exports, falling foreign investment and a deepening real estate crisis.
The 1 trillion yuan in additional bond issuance will widen China’s 2023 budget deficit ratio to around 3.8 percent from 3 percent, the state-run Xinhua news agency has said.
“Construction of the projects will improve China’s flood control system, emergency response mechanism and disaster relief capabilities, and better protect people’s lives and property, so it is very significant,” the NDRC said.
The agency said it will coordinate with other government bodies to make sure that funds are allocated speedily for investment and that high standards of quality are maintained in project construction.
($1 = 7.1315 renminbi)
© Reuters. Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina attends a news conference in Moscow, Russia June 14, 2019. REUTERS/Shamil Zhumatov/File Photo
MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia’s central bank will need two to three months to make sure that inflation is steadily declining before taking any decision on interest rate cuts, the bank’s governor Elvira Nabiullina told RBC media on Sunday.
The central bank raised its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 16% earlier in December, hiking for the fifth consecutive meeting in response to stubborn inflation, and suggested that its tightening cycle was nearly over.
Nabiullina said it was not yet clear when exactly the regulator would start cutting rates, however.
“We really need to make sure that inflation is steadily decreasing, that these are not one-off factors that can affect the rate of price growth in a particular month,” she said.
Nabiullina said the bank was taking into account a wide range of indicators but primarily those that “characterize the stability of inflation”.
“This will take two or three months or more – it depends on how much the wide range of indicators that characterize sustainable inflation declines,” she said.
The bank will next convene to set its benchmark rate on Feb. 16.
The governor also said the bank should have started monetary policy tightening earlier than in July, when it embarked on the rate-hiking cycle.
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