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War, CPI and $28K BTC price — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

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Bitcoin (BTC) starts the second week of October up 4% month-to-date as geopolitical instability provides a snap market focus.

BTC price action continues to hold steady at $28,000, but what will happen next as markets react to the war in Israel?

In what could end up a volatile period for risk assets, Bitcoin has yet to offer a significant reaction, spending the weekend in a tight corridor.

That could soon change, however, as the Wall Street open comes amid a hike in oil and gold, along with U.S. dollar strength.

Macroeconomic triggers are also far from lacking, with the coming days due to see the September print of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI). In the wake of surprise employment data last week, the readout holds additional importance for the Federal Reserve.

Beneath the hood, meanwhile, on-chain metrics are pointing to interesting times for Bitcoin, as BTC/USD trades in a key range, which has formed a watershed area since 2021.

Cointelegraph looks at these factors and more in the weekly rundown of potential BTC price triggers to come.

Bitcoin “illiquid and choppy” as weekly close passes

The weekend saw market participants fully focused on the abrupt breakout of war in Israel, and as markets themselves reopen, change is already afoot.

For Bitcoin, however, the ongoing events have yet to deliver a palpable chain reaction, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

BTC price action has centered on $28,000 since Friday, and that level remains key as traders hope for a resistance/support flip.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

“Nothing special going on this weekend,” Daan Crypto Trades summarized on X (formerly Twitter) into the weekly close.

“Would expect volumes to pick up a bit soon but ultimately we should be hovering around this price region until futures open back up tonight.”

A further post noted that Bitcoin had yet to decisively break through the 200-week moving average (MA), which sits at $28,176 at the time of writing.

Analyzing the 4-hour chart, popular trader Skew described BTC price behavior as “illiquid and choppy.”

“Bitcoin’s bullish flag is still in play — but it is taking too long to play out,” fellow trader Jelle continued, zooming out to monthly performance.

“October is generally the most bullish month of the year, thus I’m still expecting this one to break out upwards.”

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Jelle/X

War returns to crypto observers’ radar

When it comes to price triggers, however, the unfolding conflict in Israel has Bitcoin and crypto market participants anticipating the bulk of volatility is still to come.

With the memory of Bitcoin’s reaction to the war in Ukraine in February 2022 still in the background, Jelle was cautious over what might happen to BTC/USD next.

“All I do know is that the Ukraine war triggered an 8% down candle, that was erased within a day,” part of the day’s X commentary explained.

Mike McGlone, senior macro strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, meanwhile described Bitcoin as now showing a “risk-off tilt” among traders.

“My bias is the downward sloping 100-week moving average is likely to win the battle vs. the up trending 50-week. Spiking #crudeoil is a liquidity pressure factor,” he wrote on Oct. 8.

BTC/USD vs. Fed funds futures with 50, 100-week MA chart. Source: Mike McGlone/X

At the time, the 100-week and 50-week MAs were at $28,938 and $24,890, respectively.

McGlone touched on an unfolding macro asset phenomenon, with gold up 1% on the day and Brent crude up 3.25% ahead of the Wall Street open.

“Markets reacting quite defensively,” Skew added, noting renewed strength in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which gained 0.4%.

Last week, the DXY hit its highest levels since late 2022.

DXY 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

CPI leads “huge week for inflation”

In the U.S., attention focuses on the week’s macroeconomic data prints, headlined by the September CPI report.

After jobs data last week showed that employment levels remained resilient despite anti-inflation moves from the Fed, Bitcoin briefly recoiled over fears that officials would enact another interest rate hike, further pressuring liquidity.

While BTC/USD rebounded, those fears remain.

“A good CPI data on Thursday could provide a chance to break out from this range, whereas a hot CPI would push us back into the range lows with the premise that the FED might be forced to hike 25bsp,” part of weekend analysis from popular commentator CrypNuevo read.

Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group

According to data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, markets are increasingly betting on rates staying at current levels on decision day, set for Nov. 1.

Beyond CPI, this week will see the Producer Price Index (PPI) release, along with more jobless claims and a total of 12 Fed speakers delivering commentary. The minutes of the Fed meeting around the previous rates decision will also be unveiled on Oct. 11.

“Huge week for inflation and the Fed,” financial commentary resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized in part of an X thread.

“In addition, markets will react to geopolitical tensions from this weekend. Volatility is the new normal.”

NVT signal spikes to highest since 2018

Within Bitcoin, the network value to transaction (NVT) signal leads the pack on on-chain metric volatility to start the week.

NVT, which its creator, Dmity Kalichkin, describes as a “PE ratio” for Bitcoin, seeks to estimate local BTC price tops and bottoms by comparing market cap to daily on-chain transaction values.

The latest data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows NVT hitting its highest levels in five years — over 1,750 and far beyond its position at the start of 2023.

Bitcoin NVT signal chart. Source: Glassnode/X

NVT has undergone various overhauls in recent years, as the dynamics of the BTC supply call for different guidance figures for determining price tops.

“If the trend towards side-chains and private transactions continues, we can expect less-and-less transactions to be captured in the public on-chain data (reducing the relative value of the “T” in NVT),” Charles Edwards, founder of quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole Investments, wrote in part of his own research in 2019.

“This could cause the fair value NVT range to increase with time.”

Analyzing the NVT spike, crypto market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock suggested that it was representative of a broader metamorphosis.

“The lens through which we view Bitcoin’s value is changing,” it wrote at the weekend.

“Transaction value & volume were once the go-to metrics. However, recent spikes in NVT ratios hint that Bitcoin’s value is now moving independently of transactional utility, hinting at its growing role as a store of value.”

Neither fearful, nor greedy

Providing a fleeting insight into crypto market sentiment, the classic Crypto Fear & Greed Index reflects an overall air of indecision.

Related: Bitcoin bull market awaits as US faces ‘bear steepener’ — Arthur Hayes

The average investor is ambivalent when it comes to the market, as shown by the Index sticking rigidly to its “neutral” territory.

As of Oct. 9, Fear & Greed is at 50/100 — exactly half way along its scale between two sentiment extremes.

Zooming out, recent months have marked some of its least volatile conditions on record.

“You know the drill, i will be mass buying when we drop down to Extreme Fear and a $20,000 Bitcoin,” popular trader Crypto Tony reacted to the latest data.

“May take a while, but i feel Q1 / Q2 2024 will be the ticket. If i see a change in behaviour i will re-evaluate.”

Crypto Tony referenced an inkling that BTC/USD will return to $20,000 for a final retest before expanding higher after the 2024 block subsidy halving.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Cryptocurrency

BTC Records Best Week Since March Amid US CPI Announcement and Big Names Buying Bitcoin ETFs: This Week’s Crypto Recap

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A lot can change in the cryptocurrency market within the span of a week and it indeed did in the past seven days. It was just last Friday when bitcoin was struggling to remain above $60,000 after another leg down, but the landscape is quite different now.

The changes started to happen during the weekend when BTC remained above the aforementioned level and even increased slightly to around $61,000. However, the first big move came on Monday when the cryptocurrency pumped to just over $63,000.

It failed to sustain that rally and retraced hard on Tuesday amid some Coinbase issues and perhaps due to pressure from the upcoming US CPI announcement on Wednesday. Once that came out, though, and the reality met expectations, bitcoin started climbing rapidly.

It jumped by several grand and shot above $66,500 as the inflows to the ETFs accelerated as well. The asset retraced slightly yesterday to just under $65,000 but went back on the offensive today. As a result, BTC returned to over $66,000, marking its best week since the early days of March and making investors greedy again.

Speaking of a weekly scale, some of the most impressive gainers from the larger-cap alts include Solana, which skyrocketed earlier this week, and Chainlink, which tapped a multi-month peak of over $16.

Market Data

Market Cap: $2.533T | 24H Vol: $78B | BTC Dominance: 51.6%

BTC: $66,455 (+5.35%) | ETH: $3,086 (+2.1%) | BNB: $580 (-2.61%)

This Week’s Crypto Headlines You Can’t Miss

Bitcoin’s Fundamentals Remain Strong Amid Market Volatility: Bitfinex, Despite bitcoin’s retracement from the end of last week, Bitfinex highlighted in a report from Monday that all the network’s fundamentals have remained strong, even though the difficulty had declined slightly.

The Floppening: Ethereum Can’t Stop Losing Ground To Bitcoin. The graph above shows that ETH has failed to produce gains similar to those of BTC. In fact, the second-largest cryptocurrency has declined in value a lot compared to bitcoin in the past several months, making the so-called ‘flippening’ more of a distant dream than a potential reality.

Morgan Stanley Reveals $269 Million Investment in Grayscale’s GBTC. Publicly listed US giants had to disclose their financial activities during the first quarter of the year in separate filings to the US SEC. As such, several big names, such as Morgan Stanley, outlined multi-million dollar investments in different Bitcoin ETFs.

Wisconsin State BTC Investment Could Cause Chain Reaction From Other States. One of the other notable and perhaps surprising names on the BTC bandwagon list was the State of Wisconsin Investment Board (SWIB). Its $164 million investment in Bitcoin ETFs raises the question of whether other similar entities will follow suit.

CME Group Plans Spot Bitcoin Trading Amid Rising Wall Street Demand. CME Group, a traditional finance giant that has a rich history with the cryptocurrency industry, is reportedly looking into entering the spot Bitcoin trading market, something that the firm has avoided in the past. This could create lots of competition for established names like Coinbase and Binance.

ShibaSwap 2.0 Goes Live On Shiba Inu’s Layer 2 Blockchain. Shiba Inu’s ecosystem has been among the most active in the past year or so, and this week marked the migration of the native decentralized exchange to Shibarium in the form of ShibaSwap 2.0.

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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

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Senator Lummis Posts Bitcoin Laser Eyes After Passed Crypto Legislation

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U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis recently posted “Bitcoin laser eyes” on X, showing her support for laws supporting the cryptocurrency.

The move follows the passing of legislation H.J.Res. 109 in the Senate, which aims to overturn the SEC’s Staff Accounting Bulletin (SAB) No. 121.

Senator Lummis Advocates for Bitcoin Legislation

U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis, representing Wyoming, is well-known for her advocacy of Bitcoin. She views the asset as a dependable store of value and a safeguard against inflation. Serving on the Senate Banking Committee, she aims to enforce a regulatory framework that fosters crypto innovation while safeguarding consumers.

The Senate recently passed legislation targeting the dismantling of SAB 121, which imposes stringent restrictions on financial institutions, preventing them from acting as custodians for digital assets like Bitcoin. Under the Congressional Review Act, H.J.Res. 109 aims to eliminate these barriers, allowing regulated financial firms to provide custody services for cryptocurrencies.

Prior to the legislation’s passage, Senator Lummis vocalized her support for overturning SAB 121. She denounced it as a rule disguised as accounting guidance crafted and implemented by SEC staff without majority commission approval.

Recently, Senator Lummis, along with Senator Ron Wyden of Oregon, penned a letter to U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland expressing concerns over the perceived divergence in the Department of Justice’s interpretation of “money transmission” regulations. They argued that this deviation from FinCEN’s established definition could criminalize fundamental aspects of crypto networks, affecting responsible financial innovation in the U.S.

White House Cites Investor Protection Concerns

Meanwhile, the White House has clearly stated its opposition to the passed legislation. A recent statement indicated that President Biden would veto the bill if it reached his desk. He might argue that overturning SAB 121 would undermine the SEC’s efforts to protect investors in the crypto-asset markets and safeguard the broader financial system.

Critics of SAB 121 believe that the rule is excessively restrictive and limits financial institutions’ ability to meet the growing demand for Bitcoin services. They argue that these institutions, with their established compliance frameworks and security protocols, are well-equipped to manage the risks associated with digital asset custody.

Despite the Senate’s approval, the future of H.J.Res. 109 remains uncertain due to the potential presidential veto. If President Biden follows through on his veto promise, it would stop the resolution’s progress, maintaining the current restrictions on financial institutions’ custody of digital assets. Biden has the option to sign the bill into law, veto it, or take no action, in which case the bill would become law without his signature.

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LINK Explodes 18% Daily, BTC Maintains $66K as Bitcoin ETF Inflows Continue (Market Watch)

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Bitcoin’s price tapped a multi-week high yesterday at around $66,600 before it was pushed down by about a grand but has reclaimed the $66,000 level as of now.

Several altcoins have continued their recent rally, with LINK taking the main stage following a massive 18% surge.

BTC Back to $66K

The primary cryptocurrency had a tough end of the previous business week when it was brought down to just inches above $60,000. Instead of going below that coveted round-numbered milestone, though, the asset bounced off during the weekend and especially on Monday.

The bulls initiated an impressive leg-up at the start of the current week that drove bitcoin to just over $63,000. It failed there at first, dropping to $61,200 amid some Coinbase issues, but went back on the offensive on Wednesday after the US announced the CPI numbers for April.

As the spot Bitcoin ETF inflows kept increasing on Wednesday and Thursday, BTC’s price soared to a three-week high of just over $66,500. The asset retraced slightly yesterday evening but has jumped back above $66,000 as of now amid the fourth consecutive day of positive flows into those ETFs.

Its market cap remains slightly above $1.3 trillion, but its dominance over the alts has taken a hit and is down to 51.7%.

Bitcoin/Price/Chart 17.05.2024. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin/Price/Chart 17.05.2024. Source: TradingView

LINK Skyrockets

Most alternative coins turned green yesterday in a similar fashion to bitcoin. While some, such as BNB, DOGE, TON, TRX, and SHIB, are slightly in the red now, most others have kept climbing.

Ethereum and Ripple are up by 0.5-1%, which has helped the former maintain $3,000 and the latter $0.5. More gains come from the likes of SOL, ADA, AVAX, DOT, BCH, HBAR, and ICP.

However, Chainlink has stolen the show from the larger-cap alts. LINK has skyrocketed by more than 18% in the past day and now trades above $16.

The total crypto market cap has remained relatively still on a daily scale at just over $2.5 trillion on CG.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

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