Cryptocurrency
FTX’s $3.4B crypto liquidation: What it means for crypto markets
The FTX bankruptcy lawsuit reached a key juncture in the second week of September after the United States Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware approved the sale of $3.4 billion worth of crypto assets.
The court also approved $1.3 billion in brokerage and government-recovered assets as part of the liquidation process, with $2.6 billion in cash bringing the total tally to $7.1 billion in liquid assets.
Among the different cryptocurrencies set for liquidation, Solana (SOL) tops the pile with a value of $1.16 billion, and Bitcoin (BTC) is the second-largest asset held, valued at $560 million.
Other assets to be liquidated include $192 million in Ether (ETH), $137 million in Aptos (APT), $120 million in Tether (USDT), $119 million in XRP (XRP), $49 million in Biconomy Exchange Token (BIT), $46 million in Stargate Finance (STG), $41 million in Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) and $37 million in Wrapped Ethereum (WETH).
Bitcoin, Ether and insider-affiliated tokens can only be sold after giving a 10 days advance notice to U.S. trustees appointed by the Department of Justice. The court also permitted hedging options for these assets.
The allowance for hedging is significant because FTX can use various financial instruments, such as futures, options and perpetual swaps to offset the losses.
The ruling drew industry-wide attention due to the significant amount of crypto assets approved for sale, with many questioning the potential impact on the crypto market.
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Joshua Garcia, partner at Web3-focused legal firm Ketsal, told Cointelegraph that determining whether the liquidation was the right decision is challenging. He said that bankruptcy courts have to focus on what is good for creditors, and creditors may care more about the recovery of funds rather than a potential slump in the price of the assets being liquidated.
“Whether or not this decision impacts the token price is perhaps not the court’s primary concern. The potential or imagined market impact may mean nothing to a judge or creditors committee if it doesn’t make creditors whole, at least in the eyes of the court. The concern here is millions of users suffered substantial losses due to FTX’s actions. Making victims as whole as possible is the top priority.”
The discovery of billions of dollars of liquid assets also relieved many creditors in the case.
Blake Harris, an asset protection attorney, believes unearthing liquid assets can be a game-changer in the FTX bankruptcy case. He told Cointelegraph that the newfound liquid assets “could offer more flexibility in asset management, allowing for a strategic approach that balances immediate legal requirements with broader market implications,” adding that “the discovery of such assets could provide some relief in terms of meeting immediate financial obligations, but it’s also essential to consider how these assets will be managed moving forward to prevent similar situations in the future.”
Market analysts predicted that Solana and Aptos prices have the highest chance of facing price volatility after liquidation based on each token’s daily trading volume.
How much of an impact will FTX’s liquidation have on the market?#SOL (81%) and #APT (74%) will have the most impact when you look at the daily trading volume of each token#BTC, #XRP, and #BNB liquidations will have very little impact on the market as each are 1% or less of… pic.twitter.com/XXIoZbKfBm
— Velvet.Capital (@Velvet_Capital) September 17, 2023
FTX liquidation won’t risk a crypto market cascade
The bankruptcy court has taken measures to ensure that the liquidation of FTX assets won’t become a burden for the crypto market.
The court order permits FTX to sell digital assets through an investment adviser in weekly batches in accordance with pre-established rules. Galaxy Digital has been entrusted with liquidating the assets and maximizing returns for FTX’s creditors while ensuring market stability.
The court also permitted FTX “to utilize staking options available through their qualified custodians using their respective private validators if the Debtors determine in the reasonable exercise of their business judgment that such activities are in the best interests of their estates.”
In the first week, there will be a $50 million cap on the sale of assets, followed by a $100 million cap in the succeeding weeks. The cap can be increased up to $200 million per week with the previous written consent of the creditors’ committee and ad hoc committee after court approval.
Anthony Panebianco, a commercial business litigator, told Cointelegraph that legally, a court may permit a debtor to liquidate its assets “outside the normal scope of business” in order to maximize the value from the sale to repay creditors, adding:
“The interesting part is that the court took an additional step to look at the general marketplace for the assets it is granting liquidation of. That is, the court is looking at protecting both creditors and non-creditors of FTX by the manner in which it has ordered the liquidation process.”
He also highlighted the different liquidation strategies for BTC and ETH. He said the “court-approved hedging arrangements for Bitcoin and Ether are subject to certain investment guidelines,” adding that “the court did not include Solana in these eligible assets for hedging arrangements, likely because of FTX’s large position in Solana. All three appear to be eligible for staking arrangements, again with oversight.”
Among all crypto assets held by FTX slated for liquidation, Solana became a major point of discussion owing to the $1.1 billion of the asset on the bankrupt crypto exchange’s balance sheet. According to market analysts, people considering a short position should be wary of the unlock period of the tokens held by FTX, with a complete unlock in 2028.
Looking at FTX’s SOL staking unlock schedule, a significant chunk of these tokens will slowly make their way to the market via linear vesting or scheduled unlocks until 2028, with the largest unlock scheduled for March 2025. Most of the SOL is locked in staking contracts.
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The linear vesting program offers a simple mechanism to gradually release a token balance over certain periods.
Currently, only 24% of the total $1.16 billion SOL tokens have been unlocked. Apart from Solana, Aptos tokens are also 100% locked and will be unlocked in phases over the next few years.
In its own analysis, Coinbase crypto exchange said that the scheduled and phased liquidation will keep the market stable, noting the strict controls in place for selling certain “insider-affiliated” tokens and a major part of FTX’s SOL holdings locked up until around 2025 due to the token’s vesting schedule.
While many experts state that markets are more or less safe amid the FTX liquidation, the exchange’s saga is far from over, with former CEO Sam Bankman-Fried’s legal team sparring with prosecutors for special conditions ahead of the trial.
Moreover, the exchange’s alleged illegal behavior has dealt a significant blow to public trust in the crypto ecosystem.
The little orange cryptocurrency was one of several digital assets in this segment that walloped 2024 gains from investing in US stocks like those in the S&P 500 Index or Nasdaq Composite.
Others, like Ripple’s XRP tokens for international settlements between large institutions, performed even better than Bitcoin. XRP was up 247% by Christmas Day in December. It notched 271% for the entire year on Wednesday.
But here’s how some leading crypto market analysts expect Bitcoin’s price to carry through some point over the 2025 calendar year.
For a basis of reference, Bitcoin traded at an average crypto exchange rate of $94,700 Wednesday evening US Eastern Time, according to data from CoinGecko.
Bitcoin Price Predictions: $80,000 – $160,000
Peter Brandt: $78,000
Brandt made a prediction on Sunday, Dec. 29, targeting a big drop in Bitcoin’s price to the $78,000 level, based on a 45-day head and shoulders top pattern.
This is a head and shoulders top pattern. It might complete and take price to $78,000; it might fail with a thrust hire: or, it might morph into something else. But as it stands right now, it is a head and shoulders top and must be chartist dealt with for what it is. pic.twitter.com/b9AUUO7ddL
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) December 29, 2024
If he’s right, BTC will have to take one step back before it advances toward the more bullish price targets for 2025. But Brandt also cautioned in the comment thread on his post, “Charts do NOT predict anything. Charts merely suggest possibilities.”
The famous stock chart technical analyst is bullish for XRP in 2025, but his outlook for Bitcoin’s price is bearish.
CoinShares: $80,000
European crypto hedge fund CoinShares’ head of research, James Butterfill, recently told CNBC that $150,000 BTC is possible in 2025. But he said a bearish correction to $80,000 is also on the cards.
“Disappointment surrounding Trump’s proposed crypto policies and doubts about their enactment could prompt a significant market correction,” Butterfill warned.
Bullish 2025 BTC Targets: $160,000 – $250,000
Standard Chartered: $200,000
British multinational bank Standard Chartered’s research head Geoff Kendrick says his office is targeting $200,000 BTC in 2025. He added that the entry of the United States government into the Bitcoin race is likely to fuel that rally.
“Even a small allocation of the USD 40tn in US retirement funds would significantly boost BTC prices,” Kendrick noted.
“We would turn even more bullish if BTC saw more rapid uptake by US retirement funds, global sovereign wealth funds (SWFs), or a potential US strategic reserve fund.”
Nexo: $250,000
Swiss-based crypto fund manager Nexo’s chief product officer, Elitsa Taskova, told CNBC, “We see Bitcoin more than doubling to $250,000 within a year.”
She points to ongoing trends in adoption by institutional finance and social indicators for the bullish outlook in 2025.
“These projections align with ongoing trends and social markers: increasing recognition of Bitcoin as a reserve asset, more Bitcoin and crypto-related exchange-traded products (ETPs), and stronger adoption,” Taskova said.
Bottom Line for Investors
Like stocks, cryptocurrency assets are held at risk. But for more than a decade, Bitcoin has delivered world-class returns during bull markets. That means it’s possible for a small allocation to BTC can substantially speed individual investment portfolios toward reaching personal finance goals.
Nevertheless, investors should do their own research before allocating funds into any asset, no matter its returns over the past year or two.
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TL:DR;
- XRP rebounded from its most recent price slip below $2, but the asset might not be out of the woods yet.
- However, a popular crypto analyst suggested that a potential decline toward that level again could be beneficial for XRP’s long-term price movements.
Ripple’s cross-border token went on a massive run after the US elections, skyrocketing by triple digits at one point and peaking close to $3. All of these gains came in the span of a few weeks, but the asset lost momentum at the start of December.
It tumbled hard on several occasions in the following weeks, with the latest decline to under $2 transpiring last Monday – December 30. This came during the most recent market-wide correction.
However, the popular crypto asset reacted well to this decline and shot up by over 20% since then, currently sitting at around $2.45. Consequently, XRP has regained its spot as the third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap by surpassing Tether’s USDT.
According to analyst Ali Martinez, XRP still stands below a steep resistance level of $2.73, which has stopped its price ascent on a couple of occasions during this rally. If the asset fails to overcome it soon, it could slump back to $2.05.
However, Martinez actually believes that such a scenario could be a blessing in disguise for XRP, which could catapult it toward a fresh all-time high above $3.4 (CoinGecko data) and all the way up to $11.
$XRP is still consolidating within the pennant of a massive bull pennant pattern. Until the $2.73 resistance is broken, a pullback to $2.05 remains possible before a potential breakout to $11! pic.twitter.com/ET39FJMtAc
— Ali (@ali_charts) January 4, 2025
It’s safe to say that $11 sounds quite extraordinary for XRP. Such a price tag would put the asset’s market cap at well over $600 billion, which would help it top Ethereum in that regard. Although this might sound plausible under a friendlier Trump administration, it’s still a long way away and falls under the category of exaggerated price predictions.
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The landscape around bitcoin after the last FOMC meeting for 2024 in the US turned upside down, with local investors pulling funds out of the ETFs and the Coinbase Premium Index declining to yearly lows.
However, on-chain data shows that US investors are back on the BTC front, with massive accumulations.
ETFs Demand Returns
During the aforementioned meeting at the highest levels in the US central bank, Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that there might be fewer or even no rate cuts in 2025 due to rising inflation. US investors reacted immediately and started pulling funds out of riskier assets like BTC and crypto.
Within the next four trading days, they withdrew more than $1.5 billion out of the US-based Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. December 26 was the only day well in the green, as December 27, 30, and January 2 saw more net outflows. Even BlackRock’s IBIT, the world’s largest Bitcoin ETF, was posting negative records.
However, this changed on Friday, January 3. The total net inflows for the day shot up to $908.1 million, according to FarSide data. IBIT was actually second with $253.1 million, trailing behind Fidelity’s FBTC with $357 million. Ark Invest’s ARKB also had a strong presence, attracting $222.6 million. This became the best day in terms of net inflows since November 21.
Coinbase Premium Index
The other metric that showcases US investors’ overall behavior toward bitcoin and crypto is the Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the BTC price difference between Coinbase and Binance. When it shoots up into positive territory, this means that US-based investors are accumulating heavily, and vice versa.
The metric recently plunged to a yearly low, as reported, which coincided with the growing ETF outflows after the FOMC meeting. Now, though, CryptoQuant data shows that it has returned to neutral territory almost immediately after posting that low. This shows that “sentiment by the US and institutional investors is back.”
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