Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin futures open interest jumps by $1B: Manipulation or hedge?
Bitcoin’s (BTC) open interest on derivatives exchanges experienced a sudden surge of $1 billion on Sep. 18, prompting investors to question whether whales were accumulating in anticipation of the unsealing of Binance’s court filings.
However, a closer look at derivatives metrics suggests a more nuanced picture, as the funding rate did not exhibit clear signs of excessive buying demand.
The decision to unseal these documents was granted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which had accused Binance of non-cooperation despite previously agreeing to a consent order related to unregistered securities operations and other allegations.
The open interest spiked to $12.1 billion while Bitcoin’s price concurrently increased by 3.4%, the highest point in over two weeks at $27,430.
However, investors soon realized that, aside from a comment by the Binance.US auditor regarding the challenges of ensuring full collateralization, there was little concrete information revealed in the unsealed documents.
Later in the day, Federal Judge Zia Faruqui rejected the SEC’s request to inspect Binance.US’s technical infrastructure and share additional information. Nevertheless, the judge stipulated that Binance.US must furnish more details about its custody solution, casting doubt on whether Binance International ultimately controls these assets.
By the end of Sep. 18, Bitcoin’s open interest had receded to $11.3 billion as its price dropped by 2.4% to $26,770. This decline indicated that the entities behind the open interest surge were no longer inclined to maintain their positions.
These whales were likely disappointed with the court’s outcomes, or the price action may not have unfolded as expected. In any case, 80% of the open interest increase disappeared in less than 24 hours.
Futures’ buyers and sellers are matched at all times
It can be assumed that most of the demand for leverage was driven by bullish sentiment, as Bitcoin’s price climbed alongside the increase in open interest and subsequently plummeted as 80% of the contracts were closed. However, attributing cause and effect solely to Binance’s court rulings seems unwarranted for several reasons.
Firstly, no one anticipated that the unsealed documents would favor Binance or its CEO, Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, given that it was the SEC that had originally requested their release. Additionally, the Bitcoin futures contract funding rate, which gauges imbalances between long and short positions, remained largely stable throughout this period.
If there had indeed been an unforeseen demand surge of $1 billion in open interest, primarily driven by desperate buyers, it’s reasonable to assume that the funding rate would have spiked above 0.01%. However, quite the opposite unfolded on Sept. 19, as Bitcoin’s open interest expanded to $11.7 billion while the funding rate plunged to zero.
With Bitcoin’s price rallying above $27,200 during this second phase of open interest growth, it becomes increasingly evident that, regardless of the underlying motives, the price pressure tends to be upward. While the exact rationale may remain elusive, certain trading patterns could shed light on this movement.
Market makers’ hedge could explain OI spike
One plausible explanation could be the involvement of market makers executing buy orders on behalf of substantial clients. This would account for the initial enthusiasm in both the spot market and BTC futures, propelling the price higher. After the initial surge, the market maker becomes fully hedged, eliminating the need for further buying and leading to a price correction.
During the second phase of the trade, there is no impact on Bitcoi price, as the market maker must offload the BTC futures contracts and purchase spot Bitcoin. This results in a reduction in open interest and may disappoint some participants who were anticipating additional buying fervor.
Rather than hastily labeling every “Bart” formation as manipulation, it is advisable to delve into the operations of arbitrage desks and carefully analyze the BTC futures funding rate before jumping to conclusions. Thus, when there is no excessive demand for leveraged long positions, an increase in open interest does not necessarily signify a buying spree, as was the case on Sep. 18.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
TL;DR
- Due to recent growth, Solana and its projects have gained popularity.
- Ecosystem meme coins like Dogewifhat (WIF) and Bonk Inu (BONK) have seen significant declines after a substantial surge earlier this year.
The Unsurprising Leader
Solana and numerous projects built on it have brimming in popularity in 2024. Some factors that could have contributed to this might be SOL’s bull run at the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024, the growing community, and innovations in the ecosystem.
The crypto analytics platform Santiment recently outlined the top 10 Solana-based projects in terms of development activity in the past 30 days.
Somewhat expected, the first spot belongs to Solana itself, which collected a score of 186.33. It is worth noting that the protocol’s native token – SOL – has been experiencing a downfall since the end of July, plunging by approximately 30% and currently trading at around $127 (per Coingecko’s data).
Wormhole holds the second position with a ratio of 90.5. It acts as a bridge connecting various blockchain networks, such as Solana, Ethereum, BNB Smart Chain, and others. It enables users to transfer digital assets and data across these blockchains without a centralized intermediary.
Pyth Network is third, with a score of 68. It operates as a decentralized oracle network where multiple providers contribute to a collective data feed.
JITO and Neon round up the top 5 list. The other Solana-based projects down the line include Drift, Orca, Helium IOT, Helium Mobile, and Metaplex.
The Missing Ones
It is interesting to note that meme coins, which are part of Solana’s ecosystem, did not make the list. Such tokens, including dogwifhat (WIF), Bonk Inu (BONK), and many more, were among the top-trending topics in the crypto space at the start of the year due to their skyrocketing prices.
However, their progress has stalled as of late. WIF – the biggest Solana-based meme coin in terms of market capitalization – currently trades at around $1.52, representing more than a 70% decline from the ATH registered in April.
BONK (the second-largest) is worth approximately $0.00001666 as of the moment, or 60% less than the peak in May.
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Bitcoin’s nosedives continued in the past 24 hours as the asset slumped from an intraday high of $57,000 to under $53,000 within hours.
The altcoins are also in the red, and the total crypto market cap has dumped to $2 trillion for the first time in over a month.
BTC’s Troubles Keep Coming
The primary cryptocurrency lost the coveted $60,000 level last week, and the true downfall followed suit. Aside from a brief attempt to overcome that line on September 3, the bears have been predominantly in control, which culminated yesterday.
Before that, it was rejected a couple of times and marked lower daily highs. A relief rally came on Friday when the US released the job report for August, which showed that there was a slight decline in the unemployment rates.
BTC reacted quickly with a price increase from $55,500 to $57,000. However, that turned out to be a false breakout, and the cryptocurrency headed south immediately after. In a matter of minutes, it plummeted to $54,000 before the bears initiated another leg down that pushed it to a monthly low of $52,700 (on Bitstamp).
Despite recovering to just over $54,000 now, it is still 4% down on the day and more than 8% in the past seven days. Its market cap has plunged to $1.070 trillion, while its dominance over the alts is down to 53.5%.
Alts in Red Yet Again
The bearish scenario repeated once again, and the altcoins are back in red. Ethereum is among the leaders in this adverse trend, having lost over 4% of value. As a result, it now struggles at $2,250. BNB is down by 3%, XRP by 3%, and SOL by 2.5%.
DOGE has dumped the most from the larger-cap alts. The OG meme coin has seen 5% of its value evaporate over the past day and is below $0.1.
Further losses come from the likes of TON, BCH, SHIB, LTC, OKB, XMR, and many others.
The total crypto market cap has declined by another $50 billion and is down to $2 trillion on CG.
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Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has pledged to donate all Layer 2 (L2) tokens he holds to support public goods within the Ethereum ecosystem or broader charitable causes.
This announcement comes a few days after accusations that he had sold millions in Ether (ETH) for personal gain.
Vitalik Buterin Denies Profit Motive
Buterin was quick to respond to the allegations, emphasizing that he has not sold any ETH for personal profit since 2018. Instead, he clarified that any proceeds from his ETH sales have been directed toward projects that contribute to the Ethereum ecosystem or other charitable initiatives.
In a September 5 update, he expanded on his stance, pledging to donate all L2 tokens he holds, including not-yet-liquid assets, to support similar causes.
He wrote, “All proceeds will be donated, again either to support public goods within the Ethereum ecosystem or broader charity (e.g., biomedical R&D). I also do not intend to invest into L2s or other token projects in the foreseeable future.”
He explained that his aim in funding projects is to support initiatives he believes are important, particularly in situations where other parts of the ecosystem may not fully recognize their value.
The Allegations
On August 30, an X user accused him of selling over $2 million worth of ETH shortly after posting a positive update about Ethereum’s future.
Later on, Lookonchain also revealed that Vitalik had transferred 800 ETH, worth around $2 million, to a multi-signature wallet. Shortly after, the wallet swapped 190 ETH for 477,000 USDC.
Further analysis from Lookonchain indicated that on August 9, he had moved an additional 3,000 ETH, valued at over $8 million, to the same multi-sig wallet.
These transfers fueled speculation that the Ethereum co-founder was liquidating his Ether holdings to realize profits.
Buterin had previously disclosed that his entire Ether holdings came from the Ethereum pre-mining period, which allocated 11.9 million ETH (about 10% of the total supply) to early contributors. As one of them, he received 700,000 ETH for his role in the network’s creation.
According to blockchain tracker Arkham Intelligence, his current holdings amount to approximately 240,000 ETH. This is a reduction of around 460,000 ETH from his initial stash.
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