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Bitcoin UTXOs echoing March 2020 ‘black swan’ crash — New research

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Bitcoin (BTC) is recovering from a “black swan” event last rivaled by the March 2020 COVID-19 crash, data suggests.

In one of its Quicktake posts on Sep. 7, on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant revealed a major spike in loss-making unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs).

CryptoQuant: Bitcoin UTXOs in Loss “mirror” March 2020

Bitcoin may be worrying market participants with current BTC price weakness, but on-chain data paints an intriguing picture of activity “under the hood.”

UTXOs represent BTC left over after an on-chain transaction is executed. CryptoQuant’s UTXOs in Loss metric tracks when large numbers of these UTXOs are worth more than they were when the BTC was originally bought.

Currently, more of these are in loss compared to their original acquisition price than at any time since March 2020.

At the time, BTC/USD dropped 60% to its lowest levels since March 2019 — lows which were never seen again.

Considering the current data from UTXOs in Loss, CryptoQuant contributor Woominkyu ventured that, like March 2020, Bitcoin may be seeing, or already bouncing back from, a curveball selling event.

He summarized:

“Given that the current level of the ‘UTXOs in loss’ indicator mirrors that of the Black Swan event between March and April 2020 (due to the Coronavirus), those anticipating another Black Swan event might want to consider whether we are already in the midst of the event they are waiting for.”

Bitcoin UTXOs in loss chart. Source: CryptoQuant

In percentage terms, 38% of UTXOs were in loss at the end of August, a figure last seen in April 2020.

“When many UTXOs are in loss, investors might be more inclined to sell, hinting at market anxiety. Conversely, when most UTXOs are profitable, it suggests an optimistic outlook and a stronger holding sentiment among investors,” Woominkyu added.

Underwater Bitcoin speculators grow

Bitcoin meanwhile remains locked in a tight range amid a lack of overall BTC price trend.

Related: Bitcoin speculators now own the least BTC since $69K all-time highs

With neither a breakout nor breakdown willing to complete, cost basis data likewise shows current spot price caught between the acquisition prices of various investor cohorts.

This “Realized Price” — the price at which the supply last moved, divided by age group — shows that short-term holders fall into aggregate loss when BTC/USD is below around $27,000.

A full capitulation event, however, has yet to be recorded on-chain.

Bitcoin Realized Price chart (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Cryptocurrency

BTC Crash Impending? Jim Cramer Calls Bitcoin a ‘Winner’

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The crypto community mourns on X as the 2024 bull market seems to be over. No, this is not a drill, Jim Cramer said on national TV that bitcoin is a winner and he advised people to own BTC.

If this isn’t a clear bear signal, we don’t know what is.

Bitcoin Is a ‘Winner’

The host of CNBC’s Mad Money has frequently outlined somewhat controversial viewpoints and advice in his show. His success rate, at least when it comes down to crypto, has been… mixed. Actually, he has changed his mind more times than ‘a girl changes clothes,’ as Katy Perry would say.

We will not go down the long road of his pro- and anti-bitcoin and crypto statements, but all we are going to say is that there is an inverse Cramer account and trading strategy on X, and even Elon Musk has previously mocked him. Oh, just for reference – he said a few weeks ago that the market was anticipating a win for Kamala Harris in the 24 US presidential elections.

During a show from the past business week, Cramer praised MicroStrategy’s bitcoin strategy, which has brought impressive benefits for the company since embracing BTC as a reserve asset in August 2020. Its stock price, despite the recent correction, has skyrocketed and MSTR sometimes has bigger trading volumes than the likes of Apple and Amazon.

After highlighting MSTR, Cramer said, “All I can tell you is own Bitcoin, that’s a winner.” In the future, people will go back to this moment to point out where everything went wrong for crypto.

Bear Market Starts?

Given his historical flops when trying to determine a market top or bottom, the crypto community was quick to highlight his praising words for BTC as the beginning of the end. Many analysts and commentators warned investors that this is a proper sell signal and they should run for their lives.

It’s probably not that surprising now that the asset failed to breach $100,000 yesterday. It all makes sense now.

Joking aside, BTC indeed came around $200 away from tapping that level but was stopped and pushed south slightly. If this spectacular rally is indeed over now, all fingers will point to Cramer’s words.

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Did a Shanghai Court Just Legalize Bitcoin in China?

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Bitcoin has been very popular in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, and Latin America. The cryptocurrency has also enjoyed great success in neighboring South Korea and Japan.

Cryptocurrency policy in China has been varied—from allowing citizens and residents of mainland China to own crypto, to banning the asset class in 2021. It would seem a court ruling in the Municipality of Shanghai has recently opened the door for Chinese citizens to own cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.

Court In China Legalizes Crypto Ownership

Judge Sun Jie of the Shanghai Songjiang People’s Court set forth some new jurisprudence on cryptocurrency this week. The South China Morning Post reported Thursday that the court handed down a decision clarifying the legality of cryptocurrency under Chinese federal law.

The Shanghai judge wrote that it is “not illegal for individuals to hold cryptocurrency” in China. Moreover, the decision categorized the asset class as a form of property.

Sun clarified that China’s strict regulations on disorderly behavior in cryptocurrency markets does not impose a total ban on ownership. In fact, these regulations only make sense if it is legal to own crypto in the country.

“That is why laws and regulations always maintain a high-pressure crackdown on speculative activities in cryptocurrency trading,” Sun wrote.

How to classify cryptocurrencies has plagued government financial regulators the world over since Bitcoin’s 2009 debut. Crypto tokens are classified as property in the U.S. by the Internal Revenue Service, which collects federal income taxes.

Chinese Rush Into Bitcoin in 2024

The ruling could signify the beginning of a more tolerant cryptocurrency policy in China moving forward. Despite what many consider a crypto ban in the country, miners there make up over 50% of the Bitcoin network’s hash power.

Meanwhile, Chinese Bitcoin investors with a little technical know-how have been working around the law. Despite its dubious legal status, a few Chinese Internet users have fled a five-year stock winter for cryptocurrency.

The average Bitcoin price on crypto exchanges consolidated above the $98,300 handle by 6:00 AM Saturday morning in Beijing, China.

With volume steadily building as the price increased over the day and week, the world’s first cryptocurrency has a real pressure cooker of a market going here. Many analysts expect an increase to a new $100,000 ATH any day now.

Financial advisory firm deVere Group’s CEO Nigel Green said in an article that appeared in the Independent Friday, “The $100,000 milestone, which once seemed bold, now looks conservative. I believe bitcoin could reach $120,000 in the first quarter of 2025 as the rally gains further traction.”

Polymarket, Ethereum’s largest betting market, gave BTCUSD a 93% chance Thursday of reaching $100,000 in 2024 with $6.8 million in betting volume.

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Casa CEO Exposes Shocking Phishing Scam Targeting Wealthy Crypto Users

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Nick Neuman, the CEO of Bitcoin storage solutions provider Casa, recently shared an encounter with a phishing scammer impersonating Coinbase support to steal from high-value cryptocurrency holders.

In a November 20 post on X, Neuman described how he played along during a call to uncover the depth of the scheme.

Preying on Wealthy Crypto Holders

The recorded conversation started as a seemingly ordinary phone call with the con artist posing as a Coinbase support agent. He informed Neuman of a “canceled password change request” and directed him to click on a suspicious email link.

However, when the Casa co-founder revealed his identity and started questioning the scammer, he dropped the act. But instead of ending the call, the grifter openly shared the inner workings of their criminal operation.

“We hit like $35,000 two days ago,” the impersonator gloated, describing how their scheme exclusively targets individuals with crypto holdings worth at least $50,000. “We don’t call poor people,” he bragged.

According to him, their victims are often well-heeled and highly educated professionals, including software engineers and corporate executives in the crypto space.

“We actually got a dude who was a Chinese software engineer,” said the swindler. “You’d think a software engineer wouldn’t fall for this,” he added, claiming they stole $40,000 from that individual.

Further, he explained that they don’t rely on luck but consistency, putting in calls daily and getting hits four or five times a week, each netting five figures at a minimum.

How the Scheme Works

The fraudster detailed how the scams generally work, describing the range of sophisticated and fear-driven methods they use to deceive potential victims.

For instance, they might claim a password change request was canceled, like they did with Neuman. They would then convince their target to click a malicious link embedded in a fake notification they would send, ostensibly to resolve the password issue.

If a person were unfortunate enough to fall for the trick, the phishing pages would capture their sensitive data, including private keys, which the conmen then used to create new wallets and siphon funds.

To improve their odds, they supposedly employ auto-doxxing tools, spoofed emails resembling official Coinbase communication, and even leaked data from platforms like Unchained Capital to identify potential victims.

These tools allow them to target individuals precisely, often convincing them to send funds directly to wallets under the criminals’ control. Upon receiving the money, the swindlers use privacy-focused tools like Tornado Cash and Monero (XMR) to cover their tracks.

Neuman’s interaction with the trickster also sheds light on their motivation and audacity. The scammer boasted about being only a few thousand dollars shy of a $100,000 target he intended to reach within 30 days, with less than five days left until his self-imposed deadline.

It also showed the importance of crypto holders being extremely vigilant in their interactions as cases increase. Phishing ploys like these exploit trust and fear to deceive even seasoned professionals. As the scammer noted, “For some reason, people trust people over the phone.”

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