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Bitcoin halving to raise ‘efficient’ BTC mining costs to $30K

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Bitcoin (BTC) Ordinals are boosting miner profits, but “income stress” is looming, new research warns.

In the latest edition of its weekly newsletter, “The Week On-Chain,” analytics firm Glassnode predicted fresh problems for miners after Bitcoin’s next block subsidy halving.

Bitcoin halving impact on miners could be “severe”

Bitcoin miner competition is exploding, with hash rate — the estimated combined processing power deployed to the blockchain — at record highs.

For Glassnode, this indicates unprecedented conditions for miners trying to eke out a living at current BTC price levels.

Ordinal inscriptions are helping, with these acting as “packing-filler” which turns empty blockspace into a source of revenue for miners.

“Naturally, as blockspace demand increases, miner revenues will be positively affected,” it wrote.

Bitcoin Mean Hash Rate (7-day moving average) chart (screenshot). Source: Glassnode

The proportion of income received from fees has increased between 1% and 4% compared to lows seen during Bitcoin bear markets, but by historical standards remains modest.

“Meanwhile, the amount of hashrate competing for these rewards has increased by 50% since February, as more miners, and newer ASIC rigs are established and come online,” “The Week On-Chain” notes.

This hash rate spike is laying the foundation for an upcoming showdown. In April 2024, miner rewards per block will drop 50%, doubling the so-called “production cost” per BTC. Currently around $15,000, this will pass $30,000 — above the current spot price.

Glassnode presented two models for estimating the price at which miners, on aggregate, fall into the red, with the above comparing issuance to mining difficulty.

“By this model, we estimate that the most efficient miners on the network have an acquisition price of around $15.1k,” researchers explained.

“However, the purple curve shows the post-halving ‘doubling’ of this level to $30.2k, which would likely put the majority of the mining market into severe income stress.”

Bitcoin Difficulty per Issuance Pricing Model (screenshot). Source: Glassnode

A previous model put the average miner acquisition price at $24,300 per Bitcoin — around 8% below spot as of Sept. 28.

Bitcoin Difficulty Regression model (screenshot). Source: Glassnode

BTC price incentives

Others are more optimistic about how miners will handle the build-up to the halving.

Related: Bitcoin exchange volume tracks 5-year lows as Fed inspires BTC hodling

In an interview with Cointelegraph this month, analyst Filbfilb, co-founder of trading suite DecenTrader, reiterated that miners would up BTC accumulation in advance of the event.

“Miners are incentivized to ensure that prices are well above marginal cost prior to the halving,” he wrote in an X (formerly Twitter) thread in August.

“Whether they collude consciously, or not they are collectively incentivized to send prices higher before their marginal revenue is effectively halved.”

BTC/USD chart with miner accumulation data. Source: Filbfilb/X

Assisting BTC supply dynamics will be what Filbfilb calls smart money “buying the rumor” over the halving and its own impact on the amount of BTC being minted.

Collect this article as an NFT to preserve this moment in history and show your support for independent journalism in the crypto space.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Cryptocurrency

All TRX Holders Turn Profitable as Tron Hits Major 2025 Milestone

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While the crypto market recovered last week, the Tron ecosystem quietly recorded a significant milestone for the year.

As reported by Burakkesmeci, an analyst for the market intelligence platform CryptoQuant, all cohorts of investors holding TRX, the native asset of the Tron network, have seen their positions turn green.

TRX Holders Enter Profit Zone

Burakkesmeci disclosed that TRX investor sentiment turned bullish as the coin recorded 115% gains in a year. The journey to this milestone kicked off on May 5 when TRX rallied to $0.25, bringing all investor cohorts, from long- to short-term participants, into the green territory.

Investors who held TRX for one week, one month, three months (short-term), six months, and one year (medium/long-term) all became profitable. According to the analyst, this development is significant for market sentiment and network dynamics because it shows the level of user confidence in Tron’s future potential.

As of May 15, TRX investors holding the asset for one week were in 10% profit, while those holding for a month were 6% in the green. Three-month-old holders were in 11% profit, while six-month and one-year-old investors had recorded gains of 52% and 115%, respectively. Burakkesmeci insisted that short-term holders being in profit drives strong positive sentiment in the market.

“These investors are more likely to share their success stories, which can encourage new participants to invest in Tron, potentially creating a feedback loop of increasing demand and momentum,” he stated.

At the time of writing on May 16, TRX was worth $0.272 following a significant, but volatile price move over the last seven days.

Tron Attains Higher Reliability and Security

Besides Tron’s latest win in profitability, the network has become more reliable and secure, with block production consistently averaging 99.7% of the expected 28,800 blocks daily. Tron has come a long way from 2020 to 2021, when it witnessed more network volatility and disruptions in block output.

A recent report by CryptoQuant said Tron is now recording a steady upward trend in production efficiency.

“The absence of large swings in block production indicates a maturing network with robust governance and operational performance, reinforcing TRON’s credibility as a high-throughput blockchain platform,” CryptoQuant added.

Meanwhile, Tether (USDT) supply on Tron recently surpassed Ethereum for the first time in crypto history.

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These Altcoins Plunge Hard but Bitcoin (BTC) Maintains $103K (Market Watch)

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Bitcoin’s price slipped below $103,000 earlier today, but the bulls managed to defend that level, and the asset is back well above it now.

However, several altcoins have marked massive losses over the past day, led by another double-digit price plunge from PI.

BTC Stays Calm

Bitcoin started the business week on the right foot as its price shot up from under $104,000 to a multi-month peak of just shy of $106,000. This came as a direct consequence of the trade deal struck by the US and China.

However, the asset couldn’t maintain its run and dropped by roughly five grand in the following hours to a weekly low of under $101,000. Nevertheless, the bulls didn’t allow a breakdown beneath $100,000, and the cryptocurrency began its recovery that pushed it to $105,000 by Thursday.

Another rejection followed, and more volatility ensued on Friday, but overall, bitcoin has been able to remain in a relatively tight range between $102,500 and $104,000. The past 24 hours brought some more minor fluctuations around these levels, and BTC now stands close to the upper boundary.

Its market cap has remained above $2.050 trillion on CG while its dominance over the alts has risen by over 0.5% daily to 60.4%.

BTCUSD. Source: TradingView
BTCUSD. Source: TradingView

PI Keeps Dumping

Most larger-cap alts have turned red in the past 24 hours. ETH has slipped below $2,500 after a 3% daily decline. A similar nosedive is evident from DOGE, while SHIB and LINK have dropped by over 4%.

However, PI leads the pack in terms of the biggest daily losses. Pi Network’s native token has plummeted by 20% and sits below $0.7.

Other larger-cap alts in the red today include PEPE, UNI, ONDO, AAVE, NEAR, APT, and more.

The total crypto market cap has seen over $70 billion disappear in a day and is down to $3.4 trillion on CG.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

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Cryptocurrency

FTX Creditors to Receive Over $5B Starting May 30

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The FTX Recovery Trust has announced it will begin disbursing more than $5 billion to creditors from May 30.

This payment round marks the second distribution to eligible parties as the firm continues its efforts to reimburse those affected by its collapse.

Repayment Efforts

In a May 15 release, the company’s bankruptcy estate categorized creditors into five “convenience classes” with specified payout rates. Members of creditors Class 5A will receive a 72% distribution, while Class 5B will be paid 54%.

Classes 6A and 6B, comprised of small lenders and Alameda Research trading partners, are each set for 61% distributions. Finally, Class 7 Convenience Claims will receive 120%.

John J. Ray III described the upcoming payments as a major development, stating:

“These first non-convenience class distributions are an important milestone for FTX. The scope and magnitude of the FTX creditor base makes this an unprecedented distribution process.”

He added that the announcement demonstrated the strong results of the team’s recovery and coordination efforts and emphasized that their focus remained on maximizing returns for creditors and addressing unresolved claims.

Eligible creditors are expected to receive their funds through their selected distribution service provider, either Bitgo or Kraken, within one to three business days after May 30. However, customers who onboard with a Distribution Service Provider will forfeit the right to receive cash directly from the bankrupt exchange, with all funds sent through their chosen provider instead.

The FTX Recovery Trust also said that the repayment schedule for upcoming creditor classes will be announced in due course. If all claims are filed, total repayments could reach up to $16.5 billion.

Separately, the FTX bankruptcy estate initiated legal proceedings in April against NFT Stars Limited and Delysium. The lawsuits aim to recover digital assets allegedly withheld from the estate and are part of the company’s efforts to reclaim funds and maximize recoveries following its November 2022 collapse.

Criticism Over Valuation Method

FTX currently has about $11.4 billion allocated for creditor repayments. The first round of reimbursements began on February 18, 2025, directed at creditors with “convenience claims” under $50,000. Approximately $1.2 billion was paid out in that phase.

The second distribution phase will now target those with requests exceeding that amount. These include major investors and institutions that held millions in crypto on the platform.

Despite progress, the repayment model has faced criticism for calculating reimbursements based on crypto values at the time of the bankruptcy filing. This has led to some creditors receiving less than the current market value of their holdings.

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