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Factbox-What is OPEC+ and how does it impact oil prices?

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Factbox-What is OPEC+ and how does it impact oil prices?
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Austrian police officers stand in front of the OPEC headquarters in Vienna, Austria, June 3, 2023. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Photo

(Reuters) – The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia, are known as OPEC+ and will meet in Vienna, Austria, on Nov. 26 to discuss their joint output policy.

Below are key facts about OPEC+ and its role.

What are OPEC and OPEC+?

OPEC was founded in 1960 in Baghdad by Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela with an aim of coordinating petroleum policies and securing fair and stable prices. Now, it includes 13 countries, which are mainly from the Middle East and Africa. They produce around 30% of the world’s oil.

There have been some challenges to OPEC’s influence over the years, often resulting in internal divisions, and a global push towards cleaner energy sources and a move away from fossil fuels could ultimately diminish its dominance.

OPEC formed the so-called OPEC+ coalition with 10 of the world’s major non-OPEC oil-exporting nations, including Russia, at the end of 2016.

OPEC+ represents around 40% of world oil production and its main objective is to regulate the supply of oil to the world market. The leaders are Saudi Arabia and Russia, which produce around 9 and 9.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil, respectively.

How does OPEC influence global oil prices?

OPEC member states’ exports make up around 60% of global petroleum trade. In 2021, OPEC estimated that its member countries accounted for more than 80% of the world’s proven oil reserves.

Because of the large market share, the decisions OPEC makes can affect global oil prices. Its members meet regularly to decide how much oil to sell on global markets.

As a result, when they lower supply when demand falls, oil prices tend to rise. Prices tend to fall when the group decides to supply more oil to the market.

At the last OPEC+ meeting in June, Saudi Arabia pledged to make a deep cut of 1 million bpd to its output in July on top of a broader OPEC+ deal to limit supply into 2024 as the group sought to boost flagging oil prices.

Since then, Saudi Arabia has extended the additional voluntary cut until the end of this year.

Oil prices on Nov. 16 slumped by about 5% to a four-month low amid economic growth concerns. They have since recovered some ground on expectations that OPEC+ will take action to shore up prices.

Prices, however, have largely brushed off rising tensions in the Middle East.

How do OPEC decisions affect the global economy?

Some of the production cut decisions have had significant effects on the global economy.

During the 1973 Arab-Israeli War, Arab members of OPEC imposed an embargo against the United States in retaliation for its decision to re-supply the Israeli military, as well as other countries that supported Israel. The embargo banned petroleum exports to those nations and introduced cuts in oil production.

The oil embargo pressured an already strained U.S. economy which had grown dependent on imported oil. Oil prices jumped, causing high fuel costs for consumers and fuel shortages in the United States. The embargo also brought the United States and other countries to the brink of a global recession.

In 2020, during COVID-19 lockdowns around the world, prices slumped. After that development, OPEC+ slashed oil production by 10 million barrels a day, which is equivalent to around 10% of global production, to try to bolster prices.

Which countries are OPEC members?

The current members of OPEC are: Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, Algeria, Angola, Libya, Nigeria, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon and Venezuela.

Non-OPEC countries in the global alliance of OPEC+ are represented by Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Bahrain, Brunei, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, South Sudan and Sudan.

Sources: Reuters news, World Economic Forum website, OPEC website, U.S. Department of State website

Commodities

Gold prices edge higher, record highs in sight amid rate cut bets

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Investing.com– Gold prices rose slightly in Asian trade on Wednesday, keeping recent record highs in sight as traders waited to see just by how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. 

Bullion prices briefly hit record highs this week amid growing expectations for a 50 basis point cut, which dented the dollar and Treasury yields. But some stronger-than-expected U.S. data complicated expectations of a large rate cut.

rose 0.2% to $2,574.15 an ounce, while rose 0.3% to $2,600.40 an ounce by 00:16 ET (04:16 GMT). 

Gold just below record highs with rate cuts in focus 

Spot prices were just below a record high of $2,589.78 an ounce hit earlier this week. 

Gold’s biggest point of support was growing conviction that the Fed will at the conclusion of a meeting later on Wednesday.

While markets were initially split over a 25 or 50 basis point cut, showed expectations shifting towards a 50 bps reduction in recent sessions.

Bets on a 50 bps cut persisted even as recent and inflation data read stronger than expected, reflecting some resilience in the U.S. economy.

But concerns over a weakening labor market are expected to see the Fed kick off an easing cycle that could bring interest rates lower by at least 100 bps by the end of 2024.

Lower rates bode well for gold and other precious metals, given that they herald a lower opportunity cost to invest in non-yielding assets. 

But other precious metals lagged gold, with down 0.5% to $983.90 an ounce, while fell 0.5% to $30.837 an ounce.

Copper slides as China markets reopen 

Among industrial metals, copper prices fell on Wednesday as markets in top importer China reopened after a long weekend, with local traders reacting to more weak economic data from the country.

Benchmark on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.6% to $9,326.50 a ton, while one-month fell 0.9% to $4.2475 a pound. 

Weak industrial production and retail sales data from China, released over the weekend, pointed to sustained weakness in the country’s biggest economic engines, which traders feared could further dent its appetite for copper.

But the weak readings also spurred some bets that Beijing will be forced into rolling out more stimulus measures, which could boost near-term growth and help buoy copper demand. 

This notion helped limit overall losses in copper.

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Oil prices fall on signs of US inventory build; rate cut in focus

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Investing.com– Oil prices fell in Asian trade on Wednesday, cutting short a recent rebound as industry data showed an unexpected increase in U.S. inventories. 

But prices were sitting on strong gains over the past week as persistent supply disruptions from Hurricane Francine and the prospect of lower rates saw traders pile into crude at heavily discounted levels. 

An escalation in Middle East tensions also helped spur some demand for crude, as Hezbollah vowed retaliation against Israel after accusing it of detonating pagers across Lebanon this week. 

fell 0.4% to $73.41 a barrel, while fell 0.4% to $69.69 a barrel by 21:17 ET (01:17 GMT). Both contracts rose sharply from near three-year lows over the past week.

US inventories unexpectedly increase- API 

Data from the showed U.S. oil inventories saw an unexpected build in the week to September 13.

Inventories grew by 1.96 million barrels, compared to expectations for a draw of 0.1 mb and a 2.79 mb draw from the prior week. 

The reading comes after official data last week showed a build in U.S. inventories, indicating that demand in the world’s biggest fuel consumer was cooling with the end of the travel-heavy summer season.

The API data usually heralds a similar reading from , which is due later on Wednesday. The unexpected build also indicates limited, actual disruptions to production from Hurricane Francine, which barreled through the Gulf of Mexico last week. 

Demand concerns, rate cuts in focus 

Chinese markets reopened on Wednesday after an extended holiday, with local traders reacting to a barrage of weak economic readings from the country. 

The readings had ramped up concerns over slowing growth in the world’s biggest oil importer, which could potentially dent its appetite for crude. 

Markets were also on edge before the conclusion of a two-day later in the day, where the central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates for the first time in over four years.

Markets are split between expectations for a 25 or 50 basis point reduction.

Anticipation of Wednesday’s decision pulled down the dollar, which helped spur some gains in crude.

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Chevron CEO hits Biden’s natural gas policies, says fuel is crucial for AI

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By Sabrina Valle

HOUSTON (Reuters) -Chevron CEO Michael Wirth on Tuesday criticized U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration for what he described as “attacks on the natural gas” industry and emphasized the crucial role of Permian in powering the rapid growth of artificial intelligence (AI).

The CEO’s remarks followed new government plans over policies to prevent power-hungry AI data centers from undercutting U.S. climate goals. Last week, the White House launched a task force on AI Datacenter Infrastructure to coordinate policies in line with the government’s economic and environmental goals.

Wirth defended leveraging low-carbon gas over coal to meet the increasing energy demands of the AI sector.

“AI’s advance will depend not only on the design labs of Silicon Valley, but also on the gas fields of the Permian basin,” Wirth said at Gastech conference in Houston.

Chevron (NYSE:), the No.2 U.S. oil producer, is one of the top players in the Permian basin that straddles Texas and New Mexico. The Permian is the biggest U.S. oilfield and accounts for 15% of the nation’s gas output.

Wirth said the Biden administration’s approach to pause liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports “elevates politics over progress.”

In January, Biden announced the pause on approvals for pending and future applications to export LNG from new projects, a move cheered by climate activists, that could delay decisions on new plants until after the Nov. 5 election.

He argued that a moratorium on LNG exports would increase energy costs, threaten reliable supplies, and slow the switch from coal to natural gas, leading to more emissions rather than less.

“Instead of imposing a moratorium on LNG exports, the administration should stop the attacks on natural gas,” he added.

Wirth underscored the role of gas in reducing global carbon emissions, citing data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) that attributed over a third of total global greenhouse gas emissions in 2022 to coal combustion.

Switching from coal to gas, he suggested, could be “the single greatest carbon reduction initiative in history.”

“The case for natural gas is so strong that only politics can get in the way,” he said.

© Reuters. Chevron CEO Michael Wirth gives the keynote address as top energy executives and ministers meet in Houston for the annual Gastech conference in Houston, Texas, U.S., September 17, 2024. REUTERS/Callaghan O'Hare

In the midst of the global desire to decarbonize, Wirth stressed the need for a stable and predictable policy environment to ensure gas remains a reliable energy source.

He outlined three pillars for a balanced energy future: political support for gas as a key to a lower carbon future; recognition of the progress made in deploying new technologies and gas solutions; and understanding that the energy transition requires unprecedented innovation and collaboration.

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