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Commodities

Oil down 3rd day as industry data suggests epic US crude build 

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Oil down 3rd day as industry data suggests epic US crude build 
© Reuters.

Investing.com – Crude prices fell for a third day in a row as trading began in Asia Thursday, responding to a report by industry group API that the largest weekly crude stockpile build in eight months may have taken place in the United States last week.

After Monday’s 4% price rally on the back of the worst outbreak in decades of fighting between Israeli and Palestine troops that raised concerns about oil exports from the Middle East, crude markets have taken on an unnatural, eerie calm in the past two days as it became clear the market may have overreacted to the crisis.

As such, crude prices gave back more than 3% of those gains in the last 48 hours, particularly after a Reuters report that Saudi Arabia’s state oil firm had informed at least four refiners in North Asia that it would supply them with the full contractual volumes nominated for November. 

The pledge by Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:) ran against the very grain of what Riyadh had been publicly telling global oil markets — that its priority was about keeping the market tight, not assuring that supplies were generously available whenever needed.

On Wednesday, the optics for the oil market worsened further after API, or the American Petroleum Institute, reported that US possibly rose by nearly 13 million barrels last week in what could be the highest build since February.

By Thursday afternoon in Singapore, New York-traded West Texas Intermediate, or , crude for delivery in November was down 31 cents, or 0.4%, at $83.18 per barrel by 12:40 in Singapore (00:40 Eastern US Time). From Monday’s high of $87.24, the benchmark US crude benchmark had fallen to a low of $82.78 in the last session.

“Going into the new trading day, moving below $82.35 would increase the bearish bias with the next support (being) at the low (of) last week, at $81.56,” markets’ analyst Greg Michalowski said in a posting on the ForexLive forum. 

A super bullish narrative to a suspect one in 3 days

London-traded crude for the most-active December contract was down 22 cents, or 0.3%, at $85.60 in the latest session. On Monday Brent reached a high of $89.00 but Thursday it struck a low of $85.19. 

“The oil market narrative had gone from a super bullish to suspect in just three days,” said John Kilduff, partner at New York energy hedge fund Again Capital.

Aside from last week’s humongous crude build, the API said — the No. 1 US fuel product — rose by 3.645M, adding to the previous week’s gain of 3.946M, the API said.

The only real bullish element in the API report was the drop of 3.535M barrels for distillates — a feedstock for diesel and heating fuel — versus the prior week’s build of 0.349M.

The API also noted a 0.547M barrel drop in storage levels at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery point for US crude, versus the previous week’s rise of 0.705M. That prior week’s build was the first in months for Cushing. Until that week, there had been fears that Cushng stockpiles may drop to such critically low levels that would complicate any more withdrawals from the storage hub.

The API numbers serve as a precursor to official inventory data on the same due from the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Thursday.

For last week, analysts tracked by Investing.com expect the EIA to report a drop of 0.37 million barrels, versus the 2.224-million barrel reduction reported during the week to Sept. 29.

On the front, the consensus is for a draw of 1.5M barrels over the 6.481M-barrel jump in the previous week. Automotive fuel gasoline is the No. 1 U.S. fuel product.

With , the expectation is for a drop of 1.5M barrels versus the prior week’s drop of 1.269M. Distillates are refined into , diesel for trucks, buses, trains and ships and fuel for jets.

 

Commodities

Gold prices edge higher, record highs in sight amid rate cut bets

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Investing.com– Gold prices rose slightly in Asian trade on Wednesday, keeping recent record highs in sight as traders waited to see just by how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. 

Bullion prices briefly hit record highs this week amid growing expectations for a 50 basis point cut, which dented the dollar and Treasury yields. But some stronger-than-expected U.S. data complicated expectations of a large rate cut.

rose 0.2% to $2,574.15 an ounce, while rose 0.3% to $2,600.40 an ounce by 00:16 ET (04:16 GMT). 

Gold just below record highs with rate cuts in focus 

Spot prices were just below a record high of $2,589.78 an ounce hit earlier this week. 

Gold’s biggest point of support was growing conviction that the Fed will at the conclusion of a meeting later on Wednesday.

While markets were initially split over a 25 or 50 basis point cut, showed expectations shifting towards a 50 bps reduction in recent sessions.

Bets on a 50 bps cut persisted even as recent and inflation data read stronger than expected, reflecting some resilience in the U.S. economy.

But concerns over a weakening labor market are expected to see the Fed kick off an easing cycle that could bring interest rates lower by at least 100 bps by the end of 2024.

Lower rates bode well for gold and other precious metals, given that they herald a lower opportunity cost to invest in non-yielding assets. 

But other precious metals lagged gold, with down 0.5% to $983.90 an ounce, while fell 0.5% to $30.837 an ounce.

Copper slides as China markets reopen 

Among industrial metals, copper prices fell on Wednesday as markets in top importer China reopened after a long weekend, with local traders reacting to more weak economic data from the country.

Benchmark on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.6% to $9,326.50 a ton, while one-month fell 0.9% to $4.2475 a pound. 

Weak industrial production and retail sales data from China, released over the weekend, pointed to sustained weakness in the country’s biggest economic engines, which traders feared could further dent its appetite for copper.

But the weak readings also spurred some bets that Beijing will be forced into rolling out more stimulus measures, which could boost near-term growth and help buoy copper demand. 

This notion helped limit overall losses in copper.

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Commodities

Oil prices fall on signs of US inventory build; rate cut in focus

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Investing.com– Oil prices fell in Asian trade on Wednesday, cutting short a recent rebound as industry data showed an unexpected increase in U.S. inventories. 

But prices were sitting on strong gains over the past week as persistent supply disruptions from Hurricane Francine and the prospect of lower rates saw traders pile into crude at heavily discounted levels. 

An escalation in Middle East tensions also helped spur some demand for crude, as Hezbollah vowed retaliation against Israel after accusing it of detonating pagers across Lebanon this week. 

fell 0.4% to $73.41 a barrel, while fell 0.4% to $69.69 a barrel by 21:17 ET (01:17 GMT). Both contracts rose sharply from near three-year lows over the past week.

US inventories unexpectedly increase- API 

Data from the showed U.S. oil inventories saw an unexpected build in the week to September 13.

Inventories grew by 1.96 million barrels, compared to expectations for a draw of 0.1 mb and a 2.79 mb draw from the prior week. 

The reading comes after official data last week showed a build in U.S. inventories, indicating that demand in the world’s biggest fuel consumer was cooling with the end of the travel-heavy summer season.

The API data usually heralds a similar reading from , which is due later on Wednesday. The unexpected build also indicates limited, actual disruptions to production from Hurricane Francine, which barreled through the Gulf of Mexico last week. 

Demand concerns, rate cuts in focus 

Chinese markets reopened on Wednesday after an extended holiday, with local traders reacting to a barrage of weak economic readings from the country. 

The readings had ramped up concerns over slowing growth in the world’s biggest oil importer, which could potentially dent its appetite for crude. 

Markets were also on edge before the conclusion of a two-day later in the day, where the central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates for the first time in over four years.

Markets are split between expectations for a 25 or 50 basis point reduction.

Anticipation of Wednesday’s decision pulled down the dollar, which helped spur some gains in crude.

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Chevron CEO hits Biden’s natural gas policies, says fuel is crucial for AI

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By Sabrina Valle

HOUSTON (Reuters) -Chevron CEO Michael Wirth on Tuesday criticized U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration for what he described as “attacks on the natural gas” industry and emphasized the crucial role of Permian in powering the rapid growth of artificial intelligence (AI).

The CEO’s remarks followed new government plans over policies to prevent power-hungry AI data centers from undercutting U.S. climate goals. Last week, the White House launched a task force on AI Datacenter Infrastructure to coordinate policies in line with the government’s economic and environmental goals.

Wirth defended leveraging low-carbon gas over coal to meet the increasing energy demands of the AI sector.

“AI’s advance will depend not only on the design labs of Silicon Valley, but also on the gas fields of the Permian basin,” Wirth said at Gastech conference in Houston.

Chevron (NYSE:), the No.2 U.S. oil producer, is one of the top players in the Permian basin that straddles Texas and New Mexico. The Permian is the biggest U.S. oilfield and accounts for 15% of the nation’s gas output.

Wirth said the Biden administration’s approach to pause liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports “elevates politics over progress.”

In January, Biden announced the pause on approvals for pending and future applications to export LNG from new projects, a move cheered by climate activists, that could delay decisions on new plants until after the Nov. 5 election.

He argued that a moratorium on LNG exports would increase energy costs, threaten reliable supplies, and slow the switch from coal to natural gas, leading to more emissions rather than less.

“Instead of imposing a moratorium on LNG exports, the administration should stop the attacks on natural gas,” he added.

Wirth underscored the role of gas in reducing global carbon emissions, citing data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) that attributed over a third of total global greenhouse gas emissions in 2022 to coal combustion.

Switching from coal to gas, he suggested, could be “the single greatest carbon reduction initiative in history.”

“The case for natural gas is so strong that only politics can get in the way,” he said.

© Reuters. Chevron CEO Michael Wirth gives the keynote address as top energy executives and ministers meet in Houston for the annual Gastech conference in Houston, Texas, U.S., September 17, 2024. REUTERS/Callaghan O'Hare

In the midst of the global desire to decarbonize, Wirth stressed the need for a stable and predictable policy environment to ensure gas remains a reliable energy source.

He outlined three pillars for a balanced energy future: political support for gas as a key to a lower carbon future; recognition of the progress made in deploying new technologies and gas solutions; and understanding that the energy transition requires unprecedented innovation and collaboration.

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