Cryptocurrency
Blockchain detectives: Mt. Gox collapse saw birth of Chainalysis
It’s been more than a decade since 850,000 BTC went missing from Mt. Gox, yet the collapse of the former exchange remains one of the most infamous black swan events of the cryptocurrency ecosystem.
While creditors of the defunct exchange are edging closer to some form of restitution, Mt. Gox’s demise ended up playing an important role in the development of tools to identify, track and tackle the illicit movements of funds through the wider cryptocurrency industry.
The search for answers and funds played a key role in the birth of crypto’s best-known blockchain analytics and tracing firm, Chainalysis, explains co-founder Michael Gronager.
Close to a decade later, Chainalysis’ analytics tools are being used by myriad private and public enterprises and institutions. From data analytics to pure law enforcement use cases, the firm’s services continue to prove influential — and sometimes controversial — across the industry.
Kraken the Mt Gox case
Gronager is a crypto OG, having previously co-founded cryptocurrency exchange Kraken. He got involved in blockchain analysis after Kraken went looking for a steady banking partner and met a wall of wariness over the lack of visibility in the cryptocurrency ecosystem along with KYC and money laundering concerns.
“These conversations with the banks, they all end in the same way. How do you do transaction monitoring? How do you track the funds you receive from someone that you are onboarding online?” Gronager tells Magazine.
The collapse of Mt. Gox around the same time presented another unique challenge for Gronager, who was tasked with figuring out what happened to the funds that Kraken and some of its clients had in the defunct exchange.
As explored in the book Tracers in the Dark, Gronager developed the tools that would lay the foundation for Chainalysis, with the nascent firm eventually appointed as the investigative team by Mt. Gox’s bankruptcy trustee in 2014. From there, Gronager and his team wasted no time putting the proverbial bits together to trace the missing funds.
Jonathan Levin, the second of three Chainalysis co-founders, also spoke with Magazine at the company’s Links’ conference in the Netherlands earlier this year. The Oxford economics masters graduate highlights the investigation as the starting point of Chainalysis’ wider service.
“We were given the Mt. Gox investigation, which was the largest bankruptcy case in crypto history, and that really was about following the money. If it’s all on the blockchain, how is it that no one can find it? And so, you know, we worked it out and cracked that case.”
Two Russian nationals would eventually be indicted in June 2023 by the United States Justice Department for allegedly hacking and laundering some 647,000 BTC from Mt. Gox. The Internal Revenue Service Criminal Investigations unit, which makes use of Chainalysis’ tools, is assisting in ongoing investigations.
Helping trace the movements of Bitcoin held by Mt. Gox proved that Chainalyis had the tools to solve complex cryptocurrency movements. Gronager also realized this was a service the world’s top crime-fighting institutions were crying out for.
“I realized in conversation with other people from the industry that worked with law enforcement that they had no clue. They didn’t know how to solve these things.”
The customer base grew rapidly after onboarding both private and public sector users, including exchanges and law enforcement agencies. As of September 2023, Chainalysis has 1,200 customers from the private sector and over 250 from public sector institutions.
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The go-to service for law enforcement
Chainalysis has become the go-to tracing solution for some of the best-known law enforcement organizations worldwide and has helped the IRS seize an estimated $10 billion worth of cryptocurrency related to criminal investigations. IRS Criminal Investigations (IRS-CI) Chief Jim Lee says the tools it offers are invaluable to trace cryptocurrency and interrogate data in myriad settings, from blockchains to darknet marketplaces.
“Think about all the data that I have working for the IRS. It may not be the most, but it’s the richest. Now I can take all this other data we have and then match it up against the records that I have. I mean, it’s just incredibly powerful, but it takes time, energy and money.”
Lee was also at the Links conference, participating in open and closed-door conversations with various governmental agencies and businesses in Amsterdam.
Gronager was reluctant to single out a stand-out investigation made possible with Chainalysis’ blockchain analytics, considering that its services have helped solve a litany of high-profile cases — from tracing cryptocurrencies that help bust child abuse material syndicates in South Korea to using its tools to help solve headline-grabbing Twitter hacks in 2020 that led to close to $1 million being stolen.
In that high-profile case, Chainalysis tools helped investigators link a Bitcoin scam being promulgated by various hacked Twitter accounts to three perpetrators accused of orchestrating the scheme. The mastermind of the scheme is a juvenile whose identity has not yet been revealed.
“12 days after, the case was solved, and that’s again showing that you can actually do things really, really fast by following the funds in crypto.”
Another highlight was assisting in the recovery of $30 million of the $650-million Axie Infinity hack in 2022, which Gronager believes made a statement to North Korean-linked hackers that crypto-related thefts might not be the cash cow they once were.
Controversy over Bitcoin Fog case
The ability to tie cryptocurrency wallets or funds to a specific person is hugely valuable in criminal investigations.
But the firm is not without its detractors, with critics suggesting that reliance on heuristics or assumptions about unidentifiable wallets can lead to inaccurate tracing and unlawful arrests.
A sizable contingent of Bitcoiners online has argued that this is the case in a legal battle involving the U.S. government and Roman Sterlingov, 35, who stands accused of operating Bitcoin mixer Bitcoin Fog.
Chainalysis’ tools were used to identify Sterlingov as the alleged orchestrator of the infamous and now defunct cryptocurrency mixer that the Justice Department claims moved over 1.2 million BTC worth $335 million over a decade.
Detractors argue that the DOJ’s case made certain assumptions about wallets and credentials allegedly linked to the early Bitcoin adopter and the eventual registration of the Bitcoin Fog domain that was tied to Sterlingov.
Sterlingov attorney Tor Ekeland claims the firm’s Reactor software is unscientific and unreliable, and flawed assumptions have falsely implicated Sterlingov. He argues that Chainalysis can’t identify its error rate. “This is junk science that doesn’t belong in a federal court,” Ekeland told a Sept. 7 court hearing.
Elizabeth Bisbee, head of investigations at Chainalysis Government Solutions, reportedly told the court she was unaware of any peer reviewed scientific papers attesting to the accuracy of Chainalysis Reactor.
The courts will ultimately decide whether there is enough reasonable doubt about Chainalysis’ methods in the case to convict. Chainalysis would not be drawn in our interviews to comment on any ongoing investigations or cases.
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Investigations 90% focused on public blockchains
Despite the controversy, Chainalysis has a lot of happy customers and has played a big role in the recovery of hacked funds. Erin Plante, VP of investigations at Chainalysis, manages a growing team of more than 120 investigators across 11 countries.
Plante, who has a wealth of experience working in cybercrime and financial investigation as a U.S. government contractor, says that 90% of their investigators are tasked with probes into incidents involving public blockchains like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
The Ronin Bridge investigation was a primary driver for the creation of her team, highlighting the importance of allocating human capital to trace funds in the immediate aftermath of a major hack.
“Getting in early and tracing funds early is so important and getting law enforcement involved early is how you’re most able to have successful recoveries.”
There has also been an evolution in the theme of investigations, with Plante recalling a plethora of darknet investigations around 2019 demanding a lot of their attention. Investigative efforts are now more focused on cybercrimes involving ransomware, national security threats from entities associated with North Korea and sanctions screening of entities involved in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
A key talking point in the conversations in Amsterdam was the inherent traceability of blockchain-based cryptocurrencies despite the advent of token mixing protocols, such as sanctioned Tornado Cash.
Plante notes that it is fairly straightforward to trace stolen funds through cross-chain bridges, with criminals typically converting tokens to ETH and then BTC, which is sent to mixers in an effort to obfuscate funds.
She says that mixers require significant amounts of liquidity to properly obfuscate funds, which has predominantly left Bitcoin mixers as the main option for criminals to launder money.
Chainalysis has a dedicated data intelligence team using specific tools to identify mixers using an algorithm that clusters wallets that are associated with the mixer service. An example of the algorithm at work was helping cluster some 50,000 addresses that were linked to the now sanctioned Sinbad mixer.
Between December 2022 and January 2023, North Korea-linked hackers sent 1,429 BTC worth $24.2 million to the mixer.
Plante reveals that Chainalysis had its clustering algorithm independently confirmed by a separate, covert FBI investigation that had been making use of dusting to trace how funds were being obfuscated by Chipmixer, another service that is widely believed to be the direct predecessor of Sinbad and its funds. Chipmixer was shut down in March 2023 over allegations that it had facilitated $3 billion in money laundering.
“We didn’t know the FBI was doing that, but it was picked up in our clustering, which verified the cluster. That verification, that’s very cool. That one will probably go to court, which is why we don’t talk about it.”
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Cryptocurrency
Pengu, Bonk Lead Top Meme Coin Gainers as Some Analysts Think Solaxy and Flockerz are Next to Pump
It’s been a wild week in the crypto market, with Bitcoin grabbing headlines as it soared to a new all-time high of $108,268 before crashing back under $100k. Meanwhile, meme coins have followed suit, with majors like Dogecoin climbing over $0.41 before falling to $0.325 today.
Behind the volatility in these headline-grabbing tokens, meme coins have been on a tear. The most explosive gains have come from newer tokens like $PENGU and Solana meme coins like Bonk, both of which have been working their way up the meme coin charts.
Meanwhile, meme coin ICOs like Flockerz and Solaxy are seeing increasing momentum.
Let’s take a closer look at all the action in the meme coin market as we head into the final stretch of 2024.
Meme Coin Sector Marches Upward, Led by $PENGU and $BONK
The meme coin sector spent much of early December extending its winning streak, adding more than $17 billion to its total market cap between December 1 and December 8. The sector’s valuation has fallen to $96 billion in recent days, mostly driven by Dogecoin’s losses.
But look beyond Dogecoin, and the meme coin market offers a very different picture. In the past 24 hours alone, Pepe is up 11.7%, Shiba Inu is up 8.4%, and Dogwifhat is up 5.3%.
The biggest winners of this upward trend have been tokens like Pudgy Penguins ($PENGU) and Bonk, which are up 11.2% and 12.3%, respectively, since yesterday.
Bonk’s gains helped it overtake $WIF to become the top Solana meme coin by market cap—a cat-and-mouse game the two tokens have played for months, and which Bonk looks increasingly likely to win.
Plus, technical analysis indicates there could be more gains for $BONK just around the corner. Using Elliott Wave analysis, @ManofBitcoin on X stated a potential pump to $0.000118 might come when Bonk breaks out of its current trend.
$BONK: The price has formed a wick to the downside but the daily candle closed above the trend line. So wave-4 is still valid. pic.twitter.com/3bz8iZ7EFX
— Man of Bitcoin (@Manofbitcoin) December 20, 2024
The gains in $PENGU are especially noteworthy because they represent continued momentum since the token listed on Binance on December 17. $PENGU is up nearly 500% since the listing and has a market cap of $1.8 billion, making it the 6th-largest meme coin overall within just days of its launch.
Meme coin traders and analysts have taken note of an emerging trend for which $PENGU is just the latest data point: Binance has the power to create winners out of emerging tokens in the meme coin market simply by listing them.
Figuring out which tokens the exchange will list next is now one of the best ways to find profits in the meme coin market.
Some Analysts Eye Emerging Meme Coins $SOLX and $FLOCK for Massive Gains
While it’s impossible to know which coins Binance’s listing teams have their eyes on next, a number of analysts are watching two emerging meme coins that they think could be destined for the exchange.
The first is Solaxy ($SOLX), a new project that plans to build the first Layer-2 scaling solution for Solana. While the $SOLX token is primarily a utility token, it makes a nod to the meme coin market by using a surfing, mustachioed Pepe as its mascot.
The $SOLX token presale is on now and has raised more than $4 million in less than a week, raising expectations that this project could be huge. A couple of analysts are certainly excited about Solaxy because of its potential to benefit from the meme coin supercycle.
The Solana blockchain already struggles from congestion issues, and a surge in meme coin trading could make these problems worse. Solaxy provides a solution for meme coin traders by offering a faster and cheaper Solana-based network for executions.
Another project on crypto some analysts’ radar is Flockerz ($FLOCK), a viral new meme coin that’s pioneering a vote-to-earn mechanism to engage and reward its community.
Under the vote-to-earn scheme, traditional staking rewards are thrown out the window. Instead, proposals for new development, partnerships, and how to use the $FLOCK treasury are voted on by the Flockerz community. Every time investors vote, they receive $FLOCK tokens as a reward.
This approach has the benefit of bringing the community together to build a more vibrant project while ensuring that investors get a real say in the project’s future through their $FLOCK tokens. Analysts like ClayBro are bullish on this approach, declaring Flockerz a ‘top meme coin to buy now.’
$FLOCK is also a hit with investors, who have poured more than $7 million into the Flockerz token presale so far. With that kind of backing, it’s likely that Binance might closely be watching this presale and could put its weight on the scales with a listing after the $FLOCK token launches.
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Cryptocurrency
Nigeria Arrests 792 in Landmark Crypto-Romance Scam Raid
Nigeria’s Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) on December 10 arrested 792 people linked to a massive crypto-romance scam operating out of Lagos.
The suspects, who included 148 Chinese, 40 Filipinos, and several other foreign nationals, were caught during a surprise raid at an imposing seven-story structure known as Big Leaf in the affluent Victoria Island neighborhood.
Sophisticated Scam Network Unveiled
According to information shared by the agency, the operation followed intelligence reports, which indicated that Big Leaf was a hub for fraudulent activities targeting victims around the globe.
Investigations revealed a highly organized network where foreign operatives collaborated with local accomplices to swindle unwitting individuals through romance and investment hoaxes.
The Nigerian recruits, chosen for their proficiency with computers, were reportedly trained for at least two weeks on how to impersonate foreign women and engage victims in romantic and business conversations.
They then created fake profiles on social media platforms such as WhatsApp, Instagram, and Telegram, which they used to lure targets to invest in bogus crypto schemes hosted on a platform called Yooto[.]com. The website required users to pay an activation fee starting from $35, with promises of high returns.
Per investigators, after the Nigerians initiated contact with potential victims and built their confidence, they handed over communication to the foreign operatives who then executed the scams. This division of labor ensured that the local accomplices were kept in the dark about the full extent of the criminal enterprise.
During their inquiries, authorities found at least 500 SIM cards and high-end computers on the premises, which were presumably used to maintain anonymity and target individuals primarily from North America and Europe.
Further, they stated that the Nigerian recruits received cash payments for their part in the con, with no documentation, helping to obscure the identity of the operation’s masterminds, who remain at large.
The agency is working with international partners to uncover the full extent of the scheme and any connections it may have to organized crime networks.
Large-Scale Crypto Fraud Schemes
Crypto scams have been on the rise recently, with a study by the Australian Cyber Security Centre (ACSC) revealing that Australians had lost nearly $270 million to fake investments.
Elsewhere, South Korean law enforcement apprehended 215 people accused of perpetrating a $232 million crypto rip-off. Among those arrested was a popular YouTuber with more than 600,000 followers who allegedly ran a phony investment consulting firm pushing a purported digital asset product promising 20-fold returns.
Also, in October, Hong Kong police dismantled a huge cross-border fraud operation that used deepfakes to lure men into deceptive crypto investments.
Like in the Nigerian case, the Hong Kong group, consisting of at least 27 individuals, operated from a building in the city’s Hung Hom area. Upon raiding the facility, authorities recovered computers, mobile phones, and about $25,000 in suspected criminal proceeds.
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Cryptocurrency
Ethereum Price Analysis: Following a 15% Weekly Crash, What’s Next for ETH?
Ethereum has once again failed to reclaim the critical $4K resistance level, leading to a notable decline in price. However, the cryptocurrency has now reached a significant support zone, where a rebound followed by consolidation is anticipated.
By Shayan
The Daily Chart
Ethereum’s $4K price region has proven to be a critical resistance zone over the past year, consistently halting bullish advances due to strong selling pressure.
Most recently, the price faced another rejection at this level, triggering a significant sell-off. This decline was further fueled by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks, suggesting the central bank might pause its current policy of lowering key interest rates.
Despite this setback, ETH has found support at the $3K level, a crucial price zone, leading to a rebound above the $3.5K threshold. Currently, the cryptocurrency is consolidating within the $3.5K–$4K range, with expectations of a potential bullish attempt to retest the $4K resistance following this consolidation phase.
The 4-Hour Chart
On the 4-hour chart, Ethereum’s rejection at the $4K resistance triggered a sharp decline, breaking below the ascending wedge pattern—a clear indication of sellers’ dominance. This bearish momentum pushed the price lower, leading to a pullback before resuming its downtrend.
At present, Ethereum is trading within a significant support zone, defined by the 0.5 ($3.2K)–0.618 ($3K) Fibonacci retracement levels.
This is expected to provide stability in the short to mid-term, with the likelihood of continued consolidation and minor retracements. If this support holds, buyers may re-enter the market, setting the stage for another attempt to challenge the $4K resistance.
By Shayan
Ethereum’s failure to reclaim the $4K threshold triggered significant liquidations in the futures market, followed by a flash crash that appears to have substantially cooled the broader sentiment.
The chart illustrates the funding rates metric, a reliable indicator of futures market sentiment. While Ethereum’s aggregate funding rates saw a sharp spike last week, the rejection at $4K led to substantial liquidations, bringing funding rates back to levels conducive to a bullish trend.
This cooling effect could pave the way for a more sustainable rally in the coming weeks. A similar pattern was observed in January 2024 when a sharp decline in funding rates calmed the futures market, setting the stage for Ethereum’s next major impulsive rally. This historical precedent suggests that the current market reset could mark the beginning of another bullish phase.
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